Liu Bowen
Investment consulting license number: Z0014252
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI index closed at 2240 on 6/30 points, month-on-month +2.5%, year-on-year -34.5%.
2. Container freight rate: The SCFI Shanghai export container freight comprehensive index for the week of June 24 was reported at 4216.13, -0.1% month-on-month, and -11.0% year-on-year. Among them, the SCFI China-US West route container freight rate was 7378 US dollars/FEU, month-on-month. -1.5%, +56.4% year-on-year; SCFI China-Europe route container freight rate was US$5,766/FEU, -2.7% month-on-month, -11.0% year-on-year.
3. Maersk stated that due to the current emergency situation at the Port of La Spezia and in order to continue to provide global services to customers, Maersk is imposing a peak season surcharge of 150 euros on all import and export trucks entering and exiting the Port of La Spezia. Effective July 1, 2022.
4. Hapag-Lloyd said that congestion in the French ports of Le Havre and Vos Ports has reached critical levels. As a result, both ports will impose a congestion surcharge. This surcharge applies to all import and export truck carrier shipments of all types of containers.
5. Alphaliner has assessed one-year container ship charter rates based on average rates over time. The current rental valuation of an 8,500-TEU container ship is US$150,000 per day, which is slightly lower than the record-breaking US$155,000 from the end of March to mid-April, but a year-on-year increase of 114%; the rental valuation of a 5,600-TEU container ship is US$130,000 per day is the highest ever, a year-on-year increase of 110%.
6. Most shipping: The French government urges CMA CGM and others to share profits to ease the pressure of domestic inflation and economic recession.
[Market Outlook]
Containers, on the demand side, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, demand-side pressure is gradually emerging. In the United States, the impact of inflation on demand is the biggest problem currently facing it. At present, many domestic retailers in the United States have high inventories, and import demand during the peak season is still facing challenges. In Europe, due to the emergence of the new coronavirus Omicron subtype and the continued spread of the monkeypox virus, the epidemic is still severe; the geopolitical risks caused by the superimposed Russia-Ukraine conflict have not yet been alleviated, and high inflation continues to drag down the economic recovery of the European region in the medium and long term. In the short term, the relaxation of the epidemic in China is expected to accelerate the pace of downstream consumption and the resumption of work and production by enterprises. Shipping volume is expected to gradually recover during the peak season and congestion at European ports intensifies. Container freight rates are still expected to rebound. However, due to the impact of rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the labor negotiations between the United States and the West on July 1.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, orders on hand are still at a low level, and dry bulk carriers shipping capacity will not be able to increase in volume in the next 2-3 years. On the demand side, rare high-temperature weather has occurred in many places around the world this year. Coupled with the recent lifting of thermal power restrictions in Europe, Europe still has a demand for coal after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Especially with the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, coal demand is expected to increase. In terms of iron ore, steel mills' profit losses and China may face policy production restrictions in the second half of the year will reduce production pressure. However, the expected recovery of real estate still provides support for steel demand. In terms of food, global food transportation demand is generally stable. Currently, India and Russia have restarted the new route of the "North-South Corridor Plan" to transport goods from Russia to India via Iran . On June 30, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that, The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation completed its designated mission on Snake Island and withdrew the garrison there on the same day, so that Ukrainian grain could be exported smoothly, and the short-term grain trade is expected to improve. With the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are still expected to fluctuate upward.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
The cbot soybean index rose by 0.15% to close at 1477.25 cents/bu, and the U.S. soybean meal index rose by 1% to close at 412 US dollars/short ton;
[Important information]
1.USDA: The soybean planting area in the United States in 2022 is estimated at 88.325 million acres, compared with the previous estimate of 90.446 million acres and the March estimate of 90.955 million acres. The soybean harvest area in the United States in 2022 is expected to be 87.511 million acres;
2. USDA: June 1 Soybean stocks in the current season were 971.44 million bushels. The previous market estimate was 965 million bushels. In the same period last year, they were 5.76904 billion bushels;
3. USDA: As of the week of June 23, 2022, the U.S. 21/22 market year net soybean exports Sales of -120,000 tons (expected to be between -100,000 and 300,000 tons), compared with 29,000 tons the previous week; net soybean export sales in the 22/23 market year are expected to be 128,000 tons (ranging between 100,000 and 500,000 tons), compared with 29,000 tons the previous week. 265,000 tons;
4. Oil World: During April-June 2022, sunflower meal imports exceeded expectations and reached 600,000-650,000 tons. This occurred after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24. It was originally expected that imports from the two countries would be The sharp decline can only be partially offset by the increase in Argentina . However, the recent EU weekly export data shows that imports from Russia are 10% higher than the same period last year due to a shortage of rapeseed meal and high sunflower meal prices; As a result, it did not give a clear direction. USDA also stated that it will re-investigate the planting area in some states in August, and the short-term market will trade other more fair areas. Although the weather is not a big problem, it is expected that the bottom support still exists, and the short term is expected to be mainly volatile;
2. Arbitrage: 09 The price difference of soybean meal is recommended to continue to be backed by the 500 line to intervene and narrow, and the general direction of the operating range is between the 400-500 range ;
3. Options: It is recommended to continue to hold a bearish bull spread position, buy M2209-P-4200 and sell M2209-P-4100 for bearish bull spreads, buy RM2209-P-3800 and sell RM2209-P-3650 for bearish bull spreads. Hold the price difference (views are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling)
Oils and fats sector
[External disk impact]
Cbot The main price of crude soybean oil fell by 3.8% to 64.44 cents/pound; the main price of bmd crude palm oil fell by 3% overnight to 4765lin git.
