Today is January 1, 2023. The new year has arrived, and the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will officially open after the New Year's Day holiday. As of now, the adjustment range of oil prices is expected to be in a positive direction, and oil prices are expected to increase by about 0.2 yuan/liter.
The supply tightening is expected to continue, traders continue to weigh the prospects of both supply and demand, international oil prices finally ended 2022 with an increase. NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.86 US dollars/barrel or 2.37% at 80.26; ICE cloth oil futures month-changing 03 contract rose 2.45 US dollars/barrel or 2.93% at 85.91. China's INE crude oil futures main contract 2302 fell 1.1 to 552.8 yuan/barrel due to no night trading during the New Year's Day holiday.
International oil prices have risen during this cycle, but the overall support from the news is limited. Although the epidemic control policy has been relaxed, residents' travel caution has increased, and gasoline demand has recovered slowly. In addition, major operating units are actively chasing sales at the end of the month, and gasoline prices in the region continue to fall. In terms of diesel, affected by low temperature weather, outdoor oil companies have been restricted from starting operations, and the support for diesel demand has weakened. Diesel prices for major operating units have fallen along with the trend, and operators have limited market operations, and the market transaction atmosphere has been flat.
International oil prices are on the rise this cycle, and the news is positive. Refined oil products in central China are mostly supplied on demand, and the main units in central China sell them at wholesale. The progress of monthly main business tasks in various provinces and cities varies, and price adjustments vary.
At present, the oil price range-bound posture has not changed, and it continues to look for upside opportunities in a pressured environment, waiting for more guidance to arrive. It is expected that international oil prices may have room to rise next week, and tight supply and the New Year atmosphere may bring positive support. Affected by market demand and crude oil fluctuations, the main sales unit's shipments are average, but the National Development and Reform Commission's retail price limit is expected to rise. Therefore, it is expected that the price of refined oil or gasoline and diesel stocks in Central China may rise next week. It is recommended that operators reasonably adjust their stocking cycles based on their own actual conditions.
South China’s main gasoline and diesel sales declined steadily (92#7850-8400, -50/0; 0#7400-8050, -300/0). Crude oil rebounded after falling during the week, but its boost to the market was limited. At the end of the year, most of the main businesses in the region completed their annual tasks, and some units have completed their monthly tasks. Gasoline and diesel prices are showing signs of rising steadily. However, unfortunately, the market is still affected by the epidemic in the near future. Gasoline demand is weak. Diesel demand has weakened due to the decline in outdoor construction. Gasoline and diesel prices of some main units have continued to decline. The middle and lower reaches still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook, and actual follow-up is limited.
fundamentals : International oil prices have risen this week. The main positive factors are: Russia may reduce production early next year as a countermeasure to the West's price ceiling, and will also ban the export of crude oil to any country that accepts a price ceiling. Demand side: The peak of epidemic infection in many places in the region has passed, and people's travel will increase in the future. Gasoline demand is expected to increase; the off-season for diesel demand is coming.
At present, the peak of epidemic infection has passed in many places in the region. People's travel is expected to increase in the future, and gasoline demand is on the rise. As the end of the year approaches, outdoor projects may be completed ahead of schedule, and diesel demand continues to weaken. The retail sales will be raised next Monday, and the main business unit will enter the new year's sales cycle. Market players will pay more attention to the main business's "good start" promotion activities, and watch more and do less. It is expected that the gasoline and diesel market in South China will see an increase in gasoline and a decrease in diesel.
Northwest Independent Refinery, gasoline and diesel both fell (92#7469, -56; 0#7262, -216). International crude oil rose during the week, and the news provided good guidance. Due to the liberalization of epidemic prevention policies in the northwest region, the epidemic situation in the region has recurred, and the price of gasoline has fallen; the price of diesel has entered the traditional low season of demand, and the price has dropped.
This cycle, international oil prices have risen, and the news has provided good guidance. The operating load of the main refineries in the northwest region remains stable, and there are no new maintenance plans in the near future; the maintenance of refinery equipment in the northwest region has been completed, normal shipments, and refinery inventories are low. The overall market trading atmosphere this week was light, with average midstream and downstream sales and average refinery shipments.
Looking at the market outlook: It is expected that international oil prices may have room to rise next week, and tight supply and the New Year atmosphere may bring positive support.It is expected that WTI may run in the range of 76-80 US dollars/barrel, and Brent may run in the range of 81-85 US dollars/barrel. Refined petroleum products: As the Chinese New Year is approaching, there are certain positive guidelines for gasoline market demand, and gasoline may pick up. It is expected that the price of gasoline and diesel for the main operating units in the northwest may increase, and the price of diesel will increase by 100-150 yuan/ton. Due to the expected increase in the next round of price adjustments by the National Development and Reform Commission, gasoline prices at refineries in northwest China are expected to remain stable next week, while diesel prices will increase by 50-100 yuan/ton.
Finally, the author will take you to take a look at the selling prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline after the latest price adjustment nationwide on January 1, 2023. This is also the retail price limit of various types of gasoline and diesel in 31 provinces and cities across the country today. The following prices are for reference only. The specific retail prices are subject to actual transactions at local gas stations.
