Nandu News Domestic refined oil prices ended their consecutive declines, and oil prices rose for the first time in the second half of this year. The Price Department of the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission released the latest news that in accordance with the requirements of the National Development and Reform Commission, the domestic refined oil prices will be raised from 24:00 on September 6. On the basis of the current prices, the prices of gasoline and diesel in the province will be increased by 190 yuan and 185 yuan per ton respectively.
refined oil prices are reduced according to the national refined oil price formation mechanism and combined with the recent changes in the international market oil prices. OPEC + (OPEC+) production cuts are still expected. The market expects that there is room for international oil prices to rise in the near future, but the slight reduction in production will have limited impact on prices, and the future trend of oil prices will still be full of variables.
Since the beginning of 2022, the domestic refined oil market has experienced 17 price adjustments, including 11 up and 6 down. Previously, from June 28 to August 23, refined oil prices experienced five consecutive declines, and the first "five consecutive declines" this year.
Since the beginning of this year, supply and demand in the global oil market have been tight, and geopolitical events have occurred frequently, pushing up international oil prices. The market is worried about a global economic recession, and crude oil demand in peak season is lower than expected. Coupled with multiple factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar, international oil prices fluctuated from a high level in early July, and the futures prices of the New York Mercantile Exchange Light Crude Oil (WTI) and London Brent Crude Oil (Brent) both fell below $100 per barrel.
Commodity Trading Service Provider Jinlianchuang's latest monitoring report on September 13 showed that from September 2 to 9, the average price of WTI and Brent crude oil futures were US$84.79/barrel and US$91.71/barrel, respectively, down 6.14% and 5.70% from the previous week.
The report analyzed that international oil prices accelerated their decline that week. "Worries about global economic slowdown have put pressure on oil prices. As interest rates rise and inflation concerns swept across countries, investors are worried that energy demand will be destroyed. At the same time, betting on Fed again sharply hikes has also boosted the dollar's strength. The current dollar index has hit a new high in nearly two decades, which has also led to aggravated negative pressure on oil prices." The report said.
"International crude oil rose first and then fell during the week, and the retail price was raised as scheduled. However, the new round of change rate developed negatively and broadly, and the news turned from positive to negative." Jinlianchuang Monitoring disclosed that from September 2 to 9, the rise in domestic diesel and gasoline prices continued, but the purchase and sales atmosphere gradually faded. Recently, the operating rate of local refineries has rebounded moderately, and the shipment pace has slowed down, which has put a suppression on the prices of local refining. The supply of resources in some areas that mainly sell refined oil has become tighter, and there is no sales pressure at the beginning of the month, so the intention to support the price is relatively high. With the implementation of the price adjustment policy, diesel prices have increased significantly, while gasoline demand has performed poorly.
htmlOn September 13, according to the commodity information platform Shanghai Ganglian released a weekly price report (September 5th to 9th), the retail price limit for refined oil increased that week. In the future, due to the weakening support for crude oil cost, the market wait-and-see mentality gradually arises, and prices tend to rationally pull back, especially the decline in gasoline is relatively significant, and the domestic refined oil market continues to rise, but the overall increase is limited.
Longzhong National wholesale price of refined oil in the second week of September (Source: National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center)
Shanghai Steel Union expects that gasoline and diesel prices may show a downward trend next week. "After entering the middle of the month, the sales pressure of each unit increased slightly, and it is not ruled out that some units will secretly benefit shipments. However, the main units have continued to purchase externally recently, and the cost is high, which may suppress their overall decline to a certain extent." The weekly report said.
China is the world's largest crude oil importer and the second largest crude oil consumer. Oil price fluctuations are related to the burden on downstream enterprises and consumers, and are closely related to the operating costs of the real economy.
Recently, National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) data for August. From a year-on-year perspective, CPI rose by 2.5%. The prices of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.0%, among which the prices of gasoline, diesel and liquefied petroleum gas rose by 20.2%, 21.9% and 19.8% respectively, and the increase has declined.
In August, the national PPI ( industrial producer ex-factory price index ) was affected by multiple factors, including the fluctuation of commodity prices such as international crude oil, non-ferrous metals , and the weak market demand in some domestic industries. The overall price trend of industrial products declined, and the month-on-month decline of PPI slightly narrowed, and the year-on-year increase continued to decline.
But compared with the beginning of the year, oil prices are still relatively high overall. On January 17, the price of No. 95 gasoline in Guangdong Province was 10,399 yuan/ton, and the latest price was 11,799 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.46%; the price of No. 0 diesel was 8,255 yuan/ton, and the latest price was 9,460 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.6%.
China Petroleum external production ratio exceeds 70%. According to the current refined oil price mechanism, domestic refined oil prices will be adjusted every 10 working days according to the changes in crude oil prices in the international market.
According to the provisions of the " Oil Price Management Measures ", when the international crude oil price reaches the "ceiling", that is, exceeding the regulation upper limit of US$130 per barrel, the prices of gasoline and diesel will not be raised or slightly increased in principle; when the international crude oil price reaches the "floor price", that is, below the regulation lower limit of US$40, the refined oil price is calculated based on the crude oil price of US$40 per barrel and the normal processing profit margin.
has many uncertain factors that affect oil prices, and oil prices will still fluctuate within the range in the short term. The next round of price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on September 21.
htmlOn September 12, crude oil futures prices in the international market rose. Monitoring data from the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center shows that the WTI crude oil futures and spot prices in the US market were US$87.78 and US$88.18 per barrel, respectively, up US$0.99 and US$0.91 respectively from the previous trading day; the Brent crude oil futures and spot prices in the UK market were US$94.00 and US$98.38 per barrel, respectively, up US$1.16 and US$3.40 respectively from the previous trading day.Interview and writing: Nandu reporter Huang Shulun
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