Zhitong Finance APP learned that on October 13, data released by the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association showed that the domestic industrial silicon market was improving this week, and the price of industrial silicon rose slightly. Among them, the metallurgical grade rose by 100-350 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price was between 20400-21300 yuan/ton; the chemical grade rose by 200 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price was between 21200-22000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 remained stable, with the mainstream quotation of 18,700 yuan/ton; the price of silicone DMC fell by 500 yuan/ton, with the mainstream quotation of 17,500 yuan/ton. This week is the first week after the National Day holiday. The industrial silicon market is generally stable, with relatively light transactions. The upstream and downstream are in the game stage, and silicon prices are rising steadily.
Specifically, supply side: Xinjiang epidemic rebounded, traffic control in main production areas such as Shihezi , Yili has become tighter, factory output is blocked, and some silicon factories in Yili have faced a tight situation of raw materials; Sichuan and Yunnan are approaching the dry season, and factories are planning to shut down Nujiang this week.
Demand end: polysilicon new production capacity has been released one after another. Under the stimulation of downstream photovoltaic installation, GCL, Tongwei and other companies started construction at high loads, and the demand for industrial silicon was hot; the terminal demand for aluminum alloy and silicone is average, fluctuating downward, and the prices are at a low level. This week, the prices of aluminum alloys and silicone have formed a significant inverted with the prices of industrial silicon. Related factories are struggling around the loss line. Some Yunnan aluminum plants continue to reduce the start-up load, and a silicone monomer factory in Shandong has begun to stop maintenance, and the demand for industrial silicon has weakened.
Upstream is bullish and reluctant to sell, and silicon factories are willing to support prices and raise prices; downstream is afraid of high prices, so they have fewer inquiries and purchases, so they mainly wait and see; upstream and downstream are in a stalemate stage. In foreign markets, overseas demand has not changed significantly after the holiday, and the prices of FOBs of each brand remained stable.
According to the survey, the total national output of industrial silicon in September was 250,300 tons, a decrease of 3.43% month-on-month and 3.73% year-on-year. The output of the three major domestic production areas has declined to varying degrees. Among them, due to the epidemic in September, the output in Xinjiang was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 7.06% month-on-month; in September, due to the tight power supply in Yunnan, the output fell to 67,200 tons, a decrease of 9.80% month-on-month; under the influence of the epidemic, earthquakes and other factors, the output of in Sichuan decreased to 24,000 tons, a decrease of 4.0% month-on-month.
As of early October, the number of furnaces opened in Sichuan was more than 60 units, and the number of furnaces opened in Yunnan was more than 90 units. The number of furnaces opened in the southwest region during the dry period was estimated to drop to more than 130 units. At the same time, the electricity price in the dry period in the southwest region will rise slightly, ranging from the current average price of 0.4 yuan/kWh to 0.5-0.6 yuan/kWh. Although the recent demand for silicone and aluminum alloys is average, the polysilicon industry has strong demand for industrial silicon. , in the future, with the tight supply and the increase in production costs, domestic industrial silicon prices are expected to remain stable or even slightly rise.
