Singleism? Individualism? DINK Family ? Class slipped? When you hear these words, your first reaction is whether the aging and low birth rate problems that have only appeared in recent decades.
Logically speaking, after the existence of fertilizers, pesticides and antibiotic , the population in the world should double and double again.
However, many countries, especially many developed countries, are now deeply trapped in the process of less birth and aging.
Although the population density is not high, and the per capita resources have increased significantly with the increase in productivity, the residents' willingness to give birth has decreased but not increased, and the number of newborns has been hovering at a low level for a long time.
The first country in the world to experience a population crisis is Western Europe major country France.
1. The population crisis as early as the 19th century
The population crisis in France began so early, beyond the general imagination. At the beginning of the 19th century, the world's total population exceeded 1 billion for the first time, and in the following century, the population of almost all countries experienced rapid growth of doubled. However, France's population size is only in a state of stagnation of growth.
Napoleonic Wars In 1816, the total population of France was 30 million, while almost a century later in 1901, the population of France was 38.4 million, an increase of only less than 30%.
. During the same period, the population of German region increased from 28 million to 60 million, and the population of Russia increased from 37 million to 110 million. The United States, which has a large number of immigrants, increased from 5 million in the early 19th century to 76 million in the early 20th century.
Don’t think that 30% is also a lot, because if you count the population of different age groups, you will find: Why did the French live fewer and fewer people in the 19th century in ?
The improvement in grain output and medical technology brought about by the industrial revolution have greatly increased the life expectancy of residents. In 1816, France's life expectancy was about 38 years old. By 1900, this data increased to 45 years old, and the latest data shows that France's life expectancy was as high as 85 years old.
The population of France today is 67 million. If you calculate it briefly, France in 1816 had about 789,000 French people each age, but today it has become 788,000.
This shows that the population increase is not because of the increase of newborns, but people in the past became deaths when they were 40 or 50 years old and disappeared into the statistics. However, now countless old men and women have emerged, forcibly increasing the population.
It was definitely not a normal phenomenon to fall into "fewer births" two hundred years ago. But the strange thing about France is that this country has very excellent innate conditions.
First of all, France's population density is not high. Putting aside the narrow-minded countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, this view is completely valid compared to its European neighbors.
Since the beginning of the 20th century, France's population size has been basically the same as that of Britain across the sea and Italy in the southeast. However, regardless of the mountains in Britain and Italy, it is not as livable as France. In terms of territory area alone, the territory of both countries is only half that of France.
. In the northeast of France, Germany, with a higher latitude, colder climate and less territorial area, has a total population of 83 million.
Secondly, "poor" is not the reason why the French do not have children .
Since the 19th century, as one of the great powers of capitalism, the French's income level not only grew very fast, but their living standards have also been at the forefront of the world.
In the mid-19th century, France's per capita annual income was about 80 francs , and its purchasing power was about 8,000 yuan today; and statistics in 2020 showed that France's per capita annual income was 28,800 euros, equivalent to about 210,000 yuan.
Over the past two hundred years, France's per capita income has increased by as much as 26 times. A person in the twenty-first century's living expenses are equivalent to a week's consumption for a family of five two hundred years ago.
Not only that, in the mid-19th century, the average annual income of the Qing Dynasty people was less than ten taels of silver, which was less than one-third of the French income level based on the silver price. However, from that time to the present, China's population has expanded by more than three times.
Therefore, "abercrombie" and "becoming poor" cannot stand with the French, and the real reason for not having children will make you feel that the age is misplaced.
2. There are many different opinions
The first statement is that France was the first country in the world to start " Family Planning ".
is not without reason. In the 17th century, in France, where the population had exceeded 20 million, ordinary people had already begun to actively reduce the birth rate by postponing their marriage age and abandoning babies. With the emergence of new birth control methods in the mid-19th century, the resistance to implementation was much smaller than that of European neighbors.
In the end, "birth control" has become an inevitable choice to reduce family burdens and improve personal quality of life, and France's population size has also stopped moving forward.
The second statement is that the luxury and pleasure atmosphere of the entire French society has grown hedonism.
As we all know, France is a romantic country, and France's romance itself is related to the centralized system of royal power. During the Bourbon dynasty, French monarchs used systems to "carve" them near Paris in order to restrict the power of the nobles.
The idle nobles can only indulge in pleasure, and the whole society is filled with the atmosphere of drinking and drunkenness today. According to the principles of sociology, the lower class will not feel like imitating the living habits of the upper class. In the end, a large number of bachelors who only pursue a comfortable life and do not consider passing on the family line appeared in France.
In addition, some people believe that feminism first emerged in France, and independent women who have obtained economic status want to break free from the shackles of marriage and do not tend to get married and have children.
. Some people believe that France's population has long reached the limit of the so-called " Malthus Trap ", so it naturally cannot grow.
3. Deeper reasons
In fact, the most core reason why the French do not have children is: this is the first country where the whole society feels "class anxiety".
With the advent of the industrial revolution, the urban petty bourgeoisie began to step onto the stage of history. And today, this class has another name - "middle class".
Today we know that the "middle class" is the most "anxious" group. Only by working hard can they maintain their current economic status. If they are not careful, they will face class decline.