[Important information]
1. Septian Hario Seto, deputy director of the Maritime Affairs Coordination Office and Acting Investment Coordination and Mining Minister of Investment, said that the Indonesian government plans to require the palm oil content of local diesel to increase from the current 30% to 35%.
2. On June 28-29, the number of trucks arriving at the Port of Rosario, Argentina dropped by approximately 80%. Truck driver strikes and road congestion reduced the number of trucks arriving at the port. A nationwide strike in Argentina is expected to begin on July 13.
3. It is expected that the production of Indonesian biodiesel will increase by 130,000 tons to 7.6 million tons from January to December 2022. The recent sharp drop in prices is conducive to the implementation of the current B30 mandatory blending ratio. The recent domestic palm oil price in Indonesia is lower than the price of diesel. , live firewood consumption may exceed mandatory blending levels. Due to improved price competitiveness, Indonesian firewood exports are expected to grow during the rest of the year.
4. Russian sunflower oil exports from April to June exceeded market expectations. From April to May, Russian sunflower seed crushing volume hit a record of 2.7 million tons. .
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: The export pressure caused by Indonesian palm oil's expanding inventory is still there, and the macro sentiment is weak. It is expected that oil will continue to bottom out in the near future, and p09 prices are expected to drop to the 9,000 level. In the medium term, domestic oil and fat consumption is expected to recover in the third quarter. The recovery rate of low inventories will be slower than expected, and the probability of macroeconomic changes is unlikely. In addition, the pogo price difference will be restored, and the profits of raw firewood will appear. There is room for rebound in oil and fat in the medium term. In short-term operations, it is recommended to go short following the trend.
2. Arbitrage: You can continue to hold the y91 positive set, with a target of around 300; you can partially take profit and leave the market with the rape oil 91 positive set, and hold part of it.
3. Options: Continue to hold oil’s secondary point price strategy.(The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
Corn/Corn Starch
[Important Information]
1. According to the latest survey data of 47 large-scale feed companies in 18 provinces across the country by the Mysteel corn team, as of June 30, The average corn inventory of feed companies is 34.08 days, a week-on-week decrease of 3.04 days, a decrease of 8.19%, and an increase of 13.13% over the same period last year.
2. As of June 1, 2022, the total stock of old-crop corn in the United States was 4.35 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, farm stocks were 2.12 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of 22%; non-farm stocks were 2.23 billion bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Corn consumption from March to May 2022 was 3.41 billion bushels, compared with 3.58 billion bushels in the same period last year.
3. As of June 1, 2022, the total inventory of all wheat in the United States was 660 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, farm stocks were 93 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 34%; non-farm stocks were 567 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. Wheat consumption from March to May 2022 was 364 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 22%.
4. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the corn acreage is estimated at 89.921 million acres, higher than the average analyst estimate of 89.861 million acres and higher than the March estimate of 89.49 million acres.
5. The export sales report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday showed that in the week ending June 23, U.S. corn export sales for the 2021/22 market year increased by 88,800 tons, setting a low for the 2021/22 market year, higher than the previous A week-on-week decrease of 87% and a 72% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The previous market estimate was a net increase of 200,000-700,000 tons. That week, U.S. corn export sales for 2022/2023 increased by 119,300 tons, and market estimates were for a net increase of 100,000-500,000 tons.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: U.S. corn planting area and quarterly grain stocks are higher than analysts’ average expectations, and export sales data are also lower than expected. U.S. corn still has correction pressure, and domestic futures prices are at a substantial discount to spot prices. It is expected that There is not much room for further declines, but the downward trend in the external market is still dragging down the domestic market, so it is better to wait and see for the time being.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2740 and sell c2209-C-2900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Pigs
[Market Information]
1. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs continued to increase steadily yesterday evening. Among them, Northeast China is 20-20.6 yuan/kg, which remains stable compared with the previous day; North China is 20.2-20.6 yuan/kg, which is stable than the previous day; East China is 20.4-21 yuan/kg, which is stable than the previous day; South China is 20.4 -22.6 yuan/kg, up 0.4-0.6 yuan/kg from the previous day; Southwest 19.2-19.6 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day;
2. Piglet and sow prices: as of the week of June 23 , the price of 15 kilogram piglets is 625 yuan/head, down 8 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows is 1,798 yuan, down 16 yuan from last week;
3. Federal Bureau of Statistics: As of May 3, 2022, the German pig population is 2,230 Thousands of pigs, which is the lowest pig population record in recent years. Compared with November 3, 2021, the inventory decreased by 6.2%, or 1.48 million heads. The third major decline in a row. Compared with May 3, 2021, there was a decrease of 9.8%, or 2.42 million heads, of which the number of fattening pigs was 10.3 million, a decrease of 6.7%, or 735,800 heads, compared with November 2021. The number of pigs under 50 kilograms was 3.8 million, a decrease of 10.1% (-423,000). There are 1.5 million breeding sows in stock, a decrease of 6.2% or 98,700 from November 2021;
4. Shanxi Provincial Department of Health : Prevent the influx of African swine fever foreign I177L gene deletion vaccine, and particularly emphasize the strengthening of efforts in Guangxi, Guangxi and The intensity of inspection of live pigs and pig products imported from border provinces such as Yunnan. Pigs that have been immunized with illegal vaccines by farmers will be deemed to be African swine fever-infected pigs if tested positive, and will be culled without subsidies.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The increase in spot prices has begun to slow down, and the pig weight gain in the second quarter is the highest level in the same period in history, which in turn affects the supply of pork in the current period, which is obviously beneficial to the spot aspect, but excessive weight gain may As a result, the supply has increased significantly, and the production capacity pressure is expected on the market outlook. It is recommended to wait and see with short positions in the near future or participate in short selling far-month contracts on rallies;
2. Arbitrage: wait for the 9-11 arbitrage opportunity (the above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market) )
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The mainstream quotation in front of the Shandong white feather broiler shed last night was about 4.65 yuan/jin, and the slaughterhouses increased the price normally. It is expected that the price in front of Shandong chicken sheds will be stable tonight. The mainstream quotation in front of mainstream sheds in Shandong is about 4.65 yuan/jin, with normal price increases.
