On November 9, the decoration and building materials sector rose sharply. Since November, the sector's has increased by more than 8%. On the news, in October, the scale of non-bank financing for real estate companies, rose 16.4% year-on-year, and showed positive growth for the first time this year, indicating that the environment for financing for real estate companies, , is improving and market expectations have improved.
Guosen Securities Huang Daoli and others pointed out in the "Building Materials Industry Fund Holdings Special Topic: The building materials industry continues to be low-level, and it is recommended to actively go long for the leading enterprises in the real estate chain - 221108", The policy environment in the near future continues to be cared for. Under the background of "stable growth", the infrastructure end is expected to continue to recover; real estate policies are still marginally relaxed, "guaranteed delivery" is gradually implemented, and policies such as government procurement of green building materials, and new waterproofing regulations are released to promote industrial upgrading. Policy accumulation and marginal improvement of data are also conducive to sectors going long.
From the perspective of fundamental , China Galaxy Securities Wang Ting pointed out in the "Building Materials Industry Dynamic Report: Q3 Performance is under pressure, and we look forward to demand recovery-221109" that The revenue and net profit growth rate of the building materials industry in the first three quarters of 2022 showed a downward trend.
Oriental Securities Huang Ji and others pointed out in the "Building Materials Industry Weekly Report: Industry performance and data are still under pressure, and they are optimistic about Q4 Consumer Building Materials Repair-221102" that the reason why Q3 performance further hit the bottom of is mainly due to cyclical building materials. First, because the average glass price reached a new low in recent years in Q3, and secondly, the price of glass fiber fell sharply in Q3. Third, the peak season of cement prices has not been strong, which has been lower than the same period last year, while coal prices have continued to rise. "Soft downstream demand, high upstream costs, and tighter cash flow" is still the main factor restricting the profit level of the building materials industry in Q3.
compares the third quarter report with Q3 industry data. Oriental Securities believes that the post-cyclical end data of and some sub-industry industries of listed companies are beginning to show signs of bottom improvement.
Looking ahead to the future market, Huaxin Securities Huang Junwei pointed out in the "2023 Strategy Report on the Decoration Building Materials Industry: The turning point of concentration improvement is coming, and the era of high-quality development of consumer building materials is coming - 221031", the completion end of real estate is expected to be restored in 2023. At the same time, the building materials industry has entered a stage of high-quality development. The implementation of green building materials policies and waterproofing improvement policies will hedge the decline in the scale of the consumer building materials market to a certain extent. The scale of various consumer building materials segments is expected to rebound rapidly in 2023.
1) During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the construction of passive houses ushered in a hot spot. In March 2022, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reached the goal of "the energy-saving renovation area of existing buildings is more than 350 million square meters, and construction of ultra-low energy consumption and nearly zero energy consumption buildings is more than 500 million square meters" in 2025. Many places actively implemented economic incentives such as subsidies and land use. If the energy-saving building target of 400 million square meters is achieved, the relevant low-energy-consuming building materials will add 280 billion yuan to the market demand of during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
2) waterproofing new regulations are implemented, and higher requirements are placed on product usage, performance and construction technology. The General Specifications for Waterproofing of Construction and Municipal Engineering, which was launched in October 2022, significantly increased the waterproof design period requirements and increased the number of construction channels for waterproofing. The increase in material thickness + the increase in construction channels will increase to 40%-60% of the capacity of the waterproof industry.
In addition, the new regulations put forward standardization requirements for the quality and construction technology of waterproofing materials , which is expected to drive the increase in the concentration of the waterproof market and benefit high-quality waterproofing companies.
3) Leading companies have entered other tracks and expanded horizontally based on channel advantages. While creating new profit growth points, they have enhanced their ability to resist the risks of downstream industries.
From the industry perspective, the supply and demand pattern has changed, and the increase in concentration in 2023 will become the top logic.
sales end, leading enterprises "update" small and medium-sized enterprises through , strengthen sales personnel incentives, promote channel sinking, and improve services to foreman and terminal owners, etc.On the production end of
, the production cost advantages of leading enterprises in are expected to be further expanded . Taking Oriental Yuhong as an example, its VAE emulsion and VAEP rubber powder production lines are under construction. With the leading enterprises being laid out on the production end, their competitive advantages over small and medium-sized enterprises will be more prominent, and the industry concentration is expected to increase at an accelerated pace.
Guosen Securities also believes that This round of adjustment has accelerated the industry reshuffle, and the leading companies have high certainty in Alpha, and the long-term growth space and potential remain.
related targets (China Galaxy Securities): 1. Leading consumer building materials that benefit from the increased industry concentration: Yuan Co., Ltd., Beixin Building Materials, Oriental Yuhong, Keshun Co., Ltd., Jianlang Hardware, Weixing New Materials.
2. The leading glass fiber glass leader benefiting from wind power and increased export demand: China Jushi .
3, glass leader Qibin Group , and Luoyang Glass, which focuses on the new energy sector.
4, regional leader in the cement industry, which benefited from the recovery of infrastructure investment, Huaxin Cement, Shangfeng Cement .
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