At the beginning of this week, stimulated by the UK's radical tax cuts, the market's risk aversion sentiment rose, the yields of the US dollar and US bonds soared, and spot gold was sold out indiscriminately, falling by more than $20. However, the yields of US dollar and US bonds then rose to and fell back to , and spot gold rebounded, closing sharply on Wednesday for more than $30, and the other three trading days ended with a slight close. Gold ended up rising $17.73 this week, but fell $50.27 this month.
At present, Wall Street 's "bongs" are experiencing a moment of despair.
U.S. stocks encountered despair moment
Just passed, the US stocks experienced a tragic decline.
U.S. stocks have just experienced a turbulent September, with S&P 500 index and Dow Jones Industrial Average falling by 9.3% and 8.8% respectively, which was the worst September since 2002; S&P fell by 25% in the year, and the decline has ranked third in history (since 1931). Compared with the high in January, the total market value of S&P 500 has evaporated by about US$10 trillion (approximately RMB 71 trillion) .
Faced with this tragic selling wave, the US stock bulls are in a moment of despair, retail investors fled wildly, and unprecedentedly spent 18 billion US dollars (approximately RMB 128 billion) to buy put options , and the stock exposure of hedge fund also dropped to a historical low.
According to statistics from the US media, in several bear markets in the history of the US, the average decline of US stocks in 20 months reached 39%, which means that currently has a potential decline of 19% for the US stock market ; and the current bear market lasted for 9 months, less than 50% of the average duration of the past 14 bear markets.
Feder also began to get nervous. On September 30, local time, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Brainard warned that the Federal Reserve is closely monitoring the impact of its own policy actions on the global economy and financial system. In addition, Bank of America warned that 's current credit pressure indicator in the United States has approached the critical point . If the Federal Reserve no longer finds the balance point from controlling inflation and unexpected risks, the United States may have a financial market crisis like the United Kingdom.
In fact, the financial market is not just as simple as "worrying about Feder rate hike ", but it also encountered exchange rate crisis, liquidity crisis, trust crisis, risk spillover crisis , and the crisis has penetrated into the bone marrow.
The evolution of the financial market is very similar to Bian Que Several times to see Duke Huan of Cai .
see for the first time (corresponding to the Fed's first rate hike 75 basis points), Bian Que said, "Your disease is in the skin, and if you don't treat it, you will be deeply affected."
see for the second time (corresponding to the Fed's second hike 75 basis points), Bian Que said, "Your disease is in the skin, and if you don't treat it, you will become more deeply affected."
see for the third time (corresponding to the Fed's third hike 75 basis points points points), Bian Que said, "Your disease is in the stomach and stomach." , it will become more and more serious if it is not cured."
Bian Que left after seeing him for the fourth time, leaving a sentence: "In the bone marrow, where the life belongs, there is no way."
It is worth mentioning that the "eye of the storm" in the European financial market in the United Kingdom, is about to face the next " Black Swan " . On October 21, S&P and Moody's among the three major rating agencies in the world will re-evaluate the credit rating of the British government. Once the credit rating is downgraded, it will put huge pressure on the UK's foreign debt.
The market now takes the recession almost for granted . The situation is already so serious - but the messy Fed official speeches continue to add fuel to the fire. The United States will release non-farm data next week, and there are still many Fed officials' speeches, and the market may be turbulent again.
employment and inflation data are highly anticipated
The recent trend of gold prices will mainly depend on the employment and inflation data released in the first two weeks of October.
"I don't think gold prices will break through until we see jobs and inflation data. If the CPI or employment data is stronger than expected, it is bad for gold.This suggests that the Fed is more likely to continue hikes according to the 4.6% outline in the dot chart. High inflation also means that the market may digest more radical measures in the future," said Melek.
The market generally expects that the non-farm employment report will show that jobs increased by 250,000 in September, and the unemployment rate remained at a nearly 50-year low of 3.7%. expects annual inflation in September to reach 8.1% and 8.3% in August .
In addition, major foreign events continue.
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local time on October 1, Indonesia severe fan conflict caused 174 deaths, and the Indonesian president ordered the suspension of all leagues. In Brazil , the first round of the voting for the four-year Brazilian election officially began, former Brazilian president Lula is expected to rule for three times.
local time on October 2, Indonesian President Joko Widodo expressed condolences to the victims of the conflict between fans in Malang City, East Java, and ordered the suspension of all leagues.
Secondly, is in Europe, Germany, Denmark , Sweden will work together to investigate the damage of the Nord Stream pipeline .
Local time, German Interior Minister Nancy Feather said that Germany will form an investigation team with Denmark and Sweden to investigate the "obviously intentional damage" of the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline.
The above The three countries have strengthened patrols in North Sea and Baltic Sea .
It is worth noting that Russia's foreign affairs Nareshkin, director of the report bureau, said on September 30 that existing materials from the Russian side show that there are "traces of the West" behind the damage to the natural gas pipeline of the "North Stream".
Experts said that in the long run, the large amount of methane leaked from the "North Stream" will have a catastrophic impact on the climate and may cause a serious ecological crisis in the Baltic Sea region.
Finally, in the Russian-Ukrainian war, Ukrainian said that he had won the Russian supply center .
It is reported that Russia and Ukrainian have recently launched a fierce battle over the control of the strategic location of the Donetsk region. Ukrainian media said on October 1 that the Ukrainian army had controlled the HKL Mann, and the Russian Ministry of Defense stated on the same day that the Russian army and the Donbass regional armed forces had evacuated from HKL Mann.
In response to this, the Russian side stated that due to the threat of being surrounded, the Russian army and Donbas region armed forces have evacuated from Chongliman to a more favorable position.
It is understood that the geographical location of the bossman is important, and this place was used as a hub for ground communication and logistics supply for the Russian army's frontline .
How to move forward in the future?
The latest Kitco News gold survey shows that Wall Street analysts and ordinary retail investors have been optimistic about gold recently as the price of gold is at an important long-term support/resistance level at the end of the week, after gold prices rebounded from a two-year low.
This week, a total of 16 market professionals participated in the Wall Street survey of Kitco News. Among them, 10 analysts (63%) were bullish on gold prices next week, and 3 analysts were bearish and flat, each accounting for 19%.
Retail investors, 731 respondents participated in the online survey. Of these, 389 (53%) are expected to rise next week, another 225 (31%) are predicting the price of gold to fall, and the remaining 117 (16%) are expected to consolidate sideways.