(My Agricultural Products Network)
2. White-feathered broiler chicks: On July 1st and July 2nd, the price of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Dachang was 2.10 yuan/bird, and the transaction price of Shandong Zhongda Factory’s broiler chicks was 1.50-1.90 yuan/bird, small The transaction price of factory chicks is 0.90-1.50 yuan/bird. (My Agricultural Products Network)
3. Split products: On June 30, the price of frozen breasts in Northeast and North China was stable, with the price of frozen breasts at 10.3-10.7 yuan/kg.
4. Zhuochuang Information : In the week of June 30th, Zhuochuang Information monitored the emergence of white-feather broiler sample enterprises to a total of 47.823 million chickens, a month-on-month increase of 1.44% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.98%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week of June 30 was 56.65%, a month-on-month increase of 3.06 percentage points; the average frozen product storage capacity rate was 69.06%, a month-on-month increase of 3.06 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: The total number of white-feathered broiler chickens sold in May 2022 was 390 million, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. From January to May 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 1.857 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%.
7. White Feather Broiler Association: Association sampling data shows that as of the week of June 19, 2022, there were 31.7268 million sets of white feather parent breeder chickens, -0.5% year-on-year, which was the same as at the beginning of the year. Among them, there are 12.4795 million sets of replacement parent breeder chickens, -13.8% year-on-year, and -8.0% compared to the beginning of the year. There are 19.2473 million sets of active parent breeder chickens, +10.6% year-on-year, and +6.0% compared to the beginning of the year.
8. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) show that international poultry meat prices soared in May, with a month-on-month increase of 5.5%. Since 2022, international poultry meat prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the month-on-month increases from March to May being 5.6%, 3.8%, and 5.5% respectively. FAO said that international poultry meat prices pushed the international meat price index to 122.0 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, a record high.
[Market Outlook]
As the slaughter volume of chickens gradually recovers, the slaughterhouse operation and storage capacity ratio both increased this week. On the consumer side, dine-in dining has been gradually resumed in Shanghai since June 29. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has canceled the "star" mark on communication itinerary cards. The national epidemic prevention and control policy has recently been relaxed, which is conducive to the recovery of downstream consumption. At present, affected by the high temperature, most farmers still have a strong mentality of avoiding the "dog days of and " and are cautious in breeding and replenishing the flocks. After the recent sharp decline, the chickens are expected to stabilize due to the support of costs. As college holidays gradually begin in the future, the group meal channel is expected to be suppressed. However, the short-term supply of raw chickens is still limited and due to policy stimulus on the consumer side, short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. In the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, the price of raw chickens is expected to rise, but the overall price will remain high and volatile. In terms of rhythm, with the arrival of the Q3 peak season, the price of raw chicken is expected to exceed the price high in the second quarter.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot stock: Yesterday, the mainstream prices across the country increased steadily. The average price in the main production areas was 4.07 yuan/jin, which was 0.04 higher than the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 4.29 yuan/jin. , the price increased by 0.05 compared with the previous trading day. Today, egg prices across the country are mainly stable. Prices in the Beijing market are stable. The wholesale prices of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream prices are 184 yuan/44 pounds, which is the same as yesterday’s price. As of 7 o’clock in the morning, a total of 9 trucks have arrived on the Great Ocean Road. The arrival of goods has increased, and the goods are shipped normally. The mainstream wholesale price is 180-190 yuan/44 pounds, which is stable compared with yesterday's price.Today, the price of eggs in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang is stable; the price in Shandong continues to remain stable, the price in Henan is stable, the price in Shanxi, Hebei is stable, the price in Hubei is stable, the price in Jiangsu and Anhui is stable, and the price of local eggs is high and low. The market continues to fluctuate and consolidate, but the market is generally weak.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of June 24 was 15.76 million, a 6.4% decrease from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring and statistics on the culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of June 30 was 502 days, which was the same as the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of June 30 were 7,272 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of June 30, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the circulation eased inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.46 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.94 days. , a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was stable. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 5.94 yuan/jin, which was the same as the previous trading day.