And at that time, how many so-called "middle class" were there in France?
Statistics show that in 1866, the number of small owners of various types in France reached 1.33 million, accounting for 5% of the entire French population and more than 15% of the urban population. If soldiers, civil servants, doctors, teachers and various landlords are added, nearly half of France's urban population belongs to the broad urban petty bourgeoisie.
Although the name of this group also contains the four words " bourgeoisie ", unlike the real bourgeoisie, these people's lives rely entirely on their own hard work, and their social status is extremely unstable.
In order not to "class fall", these people spontaneously began to restrain their childbirth, and at the same time spent a lot of energy to cultivate their only offspring. "Joining the Army" and "taking the Public Examination" became the golden avenues in the eyes of French youth in that era.
More importantly, in France, there are not only the petty bourgeois that have "class anxiety" in petty bourgeois . French farmers with more than half of the population share are also deeply worried that their descendants will face class decline.
The Civil Code (" Napoleon Code ") promulgated by Napoleon in 804 abolished the long-standing inheritance system in France, and forced all children to share the inheritance of the previous generation.This led to the French farmers taking the initiative to limit the number of children in order not to let their descendants get poorer and poorer.
Some people have a question: Can’t farmers’ children go to the city to work? The income from working can be much more than farming.
Yes, statistics show that in the 19th century, the average income of urban residents in France was about twice that of rural residents. However, why is there no large-scale employment wave in France? This is because France has a "character capitalist system".
Most countries will have a stage of rapid industrialization in the process of modernization. The main feature of this stage is that the proportion of industrial GDP has increased rapidly, a large number of farmers have entered the city, and the urbanization rate has increased rapidly.
For example, Japan, just thirty years after World War II , Japan's urbanization rate rose from 35% to 78%, basically completing urbanization. China's urbanization rate is faster, and it has increased rapidly from 20% to around 60% in the past twenty years.
However, France is the only country that has not experienced rapid urbanization among the major countries that have completed urbanization.
In 800, France's urbanization rate was about 20%, and it only increased to 40% after a full hundred years. By 1980, France's urbanization rate reached 75%, and finally completed the urbanization process.
France's slow urbanization is the greatest manifestation of its "characteristic capitalism", simply put it as "get up early and get up late".
France's neighboring country led the first industrial revolution . As early as the early nineteenth century, France began to develop industry in the footsteps of Britain.
However, as mentioned above, as the first republic among European powers, respecting human rights France did not have the bankruptcy of a large number of farmers brought about by the "land enclosure movement".
The result is that farmers lack motivation to enter the city, and the relative shortage of urban labor has led to slow development of large capital, and the slow development of large capital has further reduced the attractiveness of migrant workers to farmers, and ultimately brought about the slow increase in urbanization rate.
For ordinary countries, the outcome of slow industrial development is often that local national industries are covered by foreign capital, and the country is pressed on low-end industries and will never turn over.
But because French industry started very early, there was no so-called foreign capital at all in that era. Therefore, even if capitalism develops slowly, it is difficult for capitalists to feel the pressure from market competition. The French government will naturally not protect local industries in policies and support the motivation of big capitalists.
And because it started too early, the French have many choices. They have long realized the truth that "industry is ruining the country, finance promotes the country". It is better to lend money to stocks than to do business.
At the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the 20th century, the entire France relied on lending, stock trading, and rent collection to make a living. "food class" The number of people in the total population accounted for 20% of the total population.
As a group of people who do not work, these people naturally tend to enjoy life. Even if they have offspring, they will focus more on how to make money like themselves, rather than working hard and struggling.
Therefore, the middle class and peasants dare not give birth, and the foster class does not want to give birth. The average annual number of newborns in France finally stagnated at a very low position and has continued to this day.
What has the population crisis and low fertility rate that lasted for two hundred years brought to France?
From the perspective of national strength, France was a world-class power two hundred years ago, and today France is still a world-class power ranked among the five permanent members.
From the perspective of residents' living standards, French per capita GDP and per capita income are far higher than the world average, the human development index is as high as 0.901, the average life expectancy is as high as 85 years old, and the overall water of daily necessities has never fallen out of the forefront of the world.
In this way, the so-called "population crisis" does not seem to be true. Perhaps a decrease in newborns is a good thing? Not necessarily.
The direct impact of the population crisis is the decrease in the source of troops. In World War I, France had a population of 38 million against Germany with a population of 66 million. After making great sacrifices, it barely won the war. The painful lessons of World War I were also an important reason for France's passive operations in the early stage of World War II.
On the other hand, the superior living conditions have also brought a large number of immigrants to France. France is a relatively open country in terms of immigration policy, and is also the sovereign country of West Africa . Even in the 19th century when the whole world yearned for " New America ", France was still the main destination rather than the starting point for immigration.
In the early nineteenth century, France was basically a pure white country. Today, the proportion of immigrants from Middle East in the French population has risen to 12%.
The proportion of African blacks has risen to 8.2%. In the upcoming World Cup, we can see a French football team with half of the black faces.
Will the "emptying the cage and changing birds" caused by excessive migrant populations cause more social problems? Will the low fertility rate allow France to maintain a high economic level and a relatively stable social state? , I believe that the audience already has the answer in their hearts.
