Oriental Securities Co., Ltd. Wan Liyang recently conducted research on Yuntianhua and released a research report "Agrichemicals continue to be highly prosperous, and new energy transformation is imminent." This report gives an overweight rating to Yuntianhua and believes that its target price is 41.21 yuan, the current stock price is 28.02 yuan, and the expected increase is 47.07%.
Yuntianhua (600096)
profit increased significantly: the company achieved revenue of 63.249 billion in 21, +21.4% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.642 billion, +1238.8% year-on-year; in Q1 of 2022, it achieved revenue of 14.962 billion, +1.33% year-on-year. %, achieving net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.646 billion yuan, +186.2% year-on-year. The comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 13.68%, a year-on-year increase of 1.32pct. The comprehensive gross profit margin in Q1 of 22 was 19.53%, and the profitability level increased significantly.
Internal and external demand is strong, and the high prosperity of chemical fertilizers is expected to continue: taking phosphate fertilizer as an example, the company's average sales price of phosphate fertilizer excluding tax in 21 years was 2,958 yuan/ton, a year-on-year increase of 39.3%, and the gross profit margins of monoammonium and diammonium were 36.51% and 27.66 respectively. %, an increase of 17.37pct and 10.40pct over the previous year. In the context of the global epidemic, on the one hand, concerns about food security have driven growth in demand for fertilizers at home and abroad. On the other hand, the global fertilizer industry's operating rate and supply chain have also been affected by the epidemic. The tight supply and demand situation has continued to push up the prices of related fertilizer products, and overseas prices The increase is even greater. Taking monoammonium phosphate as an example, the Baltic FOB spot price of monoammonium phosphate has risen from US$376/ton at the beginning of 21 to the current US$1,011/ton, an increase of 169%, which is much higher than the current domestic monoammonium price of 4,540 yuan/ton. The company's ammonium phosphate export volume accounts for 20% of the country's export volume, and the export products further increase the gross profit margin of the phosphate fertilizer business. At present, the raw material prices of phosphate fertilizers remain high. In particular, the rising prices of sulfur and phosphate ore have hardly adjusted back. The cost side strongly supports the high boom of phosphate fertilizers. The company's supporting raw materials such as phosphate rock and synthetic ammonia also ensure that the company's phosphate fertilizer business has sufficient supply. Profit space.
new energy materials project is about to be launched, and industrial transformation is accelerating: the company relies on its own resource supporting advantages to continue to extend the value of the phosphorus chemical industry chain. The first phase of the 500,000-ton iron phosphate and supporting equipment project planned in the early stage is expected to be 100,000 tons of iron phosphate in 6 this year It will be completed and put into operation in June. The remaining 400,000 tons and supporting facilities are planned to be completed in December 2023. The annual output of 5,000 tons of lithium hexafluorophosphate in a joint venture with Duofuo will also be put into operation in June this year. In February this year, the company signed the "New Energy Battery Whole Industry Chain Project Cooperation Agreement" with the Yuxi Municipal People's Government of Yunnan Province, Enjie Co., Ltd., Yiwei Lithium Energy, and Huayou Holdings. Cooperation with leading companies in the new energy industry will help the company further Go deep into the industrial chain and accelerate the transformation of the new energy industry.
Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions
html The price of the company's products will increase across the board in 2021. Although the price of raw materials has also risen sharply, the tight supply and demand of fertilizers and the company's raw material matching have significantly improved the company's profitability, so the company's profit forecast has been raised. We predict that the company's EPS per share in 2022-24 will be 3.17, 3.24 and 3.63 yuan (the original forecast in 22-23 is 1.61 and 1.81 yuan). Based on the comparable company's 13 times earnings ratio in 2022, we give a target price of 41.21 yuan and maintain an overweight rating. .Risk warning
Product and raw material prices fluctuate; new project progress is less than expected; new product demand is less than expected.
Securities Star Data Center calculates based on the research report data released in the past three years. Essence Securities researcher Zhang Wangqiang’s team has conducted more in-depth research on this stock. The average forecast accuracy in the past three years is 74.92%. It predicts that the attributable net profit in 2022 will be a profit of 50.13 billion, the predicted PE based on current price conversion is 10.26. The latest profit forecast details of
are as follows:
A total of 18 institutions have rated the stock in the past 90 days, 15 have a buy rating, 2 have an overweight rating, and 1 has a neutral rating; the average target price of institutions in the past 90 days is 33.43. The Securities Star valuation analysis tool shows that Yuntianhua (600096) has a good company rating of 3.5 stars, a good price rating of 2.5 stars, and a comprehensive valuation rating of 3 stars. (Rating range: 1 ~ 5 stars, the highest is 5 stars)
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