7. According to customs data, my country’s total export volume of fresh eggs in May 2022 was 8,621.3 tons, an increase of 1.72% from April and a year-on-year increase of 56.38% from May 2021. This is already since February, my country’s export volume It has shown a growth trend for three consecutive months; my country's fresh egg exports have increased significantly since entering 2022, and the cumulative export volume from January to May 2022 increased by 38.17% compared with the same period last year.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continued to recover but at a slow pace. However, the egg production rate dropped due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply was acceptable. On the demand side, consumption in the rainy season is over, and consumption in the peak season of and Mid-Autumn Festival in July is about to begin. And after the recent relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, catering and tourism consumption will recover in the later period. It is expected that egg prices will gradually strengthen after hitting the bottom. Recently, the commodity has fallen overall, feed costs have also declined, and the cost support range has been lowered overall. In terms of futures, judging from the current situation, the inventory in September is still expected to be low and consumer prices should be relatively strong during the peak season. However, the recent general decline in commodities, the logic of lower feed costs in market transactions, and the focus of egg prices have shifted downward. It is recommended to wait and see. Wait for stabilization before opening a long position.
2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. Indian trade sources recently said that India is considering allowing sugar mills to ship out the raw sugar inventory piled up in ports and warehouses. A few weeks ago, India imposed restrictions on sugar exports. India is the world's largest sugar exporter after Brazil , and increased exports may put raw sugar futures under pressure. ICE raw sugar futures prices are near their lowest levels in four months. Last month, India limited exports for the current year to 10 million tons, a figure it has almost reached, to prevent domestic prices from surging. Of India's record 10 million tons of sugar exports this year, raw sugar accounts for about 4.5 million tons, with the rest being white sugar.
2. According to preliminary information provided by traders on Thursday, the raw sugar delivery volume of the July expiration contract of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is expected to be 9,897 lots, or about 502,000 tons, which is not a lot from historical data. It is said that Louis Dreyfus Company is the largest recipient, with a quantity of 5,128 lots, or approximately 260,000 tons, while commodity trader Viterra is the largest supplier, with a quantity of 4,528 lots, or 230,000 tons.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: Raw sugar delivery in July, the delivery volume is not large, and Brazil’s exports are good, indicating that the current market demand is good, and attention is paid to whether raw sugar can stabilize in the near future. The room for correction of short-term futures prices is expected to be basically in place. As the temperature rises, consumption will gradually increase, which will help strengthen futures and spot prices. You can gradually try to establish multiple orders. Liu Bowen Investment consulting license number: Z0014252 Shipping/container capacity [Important information] 1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI index closed at 2240 on 6/30 points, month-on-month +2.5%, year-on-year -34.5%. 2. Container freight rate: The SCFI Shanghai export container freight comprehensive index for the week of June 24 was reported at 4216.13, -0.1% month-on-month, and -11.0% year-on-year. Among them, the SCFI China-US West route container freight rate was 7378 US dollars/FEU, month-on-month. -1.5%, +56.4% year-on-year; SCFI China-Europe route container freight rate was US$5,766/FEU, -2.7% month-on-month, -11.0% year-on-year. 3. Maersk stated that due to the current emergency situation at the Port of La Spezia and in order to continue to provide global services to customers, Maersk is imposing a peak season surcharge of 150 euros on all import and export trucks entering and exiting the Port of La Spezia. Effective July 1, 2022. 4. Hapag-Lloyd said that congestion in the French ports of Le Havre and Vos Ports has reached critical levels. As a result, both ports will impose a congestion surcharge. This surcharge applies to all import and export truck carrier shipments of all types of containers. 5. Alphaliner has assessed one-year container ship charter rates based on average rates over time. The current rental valuation of an 8,500-TEU container ship is US$150,000 per day, which is slightly lower than the record-breaking US$155,000 from the end of March to mid-April, but a year-on-year increase of 114%; the rental valuation of a 5,600-TEU container ship is US$130,000 per day is the highest ever, a year-on-year increase of 110%. 6. Most shipping: The French government urges CMA CGM and others to share profits to ease the pressure of domestic inflation and economic recession. [Market Outlook] Containers, on the demand side, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, demand-side pressure is gradually emerging. In the United States, the impact of inflation on demand is the biggest problem currently facing it. At present, many domestic retailers in the United States have high inventories, and import demand during the peak season is still facing challenges. In Europe, due to the emergence of the new coronavirus Omicron subtype and the continued spread of the monkeypox virus, the epidemic is still severe; the geopolitical risks caused by the superimposed Russia-Ukraine conflict have not yet been alleviated, and high inflation continues to drag down the economic recovery of the European region in the medium and long term. In the short term, the relaxation of the epidemic in China is expected to accelerate the pace of downstream consumption and the resumption of work and production by enterprises. Shipping volume is expected to gradually recover during the peak season and congestion at European ports intensifies. Container freight rates are still expected to rebound. However, due to the impact of rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, it is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound. In the short term, we still need to pay attention to the labor negotiations between the United States and the West on July 1. In terms of dry bulk cargo, orders on hand are still at a low level, and dry bulk carriers shipping capacity will not be able to increase in volume in the next 2-3 years. On the demand side, rare high-temperature weather has occurred in many places around the world this year. Coupled with the recent lifting of thermal power restrictions in Europe, Europe still has a demand for coal after the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Especially with the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, coal demand is expected