A-shares suddenly fell sharply for two consecutive days on Thursday and Friday, and major indexes have infinitely approached the lowest point of A-shares on April 27. But in fact, it’s not bad. Consumer, medicine, and banking and land insurance are all quite resistant to beatings. What really fell rapidly are the previous super popular economic tracks, such as CATL, WuXi AppTec, and WuXi Biologics. On the surface, they all seem to be caused by US sanctions, but in fact they are not. Today, let’s talk about how to avoid thunder in stock selection.
01
Everyone thinks it is the most dangerous
Before that, CXO (outsourced pharmaceutical research and development and production) was grouped to the point where it is impossible to add up. Many big Vs are praising "CXO is a water seller and a shovel. Regardless of whether downstream pharmaceutical companies make money or not, CXO will definitely make money." It’s simply nonsense. You can’t fool retail investors like this. If you don’t make money, you will definitely reduce capital expenditure and reduce investment in new drug research and development, and venture capital will no longer come. Can upstream CXOs not be affected? Some big Vs are simply lying with their eyes open and they are so bad.
Friends who know me know that I have not been optimistic about CXO since August last year. Although it has fallen a lot, I still have a evasive attitude. Of course, you can also say that I am afraid of high prices and may make a lot of money on good stocks. Anyway, I don’t make the last copper coin. On the contrary, it has fallen 70%, and I will gradually pay attention to it.
Actually, this is not to say that CXO is not good. The 100% performance growth rate shows that the industry is about to reach the late stage of the boom, and the performance growth rate may drop at any time. Without the sanctions of the United States, CXO will also fall. It is just that the decline is slow and long, and it is as heavy as it is on the back, and it should also fall. The valuation of OEM companies is higher than that of innovative drugs and innovative medical devices, which is definitely unreasonable. It was just that many people were afraid of centralized procurement and did not dare to touch drugs and devices, and they all went to grab CXO.
There is a proverb in the investment industry: active funds passively invest, passive funds actively invest. means that active stock selection depends on the fund manager's own stock selection and timing ability. Passive funds such as industry funds. Fund investors must have investment and research ability and understand industry trends. If they can't see clearly and buy industry funds, the probability of losing money is very high. For example, if they buy China Europe Medical for Gelan's reputation, they cannot blame Gelan for losing money. She is a pharmaceutical industry fund and can only buy medicine. The lower limit of the position is stipulated, and it cannot be reduced just by wanting to.
Existing new energy. leader CATL has fallen below the institutional fixed-increase price of 410 yuan, and institutions have also been cut. Those who used to chase high prices to buy new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and energy storage are probably now half of their bodies have been buried in the soil.
There is a problem for the new energy vehicle sector. Everyone must be clear about it. Due to the economic difficulties this year, relevant parties have vigorously encouraged the consumption of new energy vehicle and provided many preferential policies, which has led to the release of car purchase demand for in the next few years ahead of schedule this year. The original planned penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 2025 was 25%, which has been realized three years ahead of schedule. Everyone should have a clear understanding of the performance of the new energy vehicle sector in the next 1-2 years.
02
Everyone dislikes it, but it is safer
A shares are already close to the lowest point on April 27, but Vanke, Poly and other real estate The prices of leading stocks are quietly rising. Poly is infinitely close to the historical high. The transaction is the expectation of increasing market concentration. The scale of the new real estate market is declining, but a large number of small and medium-sized real estate developers will disappear from the market, and the vacant market share will be occupied by the leaders. In fact, this investment logic was explained before the outbreak of the supply cut-off of unfinished buildings. "From Abe's assassination, looking at the sequelae of Abe's economics, and two enlightenment to our own real estate investment."
Short-term real estate pressure is very high, and the increase in market concentration is by no means a day. The recent rise has exceeded many people's expectations. A-shares are real, institutions are really quick to start, and it is really impossible to do it too late. Of course, there is no need for everyone to chase now. The real estate leader will not keep rising and will rebound later.
Paper Mao Zhongshun Jierou fell 73% at its lowest in April, and its interim report released in August saw its profits drop by 44%, almost halved. Overseas encountered the worst inflation in 40 years. 60% of the company's cost was wood pulp, and wood pulp mainly comes from overseas. In addition, the RMB exchange rate depreciation, the price of wood pulp denominated in RMB is even more expensive. It should be said that everywhere is bad news, but the decline in has been resisted.
Zhongshun Jierou's dilemma is not a problem for the company. The domestic paper boss, the second largest, Hengan International and Vida International all fell by more than 30% during the interim report. Faced with industry difficulties, leaders are so difficult, and small and medium-sized enterprises will definitely be even more difficult, and many of them will have to withdraw from the market. Every time the industry is in trouble, the leader will eventually be the beneficiaries. Zhongshun Jierou, whose performance is so weak, can withstand the pressure of systemic market decline and industry difficulties. In the future, the secondary market will warm up, and the company's performance growth rate will begin to improve next year under a low base. Think about what will happen to its stock price?
Investment, you must avoid the short-term economic situation and overcrowded trading track, and do not rush to buy with others. No matter how good is, it is still expensive, and the risk of falling in the future is huge. In fact, the market has never lacked opportunities. What is lacking is patience and waiting. The stock prices of good companies will not keep rising. Moutai can fall from 2600 to 1500, down 40%. Is there anything better than Moutai? Anyway, I didn't find it. So there is no need to rush to chase high prices. There are really many opportunities in 2018, March and April 2020, and 2022. It’s just that when the opportunity comes, many people have no money, just like now.
For friends who are thinking of investing in the long term, their eyes should be staring at those things that are panic-selled by investors. people take me, and people give me, and I take me. Many principles of investment and life are the same, or investment is part of life.
That’s all today. If you have other things to know about investment and financial management in , you can “send a message” at the bottom of the page to ask a private message to the investment key. If this article is helpful to you, can help me with "reading" + "like", and can also "share" with more friends. The article only records my own feelings and experiences, and does not constitute any buying and selling suggestions. Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
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