Summary
Investment points
As the fourth series, we will focus on the general trend characteristics.
5 May 28 " Differentiation and Rebirth: The Market Bottom We Experienced in Those Years" , we proposed the bottom judgment framework and response measures based on the dimensions of valuation level, macro environment , structural operation and other dimensions. Since May, the judgments put forward in the report have gradually become explicit, whether it is the bottom position, structural trend, or sector recommendations.
market bottom leads the economic bottom, but the index operation cannot be separated from the real economy. Although the current judgment on the reversal of in the market is becoming clearer, looking forward to 2023, how will the general trend state be presented after the reversal be presented? This report will analyze it in combination with the economy. Deduction of the economic trend in
and 023
combined with the historical laws of the output gap of industrial added value , and comprehensively combined with the macro deduction in 2023, we believe that on the one hand, on the one hand, the economic turning point may appear near the end of 2023Q1; on the other hand, in terms of elasticity, combined with consumption, exports and investment, although the output gap of industrial added value has been repaired, the improvement may be narrower than this.
combined with the output gap to see the economic rhythm in 2023.
combined with historical laws, the output gap near Q1 2023 may see a turning point. Specifically, from the duration of each round of output gap, the output gap went from the valley bottom to the peak and then to the valley bottom of the next cycle, which lasted an average of 38 months. is currently in the current situation. This round of output gap cycle began in March 2020. Learning from historical laws, we have preliminary speculation that the end of this round of downward cycle may appear near the end of 2023Q1.
is worth noting that the significance of countercyclical management should not be ignored in economic operation. We will also prove it in combination with macro-analysis and judgment, and will dynamically track it in light of the actual economic status.
Combined with the output gap, economic elasticity in 2023.
combined with the three economic carriages (consumption, export and investment), under the high probability assumption of "stable investment + weak recovery of consumption + slowdown in exports", although the economy is expected to start recovery after 23Q1, the overall recovery rhythm is relatively weak, so the probability of slow climbing after the turning point of the output gap in industrial added value is high.
further sinks to A shares and corporate profits. We use industrial added value year-on-year , GDP year-on-year , PPI year-on-year and export year-on-year to match the A-share revenue growth rate, and use PPI year-on-year and seasonal factors to match the A-share net profit margin . It is expected that the growth rate of A-share attributable to parent in 23 years will recover to nearly 11%, which is close to 2013 (14%).
, deduction of general trend characteristics in 2023
The cyclical operation of the output gap in industrial added value is of guidance for the trend of A-shares. Based on the high-probability assumption that the output gap "trend first and then rise" and "the fluctuation amplitude narrows", we believe that is anchored by Shanghai Composite Index , and may appear as a narrow range of oscillating pattern in 2023, and the operating rhythm and output gap show certain synchronization. At the same time, in terms of structure, is expected to be reflected in the breakthrough of emerging industries, and traditional sectors are mainly bands and local.
. How to view the market trend in December
Looking forward to December, based on the sentiment and policy aspects, we believe that the market since Q4 is still in the rising window period. On the one hand, on the one hand, the policy of stabilizing growth continues to make efforts, one is to strengthen real estate policies, and the other is to optimize epidemic prevention and control. On the other hand, the emotional side, combined with the active transaction rate and financing and buying ratio, short-term emotions are restored and medium-term emotions are stable.
. Compared with the short term, it is currently in a period of momentum accumulation layout in the medium term. Science and Technology Innovation Board leads new growth, Hang Seng Technology is facing a turning point, and stable growth fluctuates and stabilizes.
. Risk warning : The effectiveness of the regular operation of has dropped significantly; the economic upward trend exceeds expectations or the economic recovery is low; geopolitical conflict exceeds expectations and then affects risk preference.
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, After the reversal, the general trend interprets the characteristics
"How to view the industry configuration in 2023? 》, "Thinking on 2023: Debate of Style", and "Thinking on 2023: Welcome the Year of Theme Investment", we analyzed the industry allocation, style characteristics and theme investment in 2023 respectively. As the fourth series, this report will focus on the general trend characteristics.