to increase. In terms of iron ore, steel mills' profit losses and China may face policy production restrictions in the second half of the year will reduce production pressure. However, the expected recovery of real estate still provides support for steel demand. In terms of food, global food transportation demand is generally stable. Currently, India and Russia have restarted the new route of the "North-South Corridor Plan" to transport goods from Russia to India via Iran . On June 30, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced that, The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation completed its designated mission on Snake Island and withdrew the garrison there on the same day, so that Ukrainian grain could be exported smoothly, and the short-term grain trade is expected to improve. With the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are still expected to fluctuate upward. Soybean/meal [External market situation] The cbot soybean index rose by 0.15% to close at 1477.25 cents/bu, and the U.S. soybean meal index rose by 1% to close at 412 US dollars/short ton; [Important information] 1.USDA: The soybean planting area in the United States in 2022 is estimated at 88.325 million acres, compared with the previous estimate of 90.446 million acres and the March estimate of 90.955 million acres. The soybean harvest area in the United States in 2022 is expected to be 87.511 million acres; 2. USDA: June 1 Soybean stocks in the current season were 971.44 million bushels. The previous market estimate was 965 million bushels. In the same period last year, they were 5.76904 billion bushels; 3. USDA: As of the week of June 23, 2022, the U.S. 21/22 market year net soybean exports Sales of -120,000 tons (expected to be between -100,000 and 300,000 tons), compared with 29,000 tons the previous week; net soybean export sales in the 22/23 market year are expected to be 128,000 tons (ranging between 100,000 and 500,000 tons), compared with 29,000 tons the previous week. 265,000 tons; 4. Oil World: During April-June 2022, sunflower meal imports exceeded expectations and reached 600,000-650,000 tons. This occurred after the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on February 24. It was originally expected that imports from the two countries would be The sharp decline can only be partially offset by the increase in Argentina . However, the recent EU weekly export data shows that imports from Russia are 10% higher than the same period last year due to a shortage of rapeseed meal and high sunflower meal prices; As a result, it did not give a clear direction. USDA also stated that it will re-investigate the planting area in some states in August, and the short-term market will trade other more fair areas. Although the weather is not a big problem, it is expected that the bottom support still exists, and the short term is expected to be mainly volatile; 2. Arbitrage: 09 The price difference of soybean meal is recommended to continue to be backed by the 500 line to intervene and narrow, and the general direction of the operating range is between the 400-500 range ; 3. Options: It is recommended to continue to hold a bearish bull spread position, buy M2209-P-4200 and sell M2209-P-4100 for bearish bull spreads, buy RM2209-P-3800 and sell RM2209-P-3650 for bearish bull spreads. Hold the price difference (views are for reference only, not as a basis for buying and selling) Oils and fats sector [External disk impact] Cbot The main price of crude soybean oil fell by 3.8% to 64.44 cents/pound; the main price of bmd crude palm oil fell by 3% overnight to 4765lin git. [Important information] 1. Septian Hario Seto, deputy director of the Maritime Affairs Coordination Office and Acting Investment Coordination and Mining Minister of Investment, said that the Indonesian government plans to require the palm oil content of local diesel to increase from the current 30% to 35%. 2. On June 28-29, the number of trucks arriving at the Port of Rosario, Argentina dropped by approximately 80%. Truck driver strikes and road congestion reduced the number of trucks arriving at the port. A nationwide strike in Argentina is expected to begin on July 13. 3. It is expected that the production of Indonesian biodiesel will increase by 130,000 tons to 7.6 million tons from January to December 2022. The recent sharp drop in prices is conducive to the implementation of the current B30 mandatory blending ratio. The recent domestic palm oil price in Indonesia is lower than the price of diesel. , live firewood consumption may exceed mandatory blending levels. Due to improved price competitiveness, Indonesian firewood exports are expected to grow during the rest of the year. 4. Russian sunflower oil exports from April to June exceeded market expectations. From April to May, Russian sunflower seed crushing volume hit a record of 2.7 million tons. .
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: The export pressure caused by Indonesian palm oil's expanding inventory is still there, and the macro sentiment is weak. It is expected that oil will continue to bottom out in the near future, and p09 prices are expected to drop to the 9,000 level. In the medium term, domestic oil and fat consumption is expected to recover in the third quarter. The recovery rate of low inventories will be slower than expected, and the probability of macroeconomic changes is unlikely. In addition, the pogo price difference will be restored, and the profits of raw firewood will appear. There is room for rebound in oil and fat in the medium term. In short-term operations, it is recommended to go short following the trend.
2. Arbitrage: You can continue to hold the y91 positive set, with a target of around 300; you can partially take profit and leave the market with the rape oil 91 positive set, and hold part of it.
3. Options: Continue to hold oil’s secondary point price strategy.(The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
Corn/Corn Starch
[Important Information]
1. According to the latest survey data of 47 large-scale feed companies in 18 provinces across the country by the Mysteel corn team, as of June 30, The average corn inventory of feed companies is 34.08 days, a week-on-week decrease of 3.04 days, a decrease of 8.19%, and an increase of 13.13% over the same period last year.
2. As of June 1, 2022, the total stock of old-crop corn in the United States was 4.35 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of 6%. Among them, farm stocks were 2.12 billion bushels, a year-on-year increase of 22%; non-farm stocks were 2.23 billion bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 6%. Corn consumption from March to May 2022 was 3.41 billion bushels, compared with 3.58 billion bushels in the same period last year.
3. As of June 1, 2022, the total inventory of all wheat in the United States was 660 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 22%. Among them, farm stocks were 93 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 34%; non-farm stocks were 567 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 19%. Wheat consumption from March to May 2022 was 364 million bushels, a year-on-year decrease of 22%.
4. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said the corn acreage is estimated at 89.921 million acres, higher than the average analyst estimate of 89.861 million acres and higher than the March estimate of 89.49 million acres.
5. The export sales report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday showed that in the week ending June 23, U.S. corn export sales for the 2021/22 market year increased by 88,800 tons, setting a low for the 2021/22 market year, higher than the previous A week-on-week decrease of 87% and a 72% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The previous market estimate was a net increase of 200,000-700,000 tons. That week, U.S. corn export sales for 2022/2023 increased by 119,300 tons, and market estimates were for a net increase of 100,000-500,000 tons.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: U.S. corn planting area and quarterly grain stocks are higher than analysts’ average expectations, and export sales data are also lower than expected. U.S. corn still has correction pressure, and domestic futures prices are at a substantial discount to spot prices. It is expected that There is not much room for further declines, but the downward trend in the external market is still dragging down the domestic market, so it is better to wait and see for the time being.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2740 and sell c2209-C-2900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Pigs
[Market Information]
1. Spot quotation: The purchase price of pigs continued to increase steadily yesterday evening. Among them, Northeast China is 20-20.6 yuan/kg, which remains stable compared with the previous day; North China is 20.2-20.6 yuan/kg, which is stable than the previous day; East China is 20.4-21 yuan/kg, which is stable than the previous day; South China is 20.4 -22.6 yuan/kg, up 0.4-0.6 yuan/kg from the previous day; Southwest 19.2-19.6 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous day;
2. Piglet and sow prices: as of the week of June 23 , the price of 15 kilogram piglets is 625 yuan/head, down 8 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows is 1,798 yuan, down 16 yuan from last week;
3. Federal Bureau of Statistics: As of May 3, 2022, the German pig population is 2,230 Thousands of pigs, which is the lowest pig population record in recent years. Compared with November 3, 2021, the inventory decreased by 6.2%, or 1.48 million heads. The third major decline in a row. Compared with May 3, 2021, there was a decrease of 9.8%, or 2.42 million heads, of which the number of fattening pigs was 10.3 million, a decrease of 6.7%, or 735,800 heads, compared with November 2021. The number of pigs under 50 kilograms was 3.8 million, a decrease of 10.1% (-423,000). There are 1.5 million breeding sows in stock, a decrease of 6.2% or 98,700 from November 2021;
4. Shanxi Provincial Department of Health : Prevent the influx of African swine fever foreign I177L gene deletion vaccine, and particularly emphasize the strengthening of efforts in Guangxi, Guangxi and The intensity of inspection of live pigs and pig products imported from border provinces such as Yunnan. Pigs that have been immunized with illegal vaccines by farmers will be deemed to be African swine fever-infected pigs if tested positive, and will be culled without subsidies.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The increase in spot prices has begun to slow down, and the pig weight gain in the second quarter is the highest level in the same period in history, which in turn affects the supply of pork in the current period, which is obviously beneficial to the spot aspect, but excessive weight gain may As a result, the supply has increased significantly, and the production capacity pressure is expected on the market outlook. It is recommended to wait and see with short positions in the near future or participate in short selling far-month contracts on rallies;
2. Arbitrage: wait for the 9-11 arbitrage opportunity (the above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market) )
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The mainstream quotation in front of the Shandong white feather broiler shed last night was about 4.65 yuan/jin, and the slaughterhouses increased the price normally. It is expected that the price in front of Shandong chicken sheds will be stable tonight. The mainstream quotation in front of mainstream sheds in Shandong is about 4.65 yuan/jin, with normal price increases.
(My Agricultural Products Network)
2. White-feathered broiler chicks: On July 1st and July 2nd, the price of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Dachang was 2.10 yuan/bird, and the transaction price of Shandong Zhongda Factory’s broiler chicks was 1.50-1.90 yuan/bird, small The transaction price of factory chicks is 0.90-1.50 yuan/bird. (My Agricultural Products Network)
3. Split products: On June 30, the price of frozen breasts in Northeast and North China was stable, with the price of frozen breasts at 10.3-10.7 yuan/kg.
4. Zhuochuang Information : In the week of June 30th, Zhuochuang Information monitored the emergence of white-feather broiler sample enterprises to a total of 47.823 million chickens, a month-on-month increase of 1.44% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.98%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week of June 30 was 56.65%, a month-on-month increase of 3.06 percentage points; the average frozen product storage capacity rate was 69.06%, a month-on-month increase of 3.06 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: The total number of white-feathered broiler chickens sold in May 2022 was 390 million, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. From January to May 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 1.857 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%.
7. White Feather Broiler Association: Association sampling data shows that as of the week of June 19, 2022, there were 31.7268 million sets of white feather parent breeder chickens, -0.5% year-on-year, which was the same as at the beginning of the year. Among them, there are 12.4795 million sets of replacement parent breeder chickens, -13.8% year-on-year, and -8.0% compared to the beginning of the year. There are 19.2473 million sets of active parent breeder chickens, +10.6% year-on-year, and +6.0% compared to the beginning of the year.
8. Data from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) show that international poultry meat prices soared in May, with a month-on-month increase of 5.5%. Since 2022, international poultry meat prices have risen for three consecutive months, with the month-on-month increases from March to May being 5.6%, 3.8%, and 5.5% respectively. FAO said that international poultry meat prices pushed the international meat price index to 122.0 points, a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, a record high.
