Today, has a clear bottoming signal in the A-share market. After opening low and closing low, with the rapid intervention of mysterious funds, A-share ushered in a super rebound timeline, indicating that funds have begun to have the willingness to to go long . Faced with such a strong willingness to go long, I think it is necessary to start to go long, rather than be too bearish on the market. After all, over-bearing will lead to a dead cycle and miss the low period of investment. At the same time, we can find that the dollar index has a reversal trend, that is, the US dollar index has begun to reversal downward trend. This is all based on Federal Reserve not so strong After hiking interest rates at , market funds have begun to become optimistic. Facing the optimistic side of funds, can we also start to be optimistic?
1. The US dollar index has a clear signal of peaking. After the US dollar index reached the highest level of 114.79, the subsequent trend became relatively weak and has been consolidating at a high level. The recent trend seems to have begun to weaken significantly. From the trend line, we can find that this weakening trend potential indicates that the US dollar index is currently peaking. We all know that the weight of the US dollar index is mainly the British pound, the euro and the Japanese yen. Energy prices have fallen rapidly recently, and the European economy seems to have a recovery trend again. Then the relative currency has an appreciation trend, and the US dollar index will inevitably decline.
Therefore, as long as the Federal Reserve expects to stop hikes in interest rates, the US dollar index will inevitably begin to turn downward. Of course this is expected. If the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates by 125 basis points in the next November and December, then risk-free interest rates such as US Treasury yields will still soar, and the US dollar index will still rise violently. Therefore, in the next two months, the potential risk is the situation of the Federal Reserve hike rate . If such a high-intensity interest rate hike continues, the US dollar index will inevitably rise sharply, of course it is just the end of the force. After all, if the interest rate is not raised next year, everything will be the last blow.
2. After the US dollar index is expected to peak, the US dollar will start to go long. The US dollar will start to go long. Once the US dollar index reaches peak, a large number of US dollars will no longer continue to flow back frantically. Then the risk rate interest rates such as US bonds will stabilize and will not continue to soar. Crazy absorbs , and the US dollar will start to go long. First of all, the positive news is definitely US stock .
The rebound trend of the US stock market is very obvious recently. After all, the biggest positive for the US dollar index bottoming out is the US stock market. Therefore, investing in US stocks in the near future is relatively stable timing strategy. I also recommend buying some US stocks at this stage to stabilize the yield.
And if the Fed expects to stop raising interest rates in the future, US stocks will definitely continue to move forward well. This is a very certain way of moving forward in the history of US stocks. It’s just that the US stock market cannot soar due to insufficient liquidity in the US dollar. However, it is certain that the strengthening starts at the stage, so starting to go long at this time is likely to be a good choice. It is recommended that Nasdaq ETF and Dow ETF.
Of course, after the US dollar starts to go long for US stocks, the US dollar will also go long for global assets, including futures , Hong Kong stock , Shanghai Stock Connect , etc. If the main foreign capital is not panic, the probability of Hong Kong stocks and A-shares bottoming out and reversing becomes very high, and I am optimistic about the occurrence of this matter.
3. At this time, it is not that scary to go long in A-shares.
At present, it is not that scary to go long in A-shares at this stage. After all, the risk of the Fed's forced interest rate hikes on the outside has gradually been lifted. Without such an external factor, the potential risks of A-shares have begun to become less. After all, the large outflow of the US dollar has caused a large amount of foreign capital to sell in the stock market, which puts huge pressure on the stock market. However, after the Federal Reserve does not raise interest rates, the intensity of the US dollar outflow will be greatly reduced, so the stability of the stock market will become very good.
At present, the valuations of many industries have become very low, such as the banking sector, real estate sector, consumer industry, pharmaceutical industry, etc. Faced with such large-scale low-valuation industries, is it a good choice to choose to participate? Moreover, the policy has begun to release more money. Today, the large-scale use of reverse repurchase is also a signal, that is, as long as the Federal Reserve does not continue to raise interest rates, then the policy will have plans to release money. As the amount of money increases, the stock market will inevitably usher in a good prosperity.
The most important thing is that tonight's policy efforts should strengthen departmental cooperation to maintain the healthy development of the stock market, bond market and real estate market. This sends a strong signal, that is, the stock market will be stable in the future, so corresponding policies will begin to be exported, so there is no need to be bearish on A-shares. Starting to long A-shares is the king.