May 28 " Differentiation and Rebirth: The Market Bottom We Experienced in Those Years" , we proposed the bottom judgment framework and response measures based on dimensions such as valuation level, macro environment, and structural operation. Since May 15, the judgments put forward in the report have gradually become explicit, whether it is the bottom position, structural trend, or sector recommendations.
market bottom leads the economic bottom, but the index operation cannot be separated from the real economy. Although the judgment of the current market reversal is becoming clearer, looking forward to 2023, how will the general trend state be presented after the reversal be presented? This report will analyze it in combination with the economy.
Overall, combined with the core assumptions of the output gap "trend first and then rise" and "the fluctuation amplitude narrows", we believe that, first, is aimed at the general trend, and the Shanghai Composite Index is an anchor, and may appear as a narrow range oscillation pattern in 2023, and it is expected that the operating rhythm and output gap will show certain synchronization. Second, for structure, in the medium term, the industrial cycle is the core variable of the dominant style. With the beginning of the emerging industry's rise cycle, the small and medium-sized growth styles usher in a trend switching ; in the short term, looking forward to 2023, the economy will be mainly moderately restored, which means that the prosperity of the traditional industries of is limited, and the highlights of the prosperity are concentrated on the opportunities brought by the breakthrough of emerging industries.
In addition, is aimed at the short-term market, looking forward to December, combining sentiment and policy aspects, the market since Q4 is still in the rising window period. On the one hand, on the one hand, the policy of stabilizing growth continues to be strengthened, , the real estate policy is strengthened, and the second is the prevention and control of the epidemic is optimized. On the other hand, 's emotional side, short-term emotions are repaired and medium-term emotions are stable. , combined with the active transaction rate, as of December 2, the active transaction rate was -1.2%, higher than the center of -3%, and 5-day moving average also crossed above the 20-day moving average, indicating that short-term market sentiment has begun to warm up; 2, combined with the financing and buying ratio, the recent financing and buying ratio continued to fluctuate around the center of 7%, indicating that medium-term sentiment is stable.
But compared with short-term fluctuations, we believe that we are currently in a period of momentum accumulation layout in the medium-term dimension. In sectors, the Science and Technology Innovation Board leads new growth, Hang Seng Technology is facing a turning point, and stable growth fluctuates and stabilizes. Deduction of the economic trend in
and 2023
Combined with the historical laws of the output gap in industrial added value, and combined with the macro deduction in 2023, we believe that, on the one hand, from the rhythm, the economic turning point may appear near the end of 2023Q1; on the other hand, from the elasticity, combined with consumption, exports and investment, although the output gap in industrial added value has been repaired, the improvement may be narrower than this.
.1, , combined with the output gap, look at the economic rhythm of 2023
What is the output gap of industrial added value? The industrial value-added industry gap measures the portion of actual output exceeding potential output. Therefore, if the output gap is positive, it means that the actual demand exceeds the total supply, which often corresponds to the stage of high economic prosperity; conversely, if the output gap is negative, it means that the actual demand is smaller than the supply, and the resource utilization rate is lower, which often corresponds to the stage of economic downturn.
output gap can effectively divide the economic cycle. According to Schumpeter 's economic cycle theory, there are four stages of "prosperity", "recession", "depression" and "recovery" in the economic operation. The output gap of industrial added value moves from "0" to the peak, from the peak to "0", from "0" to the valley bottom, and from the valley bottom to "0" corresponds to four stages: "prosperity", "recession", "depression" and "recovery".
Looking back at history, the output gap in industrial added value has experienced nine complete cycles since 1990., the typical cycles are from October 1993 to March 1996, from May 1999 to December 2001, from January 2002 to August 2006, from September 2006 to December 2008, from January 2009 to October 2012, etc.
combined with historical operating rules, the output gap near Q1 2023 may see a turning point. Specifically, from the duration of each round of output gap, the average period lasted 38 months. is currently in the current situation. This round of output gap cycle begins in March 2020. Learning from the historical operating rules, we can preliminarily speculate that the end of this round of downward cycle may appear near the end of Q1 in 2023.