[Market Outlook]
As the slaughter volume of chickens gradually recovers, the slaughterhouse operation and storage capacity ratio both increased this week. On the consumer side, dine-in dining has been gradually resumed in Shanghai since June 29. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has canceled the "star" mark on communication itinerary cards. The national epidemic prevention and control policy has recently been relaxed, which is conducive to the recovery of downstream consumption. At present, affected by the high temperature, most farmers still have a strong mentality of avoiding the "dog days of and " and are cautious in breeding and replenishing the flocks. After the recent sharp decline, the chickens are expected to stabilize due to the support of costs. As college holidays gradually begin in the future, the group meal channel is expected to be suppressed. However, the short-term supply of raw chickens is still limited and due to policy stimulus on the consumer side, short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. In the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, the price of raw chickens is expected to rise, but the overall price will remain high and volatile. In terms of rhythm, with the arrival of the Q3 peak season, the price of raw chicken is expected to exceed the price high in the second quarter.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot stock: Yesterday, the mainstream prices across the country increased steadily. The average price in the main production areas was 4.07 yuan/jin, which was 0.04 higher than the previous trading day. The average price in the main sales areas was 4.29 yuan/jin. , the price increased by 0.05 compared with the previous trading day. Today, egg prices across the country are mainly stable. Prices in the Beijing market are stable. The wholesale prices of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream prices are 184 yuan/44 pounds, which is the same as yesterday’s price. As of 7 o’clock in the morning, a total of 9 trucks have arrived on the Great Ocean Road. The arrival of goods has increased, and the goods are shipped normally. The mainstream wholesale price is 180-190 yuan/44 pounds, which is stable compared with yesterday's price.Today, the price of eggs in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang is stable; the price in Shandong continues to remain stable, the price in Henan is stable, the price in Shanxi, Hebei is stable, the price in Hubei is stable, the price in Jiangsu and Anhui is stable, and the price of local eggs is high and low. The market continues to fluctuate and consolidate, but the market is generally weak.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of June 24 was 15.76 million, a 6.4% decrease from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring and statistics on the culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of June 30 was 502 days, which was the same as the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of June 30 were 7,272 tons, a decrease of 1.5% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of June 30, the inventory in the production link increased slightly, and the circulation eased inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.46 days, an increase of 0.03 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.94 days. , a decrease of 0.04 days compared with the previous week.
6. Yesterday, the price of culled chickens in the main production areas across the country was stable. The average price in the main production areas of Tao chicken was 5.94 yuan/jin, which was the same as the previous trading day.
7. According to customs data, my country’s total export volume of fresh eggs in May 2022 was 8,621.3 tons, an increase of 1.72% from April and a year-on-year increase of 56.38% from May 2021. This is already since February, my country’s export volume It has shown a growth trend for three consecutive months; my country's fresh egg exports have increased significantly since entering 2022, and the cumulative export volume from January to May 2022 increased by 38.17% compared with the same period last year.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continued to recover but at a slow pace. However, the egg production rate dropped due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply was acceptable. On the demand side, consumption in the rainy season is over, and consumption in the peak season of and Mid-Autumn Festival in July is about to begin. And after the recent relaxation of epidemic prevention and control measures, catering and tourism consumption will recover in the later period. It is expected that egg prices will gradually strengthen after hitting the bottom. Recently, the commodity has fallen overall, feed costs have also declined, and the cost support range has been lowered overall. In terms of futures, judging from the current situation, the inventory in September is still expected to be low and consumer prices should be relatively strong during the peak season. However, the recent general decline in commodities, the logic of lower feed costs in market transactions, and the focus of egg prices have shifted downward. It is recommended to wait and see. Wait for stabilization before opening a long position.
2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. Indian trade sources recently said that India is considering allowing sugar mills to ship out the raw sugar inventory piled up in ports and warehouses. A few weeks ago, India imposed restrictions on sugar exports. India is the world's largest sugar exporter after Brazil , and increased exports may put raw sugar futures under pressure. ICE raw sugar futures prices are near their lowest levels in four months. Last month, India limited exports for the current year to 10 million tons, a figure it has almost reached, to prevent domestic prices from surging. Of India's record 10 million tons of sugar exports this year, raw sugar accounts for about 4.5 million tons, with the rest being white sugar.
2. According to preliminary information provided by traders on Thursday, the raw sugar delivery volume of the July expiration contract of the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) is expected to be 9,897 lots, or about 502,000 tons, which is not a lot from historical data. It is said that Louis Dreyfus Company is the largest recipient, with a quantity of 5,128 lots, or approximately 260,000 tons, while commodity trader Viterra is the largest supplier, with a quantity of 4,528 lots, or 230,000 tons.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: Raw sugar delivery in July, the delivery volume is not large, and Brazil’s exports are good, indicating that the current market demand is good, and attention is paid to whether raw sugar can stabilize in the near future. The room for correction of short-term futures prices is expected to be basically in place. As the temperature rises, consumption will gradually increase, which will help strengthen futures and spot prices. You can gradually try to establish multiple orders.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the 91 official set.
3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5900. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market).
cotton - cotton yarn
[External disk impact]
The main ICE US cotton contract closed higher overnight, with the December contract rising 1.48 cents/pound (1.52%) to 98.96 cents/pound.
