1. The three major crises caused by the US GDP continues to decline, and hyperinflation? Can China save it?
GDP is the final result of production activities of all permanent units in a country (or region) calculated based on market prices within a certain period; GDP is the core indicator of national economic accounting , and is also an important indicator to measure the economic status and development level of a country or region.
Recession refers to an economist's statement about the economic crisis . An economic recession may lead to a decline in multiple economic indicators at the same time, such as GDP, employment, investment and corporate profits, etc.; a severe recession is called an economic collapse.
Data released by the US Department of Commerce show that US GDP has declined for two consecutive quarters, down 1.6% in the first quarter, and the US real GDP in the second quarter was -0.6% year-on-month, which is in line with the generally accepted definition of technical recession.
The US domestic economy has experienced various serious problems. Not only is the economic recession, but more serious is the highest hyperinflation in 41 years. According to data from the US Department of Labor, in April, May, June, July and August, the year-on-year increase of the US consumer price index CPI was 8.3%, 8.6%, 9.1%, 8.5% and 8.3% respectively.
The important reason why the United States has experienced such severe hyperinflation is that the two presidents of the United States have greatly expelled more than 7 trillion US dollars for the sake of votes, artificially increasing the growth rate of US GDP during the election. The result is that serious inflation sequelae after the choice.
In the face of such severe hyperinflation, Fed had to turn on the fastest rate hike in history. It started the first rate hike in March 2022. By September, Fed hikes hikes five times, 300 basis points, and federal benchmark rate hikes to reach the range of 3% to 3.25%.
0 The US GDP continues to decline, and the Fed's crazy interest rate hike after hyperinflation, resulting in a hard landing in the US economy (a hard landing refers to the fact that economic growth is not only a sharp decline in the short term, but also cannot return to its original level within 2-3 years). also brings three serious crises to the US economy?
first, the US stock market continued to fall sharply, Dow Jones Index fell from 36952 points to 28725 points; S&P 500 index fell from 4818 points to 3585 points; Nasdaq Index fell from 16212 points to 10575 points.
Moreover, the decline of the three major U.S. indexes in 2022 is very dangerous; firstly, the high point is the decline in the bull market in 13 years; secondly, the decline process is a volatile decline. The biggest feature of this decline is that it rebounds after a period of sharp decline and then continues to have a new low. The result of is that the super main funds have sufficient time to ship, which means that the bear market is very long.
Second, the U.S. one-year Treasury yield is 4.1% (a year increase of 50 times, less than 0.1% in September 2021), a biennium of 4.2% and a ten-year of 3.69%. The one-year U.S. Treasury yield is 50 times that of 2021; rapid interest rate hikes triggered the fastest surge in the U.S. short-term interest rates, while the recession deepened the inverted yield curve.
07 million Treasury bonds, calculated at an annual interest rate of 3.6%, the annual interest expenditure exceeds US$110.52 billion; The US GDP in 2021 was only US$22.93 trillion, the US fiscal revenue in 2021 was approximately US$4.03 trillion, and fiscal expenditure was approximately US$6.82 trillion. The US government's deficit in 2021 reached approximately US$2.8 trillion.
The US fiscal is completely unable to repay US Treasury bonds and interest. The only way is to continue to raise the debt ceiling, the Federal Reserve keeps printing US dollars, borrowing new debts to repay old debts; the US US debt crisis is getting closer and closer!
, U.S. Treasury bonds have significantly surpassed U.S. GDP, and the interest rate of treasury bonds soared , which means that the cost of issuing bonds in the United States is getting higher and higher, and the credit of the US dollar is getting worse and worse. The US debt crisis has undoubtedly triggered the US dollar crisis . At the same time, the US government freezes US dollar assets in other countries without principle, and further seriously damages US dollar credit.
Not only Russia, Iran , Venezuela and the United States are abandoning the US dollar, but also friendly countries or allies such as India, Japan, Germany, and Italy are also de-dollarization. Countries including emerging markets and Europe have started the process of de-dollarization in their own ways.
These three crises have caused serious economic crisis in the United States, and also has rumors that US Treasury Secretary Yellen may resign after the midterm elections. There are economic problems, and the Treasury Secretary is undoubtedly the best " robber".
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2007 eventually triggered the global financial crisis in 2008. In order to respond to the crisis, China adopted a very responsible attitude and introduced a response plan with a total investment of that will reach 4 trillion yuan, allowing the United States to survive the economic crisis and economic recovery.
However, the economic crisis caused by severe hyperinflation in the United States in 2022 was caused by the United States. Not only did China not be able to save it, but other countries also found it difficult to provide countermeasures to help the United States.
First of all, the United States freezes the dollar assets of other countries without principle, causing countries to significantly abandon US debt and de-dollarization. The United States itself will not change this, and other countries will not help the United States.
Secondly, the serious inflation in the United States is an important reason for this. The high tariffs issued by the US government have artificially pushed up prices. If the US government cancels tariffs, it will undoubtedly reduce domestic prices and domestic inflation. If the US itself does not change this, other countries will not be able to help.
Therefore, in this domestic crisis in the United States, China cannot save it, and help it, and other countries also have no way!
The United States, relying on factors such as the world currency status of the US dollar and its strong comprehensive national strength, has developed arrogance and arrogance; Shakespeare once said: "A proud person always destroys himself in pride"; the United States undoubtedly strides forward on this road!
2, Duan Index , Dow Jones Index, and Nasdaq Index Trend Analysis
Duan Index surged to 114.8 and then fell back to the 112.1 region after the Federal Reserve's sharp interest rate hikes. The market expects that there will be 100-125 basis points in 2022; but the sharp rise in the US dollar has caused US bond yields to rise, and the opportunity for a debt crisis in the United States has risen.
Dow Jones Index fell 1.71%, the Nasdaq Index fell 1.51%, and the S&P 500 Index fell 1.51%. The index position was in the low range of June 2022, and the Dow Jones Index and the S&P 500 Index have fallen below the June low.
At the same time, US stock leader Tes fell 1.1%, Amazon fell 2.72%, Apple fell 3%. The leading stock fell simultaneously, which means that the US stocks still have room to fall.
3, Shanghai Index , GEM Index Trend Analysis
A shares As a result of the simultaneous decline in the US stock market, A-shares fell simultaneously; the ChiNext Index fell 1.89%, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.55%, and the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%; the index closed below the 5-day, 10-day and 20-day moving averages, and the index was still on the downward trend, beware of risks.
4. Summary of Wenqutang stock market trading experience
At the end of the stock market decline, the sectors that were wrongly killed, seriously undervalued sectors, especially industry sectors that can drive the index to rise, have certain opportunities in market bottomed out and stopped falling and rising.
The securities sector began to decline in July 2020, with a decline cycle of more than 24 months. Guotai Junan and Haitong Securities have fallen below the net assets, and the leading CITIC Securities is close to the net assets; this is relatively rare in the historical market of the securities sector, and this sector is worthy of focus research!
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