It is worth noting that the significance of countercyclical management should not be ignored in economic operation. We will also prove it in combination with macro-analysis and judgment, and will dynamically track it in light of the actual economic status.
.2, Combined with the output gap, economic elasticity in 2023
Combined with the three economic carriages (consumption, export and investment), the economic recovery rhythm is expected to be weak in 23 years.
From the total retail sales of social consumer goods in in the same month, according to Wind's consistent expectations, the year-on-year social retail sales in 23 Q1-4 is expected to be 4%, 11%, 4.5% and 4.5% respectively, and is expected to return to the level at the end of 2021, but there is still a big gap compared with 2019;
from fixed asset investment completed According to Wind's consistent expectations, the cumulative year-on-year of fixed asset investment in Q1-4 in 23 was 4.45%, 6.25%, 5.95% and 5.84% respectively, continuing the investment growth level in the second half of the year;
From the perspective of export year-on-year, , under the background of overseas recession, according to Wind's consistent expectations, the export growth rate in 23 may continue to slow down.
Overall, in the context of "stable investment + weak recovery of consumption + slowdown in exports", although the economy is expected to start recovery after 23Q1, the overall recovery rhythm will be relatively weak. We believe that the probability of slow climbing after the turning point of the output gap in industrial added value is relatively high.
further sinks to A-share corporate earnings forecast. We expect the growth rate of A-share shareholders to recover to 11% in 23 years, which is close to the level in 2013, which means that the overall economy is a weak recovery trend. 1) Based on the historical data from Q1 to Q3 from 2010, we match the A-share revenue growth rate based on the year-on-year industrial added value, year-on-year GDP, year-on-year PPI, and year-on-year exports, and fit the A-share net profit margin with the year-on-year PPI and seasonal factors; ) combines the above factors and the consistent profit expectation of Wind in 23 years to predict the growth rate and net profit margin of the full A in 23 years, and convert it to the year-on-year net profit attributable to the full A-attributable; 3) According to the statistical results, the growth rate of the full A-attributable to the parent in 23 years may be 11%, which is close to 2013 (14%).
and Deduction of the general trend characteristics in 2023
The cyclical operation of the output gap in industrial added value is of guidance for the trend of A-shares. Combined with the high probability assumption that the output gap "trend first and then rise" and "the fluctuation amplitude narrows", we believe that the Shanghai Composite Index is an anchor, and may appear as a narrow range oscillation pattern in 2023, and the operating rhythm and output gap show certain synchronization. At the same time, in terms of structure, the main line of style is expected to be reflected in emerging industries' breakthroughs, and traditional sectors are mainly bands and local.
.1, Output gap cycle guiding the general trend
Industrial added value output gap guides the trend of A-shares.Qualitatively, we believe that the output gap in industrial added value measures the changes in the economic supply and demand pattern and is an effective indicator portrayed by economic cycle , so it is highly instructive to A-shares; quantitatively, by browsing the output gap in industrial added value and the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index since December 1990, we found that:
, the output gap is highly correlated with the trend of the Shanghai Composite Index. was from the end of 1991 to mid-1998, from early 1999 to early 2002, from the end of 2002 to mid-2005. , From mid-2006 to the end of 2012, and from the beginning of 2016 to the present period, the trends of the two are almost the same;
, , during the period of the continuous upward trend of the output gap, that is, the stage of the economy moving from recovery to prosperity, the Shanghai Composite Index mostly emerged from the rising trend, but since 2010, the end of the rising trend of the Shanghai Composite Index is mostly ahead of the moment when the output gap peaks;
, the higher the improvement of the output gap, the more the Shanghai Composite Index point often increases. After , the industrial gap fluctuation range narrowed significantly compared with the previous one, while the fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index also narrowed during the same period.
