Today, A shares fell as scheduled.
The most important thing is that it is the influence of the most important Central Economic Work Conference of the year held last week. The most important thing about
is the two.
First of all, Monetary policy will not flood . In my recent article, I said that in the past six months, the growth rate of broad currency M2 in my country has risen, but social financing has declined. Social financing data has been the lowest since social financing statistics were included in 2003. is only 10% year-on-year compared with . Once it is lower than 10%, the risk will be greater.
M2 and social financing form the difference between scissors . This shows that the currency is idle in the financial system, and loose money cannot be transmitted to loose credit. There is a lot of money, but it cannot be released. The main reason is that the economy is downturning, there are too few qualified lenders, and the reduction in the number of borrowers for residents and the reduction in borrowing of enterprises (especially private enterprises ).
my country has now fallen into the liquidity trap . At this time, flooding will lead to inflation and the risk of exchange rate . This is consistent with what I analyzed in my article "Finally I Still Falling into the Liquidity Trap".
. The Central Economic Work Conference requires that maintain the growth rate of broad money supply and social financing scale. The economic growth rate of the same nominal basically matches , and maintains RMB exchange rate basic stability at a reasonable equilibrium level . This shows that the country needs to maintain the exchange rate, and the overall monetary policy is tight, which is a big test for liquidity. Therefore, today's stock market fell.
The second is the relevant statement about real estate.
The first point is to place real estate with a large number of words in effectively preventing and resolving major financial risks , which shows that real estate is now mainly risk, not the locomotive of economic development in the past.
html short composition about market rumors in early November, to three arrows supporting real estate policies, and then to the statements of senior management. This means that it is indeed a way to save real estate, and the purpose is to avoid financial risks.
Therefore, before the meeting, real estate companies and others expected to cancel the proposal of living in a house rather than speculation. However, at the meeting, then mentioned housing not speculation , and real estate companies fought from summer to winter. On Friday, the market for commodity futures responded in advance, and real estate-related commodities such as iron ore plummeted.
The overall idea of real estate next year is still . It is . It is 1. The bottom line thinking , not big development.
These two points are the main reasons for the stock market adjustment today.
Of course, internationally, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 250 basis points and expresses hawkishness, and the European Central Bank follows closely behind and also raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
US stocks , Bitcoin, oil, etc. plummeted, which is also a risk brought by the external market.
Therefore, the stock market is likely to adjust in the near future.
At present, I still maintain my article "In 2023, will A-shares have a bull market market? 》Predictions.
The stock market is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. This article is not used as investment advice, but is only used as a record of personal investment analysis.
