RMB exchange rate has shown a strong upward momentum recently. On November 30, the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rates against the US dollar rose above the 7.10 yuan mark. On December 1, the mid-point of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose by 544 basis points. On December 2, the mid-price of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to rise by 683 basis points to 7.0542.
analyzes the reasons behind the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate. In the short term, is affected by factors such as market sentiment. At present, expectations for the recession of the US economy are strengthening. Against the backdrop of the cooling down of inflation data and the Fed "hints" to slow down the rate hike of , the US dollar index 11 fell by more than 5%, pushing the RMB to strengthen against the US dollar.
In the long run, the strengthening of the RMB exchange rate of shows that expectations for the domestic economy to stabilize and upward are strengthening. Recently, domestic favorable policies have been frequently released in the fields of epidemic optimization and real estate, which has enhanced the market's confidence in China's future economic recovery.
Since May, the package of policies and continuous measures for stabilizing the economy have been implemented and effective, effectively stabilizing market expectations and confidence, and the economy has rebounded and improved. Monetary policy and fiscal policies are strong, moderate and effective. my country has maintained the stability of the price situation against the backdrop of global high inflation. Although the economy faces downward pressure in the short term, my country's economy has strong resilience, great potential and sufficient vitality. The long-term improvement of fundamentals has not changed and is still an important stabilizer and source of power for world economic growth.
International balance of payments The foundation of the market is solid, and it is also an important guarantee for the smooth operation of in the foreign exchange market. In the first three quarters, my country's current account surplus was US$310.4 billion, and increased by year-on-year; from January to September, the trade surplus of goods was US$264.52 billion, a year-on-year increase of 52%. The net inflow of funds with abundant trade channels fully meets the foreign exchange needs of enterprises and residents. This is the basic basis for the supply and demand of foreign exchange to balance and the foreign exchange market to operate smoothly.
From the past, my country's exchange rate formation mechanism has withstood the test of multiple rounds of external shocks. The RMB exchange rate can be flexibly adjusted and restored to balance in a short period of time, effectively playing the role of a "cushion" to resist external shocks. In the future, should continue to insist that the market plays a decisive role in the formation of the RMB exchange rate, implement comprehensive measures, stabilize expectations, enhance the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, guide enterprises and financial institutions to establish the concept of risk neutral , resolutely stabilize the ups and downs of the exchange rate, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable equilibrium level.