.2. At the general trend, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range
Looking forward to 2023, we mentioned two changes in the output gap as mentioned above: First, the turning point of the output gap in industrial added value may appear at the end of 23Q1, that is, the opening of the economic recovery cycle is expected to open around Q2 in 23; . Although the recovery cycle of is expected to open within 23 years, combined with consumption, exports, investment and full A profit forecast, although the industrial added value output gap has been repaired, the improvement may be narrower than this.
Under this background, combined with the high-probability assumption that the output gap "trend first suppresses and then rises" and "the fluctuation amplitude narrows", we expect that the Shanghai Composite Index will be an anchor, and may appear as a narrow range oscillation pattern in 2023, and the operating rhythm and output gap will show certain synchronization.
.3. Highlights at the structural level are concentrated on emerging industries breaking through
In terms of structure, we can discuss it from the medium and short term. In the medium term, the industry cycle is the core variable of the dominant style. With the beginning of a new round of emerging industries, the growth style of small and medium-sized industries has ushered in a trend switch. In the short term, looking forward to 2023, the economy will be mainly moderately restored, which means that the economic improvement of traditional industries in is limited, and the highlights of the prosperity are concentrated on the opportunities brought by breakthroughs in emerging industries.
For the specific configuration strategy analysis of the industry in 2023, see "How to view the industry configuration in 2023? 》.
From a medium-term perspective, mainstream expectations often focus on monetary policy , valuation comparison, economic data and other factors when analyzing styles, but we believe that these do not touch the essence. In fact, the industrial cycle is the core variable of the dominant style. Under the dominant industry cycle of , the characteristic of style switching is "if you don't have it, you'll have it for several years", and the result is that there are only three rounds of large-level switching since 2000.
further thinks about the rules between industry and style, and it can be found that: behind each round of large-cap stock style, the corresponding macro background is the positive economic trend, This means that traditional industries with significant pro-cyclical attributes have increased profits, such as from 2002 to 2007, 2016 to 2020; behind each round of small-cap stock style, the corresponding macro background is the shift of economic growth and structural transformation, which means that emerging industries have breakthroughs, and such as the rise of the TMT industry from 2008 to 2015. In other words, the style of large and large markets is just a manifestation, and its essence lies in the change of the recovery cycle of traditional industries and the rise cycle of emerging industries.
Stand at present, the rise cycle of emerging industries dominated by energy revolution, strengthening chains and smart economy is unfolding. Against this background, A-shares usher in the fourth round of switching since 2000, that is, emerging growth trends dominate.
In the short term, looking forward to 2023, emerging growth will dominate against the backdrop of a moderate economic recovery.
Regarding the relationship between economy and style, we believe that it is often reflected in the downward phase of the economy, defense is the main focus, such as 2012 and 2018; in the strong recovery phase, value stocks are the dominant, such as 2016 to 2017; in the weak recovery phase, emerging growth is the dominant, such as 2013 and 2019. The previous analysis shows that the economic environment in 2023 is likely to be in a moderate state of restoration. In this context, the main line of style is reflected in the dominance of small and medium-sized growth.
In addition to emerging growth, for the cyclical, consumer and financial sectors, combined with valuation level and 2023 economic outlook, we believe that the overall situation is in the bottom area, and with the efforts of stable growth policies, there is a wave opportunity, but there is a lack of upward momentum in the short term, and it still needs consumer confidence and medium- and long-term loans to to recover.
Specifically, first, the cyclical style is highly correlated with the year-on-year trend of PPI, the financial style is highly consistent with the year-on-year trend of medium- and long-term loan balances, and the consumer style trend is affected by consumer confidence. Second, PPI year-on-year, medium- and long-term loan balances, and consumer confidence index is in the downward trend or bottoming out stage. From the perspective of fundamentals , the trend rise in cyclical, consumption and finance needs to be further waited.
, risk warning
1, the effectiveness of the cycle operation law has dropped significantly;
2, the economic upward trend exceeds expectations or the economic recovery is low;
3, geopolitical conflict exceeds expectations, which then affects risk preference .
This article is from the securities company research report selected
