[Editor's Note] This article was originally published by the author Professor Hu Maoren , a senior researcher at Kunlun Ce Research Institute, for research reference.
German political and business circles seem to be not so consistent in their attitude towards China. German Economic Minister Habek not long ago after the meeting of the G7 Economic and Trade Ministers of the West, he openly declared that Germany's naivety towards China had ended. Germany's Ministry of Economic Affairs is formulating a new trade policy with China and strengthening investment review to reduce its dependence on the Chinese market and products.
German media has similar views to German political circles. Since the beginning of this year, German media seems to have always called for German companies to withdraw their investment from China. The reason is that German companies have too high production and operation risks in China. German media believe that because of the visit to Taiwan by Pelosi, Sino-US relations have deteriorated sharply. Once China and the United States are economically decoupled, China's economic situation will be greatly hit. In this way, German companies in China will definitely be affected. In the words of ordinary people, they will be robbed. Therefore, if German companies want to avoid such blows and losses, they must withdraw their investment from China as soon as possible.
However, the ideas of German companies are somewhat different from those of German government officials and from those of German media. Unlike the United States and other European countries, German companies only attach importance to the financial industry, German companies pay more attention to physical industries such as manufacturing. After years of development, Germany has gained a firm foothold in the international market in the fields of automobile manufacturing, high-end instrument manufacturing, and chemical industry.
For German companies, they need more market and development direction. Today, Germany's high-end manufacturing industry can achieve rapid development relying on long-term cooperation with China. Without China's broad market, Germany's high-end industries might not have developed so smoothly.
Although German political circles and German media have claimed that China's economic environment may be turbulent and has high risks, German companies do not think so. In the eyes of German companies, if they withdraw from China, there will be no hope for German companies, so German companies would rather stay in China. This is mainly because China is the core of the most important economic circle in Asia, China has the highest social stability, and the epidemic is also controlled the best. Therefore, China has become the most suitable region for economic development in the eyes of Germany and other countries.
German companies expressed their true ideas and considerations with practical actions. According to data from the German Business Daily, in the first half of 2022 alone, Germany invested 10 billion euros in China, and chemical giant BASF , and announced plans to invest 10 billion euros (about 70 billion yuan). In addition, Volkswagen announced an investment of nearly 17 billion yuan to cooperate with China's Horizon Company to establish a new company and jointly develop autonomous driving technology. Germany's BMW company will invest 10 billion yuan to expand its high-voltage battery production center in Shenyang and expand its investment in battery projects in China.
Why German companies not only did not withdraw their investment from China, but instead increased their investment in China? The reason may be more complicated. But there is one reason that people can see. That is, the United States and European countries impose sanctions on Russia's oil and natural gas , which has led to a surge in energy prices, causing a large-scale energy crisis in Europe. If German companies do not find ways to save themselves, a large part of German companies will go bankrupt or go bankrupt.
As a result, this effective self-rescue method is not only not to withdraw investment from China, but to increase investment in China. In the eyes of many German companies, keeping the company in China and continuously developing and expanding the business operations in China is the most effective way for German companies to rescue themselves. German political circles and media, no matter how fooling themselves, they have to learn from the United States and decouple from China in terms of economy, but German companies are not stupid. They know what to do to survive.
As the German government, although political circles have repeatedly warned about what risks and crises would be if companies stay in China.But in the three years since the epidemic, the fact is the best classroom teaching. Because in the past three years, only China's economy has been growing continuously, and in the past two years, China's economic growth rate has remained the highest. No matter how erratic such a living fact, Western political circles and media cannot block the real facts. Now Germany and Europe are facing a huge energy crisis and inflation . So in this more difficult situation, can German companies have other choices? If they do not stay in China and do not increase their investment in China, then German companies will have almost no way to survive.
Germany was torn apart like this. Political circles and media require the German economy to keep a distance from China. In Habeck's words, they cannot be too naive to China. Not naive? Is Germany going to mature? But no matter how you look at this situation, you can't tell where the German political circles and media are mature? German companies still seem to be more mature than the German political circles and media. And the real naivety is precisely the German political circle and media.
Of course, the normal economic relations between China and Germany are beneficial to both China and Germany. There is no such terrible situation here that is alarmist. It is said that because German companies stay in China or increase investment in China, only China has taken advantage of this economic relationship, while Germany can only suffer losses in this relationship. Obviously, this is not the case. What can people say about the unrealistic hysteria of German politics and the media?
When this winter is approaching, when the inflation and energy crisis in Europe and Germany are intensifying, people may recognize that German companies are wise to choose China. But will the German political circles and media change their attitudes even if they see this fact? This matter seems difficult to say. Because even if some people see the real facts, their position and attitude will not change easily. This is as Chairman Mao said back then, no matter how you do your job, what real facts will be placed in front of him, and his mind will not change. No one can do anything to such a person. That's why Chairman Mao said that this is the person who takes the granite head to meet God.
Germany is a major manufacturing country in Europe. In theory, although France's manufacturing industry is slightly inferior to Germany, it should also have strong strength. Will French companies follow the choices made by German companies? This is not easy to say. People often say that French people are romantic, but sometimes, romantic people may not be the kind of special-supervised people. Sometimes the French are no less than the British. Otherwise, in history, there was a Hundred Years War with France, and a Thirty Years War with . This seems to happen only between two countries that are special.
Sometimes, persistence is a good quality, but sometimes the so-called persistence, that is, the so-called axis, is often a bit out of reality. Some people may say that people should stick to their own values, what's wrong with this? Regarding adhering to values, we must first see whether such values really make sense and whether they are in line with reality. Then we have to see that when adhering to the principles of values, we sometimes need to adopt some flexible strategy, at least not to compete with our own survival and interests in order to adhere to values that seem to be unreasonable.
No matter what, German companies have set a benchmark and an example for many European companies. This benchmark and role model tell European companies that when politicians and media cannot think and judge normally, as companies, they should think carefully. What exactly makes sense and is realistic.
(The author is a professor of , , Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, senior researcher at Kunlun Ce Research Institute; source: Kunlun Ce.com [author authorization] , transferred from the WeChat public account of "Baihang Lao Hu's Gossip"; the picture is from the Internet, delete if infringes)
