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A shares , the last trading day of 2022 has ended, and the first trading day of 2023 will begin in a few days. In the last few days of 2022, everyone is looking forward to the future. No matter whether this year is scarred or not, it cannot stop us from looking forward to the next year. Some people expect to get back their investment next year, some expect to make a little profit next year, and some expect to see a bull market in and next year.
The bull market has always been the market that investors are most looking forward to. In recent years, we can often see some bloggers shouting that the bull market is coming, but their expectations have been disappointed time and time again. Although the market is not good this year, it cannot stop investors from yearning for a bull market. Some people are counting the time with their fingers. There is a bull market every five years, six years, and seven years. It has been six or seven years since the last big bull market (2015). According to the historical bull and bear time rules, a new big bull market should also appear.
This may be the voice of some investors who are looking forward to the arrival of the bull market. So will A-shares usher in a big bull market next year?
Unfortunately, I personally think the possibility is not high, because the bull market has just passed not long ago. Yes, what you are seeing is literally just after the bull market. In the eyes of most investors, the A-share bull market should be vigorous. The market is constantly rising and rising, and it can even be very close to the daily limit . Doubling in the entire bull market is trivial. As for the sector, don't talk about big rises or skyrocketing, these are all trivial, and the daily limit can be regarded as commonplace.
In terms of stocks, anything that doubles is like a rebound. There are a lot of five-fold bull stocks, and there are even some ten-fold bull stocks. Looking back at the past few years, it seems that none of the characteristics of the previous bull market have been seen. If I told you that the A-share bull market was the first three years, of course you would not believe it.
People are like this, always using the outline of the past to describe the future. History repeats itself, but it does not repeat itself. The real characteristic of the bull market is that the market continues to rise for a long period of time, and every time there is a callback to on the way, it will eventually rise back and continue to break upward. The size of the upside space is just a way to measure the size of a bull market, not a criterion for judging a bull market.
Looking at the past three years, the three major A-share markets have just continued to rise. Three years is long enough. What was the rising market in those three years if not a bull market? Obviously that is a bull market, and this year's market may mean that the three-year bull market has properly ended. The bull market has just ended, and I want to start a new bull market again. Is the bull market so easy to come? It's impossible, so I don't think there will be a bull market next year.
This article is only a personal opinion based on personal experience combined with analysis of market factors. It does not mean that the market will definitely move that way. Personal opinions are not intended as investment advice.
