The third trading week in October ended, next week will be the last week of the month, and the last quarter of 2022 will also pass one-third. Today we will briefly talk about the current status of A shares and the subsequent trends.
Globally, the economic downturn has gradually become a consensus. With the uncertainty of geopolitical , the world's major capital markets will be in a long-term downward channel. In this process, there will be phased rebounds. These rebound processes may have longer cycles and shorter cycles. They all need to be viewed according to the specific situation at that time. However, the important point is that they are all rebounds, including our A-share market . Therefore, we characterized the rise of A-shares as a rebound, not a reversal! !
The major external stock markets are currently entering a rebound cycle, especially the three major U.S. stock indexes have begun to rebound after hitting a new low in October. Due to the solid bottom this time, the rebound cycle is relatively long. Take Dow Jones as an example. On October 12, it hit a new low of 28,660 points. From a technical analysis perspective, this low point and the last 28,715 points form a short-term double bottom . This position is also an important support level in the medium and long term, so after confirmation, you can continue to look at the first-line high. Dow Jones Index rebound height can be seen around 32,000 points.
The capital market is warm and hot: revise the rules for repurchasing shares of listed companies to encourage listed companies to repurchase their own shares; many fund companies announce repurchasing their products; lower the transfer and financing fee rate; allow some real estate companies to raise funds in the market, etc. It should be noted that these positive factors are launched in less than 20 days! This kind of favorable push frequency in the market has been relatively rare in recent years, which fully demonstrates the management's recognition of the current position of the market.
From a technical perspective, the index rebounded for 5 consecutive days. The adjustment on Thursday and Friday was to close the positive line cross star, which is a clear signal of stabilization. Moreover, the financial sector is at a low level and there is limited room for decline. Take the securities sector as an example. Friday was positive for to open high and close low and , with trading volume increasing by 50%. We think this yin line is a false yin line. Although it is a yin line, it effectively stands on the 20-day moving average, but the trend has completely changed! !
The current market, from the perspective of the three aspects of external environment, policy direction and technical trend, is a relatively large environment. So we repeatedly reminded that this round of rebound has not been completed. It should be noted that it is still a rebound, not a reversal! ! If we want to predict the rebound height, we think it will be at least around 3200 points!
Personal opinions, for reference only. I hope everyone will pay attention and like it. I wish you a happy weekend! !
