As of 13:00 on June 13, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide was 535 million (data from Johns Hopkins University). The global epidemic has stabilized. Last week (13:00 on June 6 to 13:00 on June 13) there were 3.385 million new confirmed cases, and the number has been basically around 3.3 million in the past three weeks; there were 10,383 new deaths, and the number of new cases has remained at 10,383. is at its lowest level in nearly two years.
Last week, there were 2.21 million new confirmed cases and 6,235 new deaths in developed countries, both of which ended several consecutive weeks of decline. Last week, 985,000 new cases were diagnosed in developed countries in Europe, which has been rising for two consecutive weeks; the epidemic in major developed countries in Europe shows signs of accelerating the spread, including Germany (313,000 new cases), Italy (147,000 new cases), and the United Kingdom ( (79,000 new cases) The weekly increase in new cases exceeded 20%. Last week, there were 754,000 new confirmed cases in the United States, which has remained above 700,000 for four consecutive weeks. Since the end of April, the proportion of cases of the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes in the United States has increased significantly. According to estimates from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the two subtypes accounted for 13% of new cases in the first week of June.
Last week, there were 1.175 million new confirmed cases and 4,148 new deaths in developing countries, both of which were around the average of the past month. The epidemic is spreading rapidly in major countries in South America. Last week, new cases in Brazil (319,000 new cases) and Chile (71,000 new cases) hit new highs since late March. On the other hand, the epidemic in India also shows signs of accelerating its spread. Last week, 49,000 new cases were diagnosed in India, more than double the average in May.
According to data from the National Health Commission of China, 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported 541 new confirmed cases last week, including 422 local cases; 3,980 new cases of asymptomatic infections, including There were 540 local asymptomatic infections.
There were 962 new positive cases in the local area last week, the first increase in eight weeks; there were 3 provinces and cities (autonomous regions) with more than 100 new cases, namely Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (484 cases), Beijing City (196 cases) and Shanghai city (127 cases). Among them, 37 of the new positive cases in Shanghai were discovered during risk screening, exceeding the total of the previous four weeks.
The epidemic in Taiwan, China, is showing signs of easing. There were 487,392 new confirmed cases last week, falling below 500,000 for the first time in four weeks.
According to data from OurWorldInData, as of June 11, a total of 11.93 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered globally, with 56 million new doses administered in the previous week, more than half of which were booster shots.
Last Sunday, officials from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) stated that three shots of the Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine are effective in preventing COVID-19 infection in children under 5 years old based on the level of antibodies brought about by vaccination. The FDA will convene a meeting of external experts on Wednesday to decide whether to recommend authorization of the Pfizer vaccine for children under 5 years old in the United States. There are currently about 18 million children under the age of 5 in the United States. They are the last group in the United States that have not yet received permission to receive the new crown vaccine .
- There were 754,000 new confirmed cases in the United States last week, which has remained above 700,000 for four consecutive weeks; cases of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes have increased rapidly in the United States since the end of April. According to the U.S. Disease Control and Prevention The center estimates that the two subtypes accounted for 13% of new cases in the first week of June. The epidemic is accelerating in major countries in South America. Last week, new cases in Brazil (319,000 new cases) and Chile (71,000 new cases) hit new highs since late March.
- Last week, 985,000 new cases were diagnosed in developed countries in Europe, which has been rising for two consecutive weeks. There are signs of accelerating the spread of the epidemic in major European developed countries. Last week, the number of new cases in Germany (313,000 new cases), Italy (147,000 new cases), and the United Kingdom (79,000 new cases) all increased by more than 20% week-on-week. In Portugal, the epidemic caused by the Omicron BA.5 subtype has further eased. Last week, Portugal had 142,000 new confirmed cases, which has been declining for two consecutive weeks.
- Among Asia-Pacific countries, South Korea had 61,000 new confirmed cases last week, the lowest number since late January. The epidemic situation in Australia and New Zealand has stabilized, with 186,000 and 46,000 new confirmed cases last week respectively, which are at the same level as the previous week. The epidemic in India shows signs of accelerating its spread. Last week, 49,000 new cases were diagnosed in India, more than double the average in May.
- There were 10,000 new confirmed cases in South Africa last week, returning to around the weekly average in March this year. At that time, the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes had not yet spread widely in South Africa.
Shanghai has fully and orderly resumed work, production and markets since June 1. We have seen that economic activities are recovering rapidly. On the one hand, the number of people traveling by subway in Shanghai has increased rapidly, and last week it has basically returned to nearly half of the 2021 average level. Judging from the speed of recovery, if we take the day of "social clearing" as the starting point (t=0), the recovery of Shanghai residents' subway travel is faster than that of Changchun. Increased travel is conducive to the recovery of service industries that require close contact, such as catering and retail. According to our calculations, subway traffic volume can explain 76% of the year-on-year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales.
On the other hand, we have also established a highway heat index based on Amap data to look at the economic recovery from the exchange of people and goods between provinces. As of June 12, after Shanghai fully resumed work and production and markets, the popularity of highways with major cities has nearly doubled, and has returned to the level before Pudong and other places started "global static management" on March 28. The city The increase in exchanges of people and goods between countries means the recovery of business activities and industrial chains. It is worth noting that unlike the recovery of metro travel for people in the city, the recovery of Shanghai's interprovincial highway traffic is relatively slower, which is roughly the same as the previous recovery trajectory after Changchun lifted social control.
Since the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and tightened monetary policy in March, the tightening global financial conditions have combined with slowing economic growth and rising inflation, and the pressure of capital outflows from emerging markets has increased. According to data from the Institute of International Finance (IIF), capital outflows from emerging market countries other than China in the past three months have been at the highest level in the past 12 years (except when the epidemic broke out in 2020).
html The U.S. CPI increased by 8.6% year-on-year in May, hitting the highest level since December 1981. Faced with high inflation rates, the Federal Reserve may tighten monetary policy faster, and emerging markets will also face greater pressure from capital outflows.Global epidemic data chart
- Panorama
- Europe
Last week, 985,000 new cases were diagnosed in developed countries in Europe, which has been rising for two consecutive weeks. There are signs of accelerating the spread of the epidemic in major European developed countries. Last week, the number of new cases in Germany (313,000 new cases), Italy (147,000 new cases), and the United Kingdom (79,000 new cases) all increased by more than 20% week-on-week. In Portugal, the epidemic caused by the Omicron BA.5 subtype has further eased. Last week, there were 142,000 new confirmed cases in Portugal, which has been declining for two consecutive weeks.
- Americas
Last week, 754,000 new cases were diagnosed in the United States, which remained above 700,000 for 4 consecutive weeks; cases of Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes have increased rapidly in the United States since the end of April. According to the United States Disease Control and Prevention According to estimates from the Prevention Center, the two subtypes accounted for 13% of new cases in the first week of June. The epidemic is accelerating in major countries in South America. Last week, new cases in Brazil (319,000 new cases) and Chile (71,000 new cases) hit new highs since late March.
- Asia Pacific
Among Asia Pacific countries, South Korea had 61,000 new confirmed cases last week, the lowest number since late January. The epidemic situation in Australia and New Zealand has stabilized, with 186,000 and 46,000 new confirmed cases last week respectively, which are at the same level as the previous week. The epidemic in India shows signs of accelerating its spread. Last week, 49,000 new cases were diagnosed in India, more than double the average in May.
- Africa
Last week, there were 10,000 new confirmed cases in South Africa, returning to around the weekly average in March this year. At that time, the Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subtypes had not yet spread widely in South Africa.
- China
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Text | Ma Shaozhi Researcher of China First Financial Research Institute
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