[Important information]
1. According to the latest report released by USDA on June 30, the actual planting area of US cotton in 2022/23 is 12.478 million acres, which is higher than the planting intention report of 12.234 million acres at the end of March and lower than the USDA outlook in February. Forum's 12.7 million acres is slightly higher than the and Bloomberg average estimates of 12.3 million acres. The report was slightly neutral and basically in line with expectations.
2. The latest report data shows that the US cotton signing situation is good in the new year. According to USDA’s latest export report, in the week of June 23, 10,900 tons of upland cotton were signed in the United States for 2021/22. As of that week, 3.5388 million tons of upland cotton were signed for 2021/22. The contracting progress was 112%, and the five-year average was 110%. ; The shipment volume for the week was 82,600 tons, and the cumulative shipment volume as of that week was 2,610,700 tons. The shipment progress was 78%, and the five-year average was 85%. That week, 10,500 tons of upland cotton for 2022/23 were signed, and as of that week, a total of 922,300 tons had been signed.
3. It is expected that the suitable cotton topping period in 2022 will be slightly earlier than normal in Xinjiang cotton areas. Most cotton areas in northern Xinjiang west of Shihezi are around July 4th, northern cotton areas in Bazhou and Hami cotton areas are around July 13th, and most cotton areas in Changjizhou and most of the remaining cotton areas in southern Xinjiang are around July 8. It is advisable to top around the day. The topping period of machine-picked cotton and prosperous and dense cotton fields should be appropriately advanced, while the topping period of weak seedling fields and cotton fields that were severely affected in the early stage can be appropriately postponed; various localities should be based on the local cotton seedling growth, climate characteristics and variety layout, and in accordance with The principle of "the branches arrive at different times and the branches arrive at different times" refines the cotton topping period forecast.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: The September contract of Zheng Cotton is currently around 17,000. On the one hand, this position has a greater supporting role from the planting cost side, and most of the downstream textile companies are profitable at this position. The spot price There is also support. On the other hand, 17,000 is also the current low point that most industry people can recognize, so there may be greater support around this position in the short term. In addition, domestic epidemic prevention and control policies have a trend of relaxing, and commodities generally rebound in the short term. It is expected that Zheng cotton will also fluctuate and rebound around 17000-18000 in the short term. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton. There have been many rumors about government purchases and storage in the market recently, and attention has been paid to recent market policy announcements.
2. Arbitrage: The losses of spot cotton yarn are gradually returning. You can consider going long on the disk profit of September contract cotton yarn.
3. Options: In the short term, it is recommended to consider selling CF209-C-18400 at a high level. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
peanuts
[Important information]
The domestic peanut market operated stably yesterday, and the market buying and selling atmosphere was light. The grain surplus at the grassroots level in the main domestic peanut-producing areas has basically bottomed out. Traders mainly purchase seed rice sporadically, and there is not much left for unified cargo. Looking at different production areas, the price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin. The price of ordinary rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/jin, and that of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/jin. The transaction price is based on quality. The price of ordinary rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/jin. The acquisition of oil plants has basically come to an end. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8600-9000 yuan/ton. Laiyang Luhua has started up normally, and the other factories have all been shut down, and they have temporarily maintained a state of shutdown and non-stop harvesting. Yihai Kerry factory has completely stopped production, and only some factories have signed orders for imported rice.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market was temporarily stable on the previous trading day. At present, most oil mills reported high prices and low prices, and the transaction prices of some trade orders in the market fell. The oil market fluctuated at a low level, and the bearish sentiment in the market still existed. The downstream market was still mainly wait-and-see, and the new transactions were basically small orders with urgent needs. Most oil mills are executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow. In terms of price, the current domestic average price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 17,300 yuan/ton; the market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 20,000 yuan/ton.
[Operation Suggestions]
The overall commodity price fell sharply last night, and peanuts may be affected in the short term and overall be weak. According to research by Zhuochuang and my agricultural products and other institutions, the planting area in the main producing areas of Henan is relatively small, so peanut prices may rise in the future. Therefore, at the current point, it is recommended to choose the opportunity to place multiple orders in the 01 contract.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling. Short orders entered near 0 in the early stage can temporarily stop profits and leave the market, and re-arrange when the correction exceeds -100.
period spot strategy: The basis is -800. After excluding the delivery cost, there is a profit margin of about 400 yuan per ton. You can choose to sell hedging or purchase spot and sell it to the market to lock in the basis profit. However, there is still room for growth in the peanut market, and you can choose to hedge at a higher level when the opportunity arises. It is also necessary to control the financial risk of futures position .
[Operation Suggestions]
The overall commodity price fell sharply last night, and peanuts may be affected in the short term and overall be weak. According to research by Zhuochuang and my agricultural products and other institutions, the planting area in the main producing areas of Henan is relatively small, so peanut prices may rise in the future. Therefore, at the current point, it is recommended to choose the opportunity to place multiple orders in the 01 contract.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling. Short orders entered near 0 in the early stage can temporarily stop profits and leave the market, and re-arrange when the correction exceeds -100.
period spot strategy: The basis is -800. After excluding the delivery cost, there is a profit margin of about 400 yuan per ton. You can choose to sell hedging or purchase spot and sell it to the market to lock in the basis profit. However, there is still room for growth in the peanut market, and you can choose to hedge at a higher level when the opportunity arises. It is also necessary to control the financial risk of futures position .
