In the past week or two, the A-share market has entered a volatile zone. Although the market has fallen for a week, many branches of the new energy theme have maintained a trend of rising against the trend. Among them, the wind power and photovoltaic sectors both bucked the trend and hit new highs this Thursday!
In the middle of the week, Jingyang also shared a piece of news with everyone in the article, that is, a certain securities firm’s trading channel alerted the police. Currently, the automobile, new energy and other sectors have experienced overheating transactions.
Today, the market does not open but . We don’t need to watch the market nervously. Then Jingyang is here to talk to you about an issue that many investors are paying attention to now: Can new energy continue to be speculated? It involves some useful information and important investment strategies, so everyone must read it patiently and make a mark!
First, internal differences among major institutions have begun to increase, and tens of billions of public offerings have reduced positions and left the market!
Judging from the trend of new energy sector , it has accumulated a large increase since the end of April. For investors, there is currently an anxiety and entanglement between being afraid of chasing highs and being afraid of falling short. Some fund managers have also recently stated that the valuation of the new energy sector is on the high side, the track is relatively crowded, and it is difficult to sustain the outstanding market. However, other fund managers believe that from a fundamental point of view, the new energy track is more prosperous and is still a high-quality track with "thick snow and long slopes".
It is not difficult to find that this kind of anxiety and entanglement is not only experienced by ordinary retail investors, but also by professional institutional investors.
In the eyes of many current optimists, whether it is new energy vehicles, new energy or energy supporting equipment, although the static valuation level is indeed not low, overall high growth will be achieved next year. Therefore, the performance of listed companies will maintain rapid growth to repair the current valuation level.
Among them, Liu Wei, manager of China Europe Fund , has a more representative view. He believes that the new energy industry has always been known for its high growth, and high growth will also be accompanied by higher valuation levels. The current valuation level is still at a low level, below the historical center level. Although there has been a rebound, this rebound may be more of a recovery from the decline from January to April. It has not yet reflected the company's performance growth, and it has not given new room for valuation improvement to next year's performance growth expectations. . Therefore, looking forward to the second half of the year, the certainty and growth space of the new energy sector may still be relatively large.
There are also many people who are cautious. Among them, a well-known equity fund manager in Shanghai said that the current market structure is extremely differentiated, with new energy and other industries being more differentiated, which leads to institutions transferring more funds when adjusting positions. When it comes to the new energy sector, the valuation bubble in this sector will get bigger and bigger. If the macroeconomics does not change, we will still stick together in the new energy sector. As of now, the valuation of new energy stocks can hardly be called cheap, so once the group is dispersed, the valuation will drop quickly and the bubble will no longer exist.
Zhu Hongyu, the fund manager of investment fund , also said that photovoltaics and new energy are still very hot, but at this time, he will not make the last wave of money.
Judging from the recently disclosed public fund data, tens of billions of fund managers also chose to reduce their positions in new energy in the second quarter, including four funds managed by Qiu Dongrong under Zhong Geng Fund.
Second, how will the new energy theme develop in the future?
In Jingyang’s view, if we ordinary retail investors want to make the most correct choice, we must first have a general understanding of the subsequent development of the entire theme, and then make targeted plans.
In a recent article, Jingyang talked with everyone about last year’s new energy theme market, trying to judge this year’s trend through last year’s market.
From a technical point of view, last year, new energy themes, led by lithium batteries and photovoltaics, experienced two rounds of hype. The first round was main Shenglang , which lasted from early May to mid-September, and then entered The shock is gathering momentum for about 3 weeks.The second round of lithium batteries and photovoltaics started at the same time in mid-October, but lithium batteries only lasted for one month, while photovoltaics lasted for two months. The market ended in mid-December, and then entered a deep correction for half a year.
It is not difficult to find that the trends of these two sectors are not only highly synchronized, but also have two rounds of main rising waves. The reason why this situation occurs is actually closely related to the position adjustment behavior of the main funds.
　 Perhaps in the eyes of many friends, the main capital is a piece of iron, coming in and out at the same time. But in fact this is not the case. As shown above, different fund managers now have different attitudes towards the new energy sector, so there are differences among the main players. According to Jingyang's "A-share news" fund monitoring, the first round of main rises from May to September last year was the result of the joint push by most of the main funds. In this process, the main funds were all advancing, but There is a time difference. Some of the main players who entered the market first and accumulated huge profits will also leave the market early. When the stage gains of these two sectors are too large, there will be a situation where the main players in the back row are unwilling to chase higher, and the main players in the front row make profits and leave the market. This formed the phased retracement from September to October last year.
But it is obvious that if the whole market ends at this time, the main players in the front row can indeed leave smoothly, and the main players in the middle row may also exit with capital preservation, but those in the back row will be trapped. Therefore, after the retracement reaches a certain stage, the main players in the middle and back rows will take self-protective actions, causing the entire sector to experience a second round of upward movement! The second round of promotion is actually the process of the main players in the middle and back row withdrawing!
According to Jingyang’s observation, in recent years, most of the main hot spots will experience this two-stage rise. In addition to lithium batteries and photovoltaics last year, Yuan Universe, which started to exert force in late October last year, has There was a retracement at the end of November, and the entire market ended in early January this year. Pharmaceuticals, which started making efforts in December last year, began to retreat with the market in mid-January this year. From early February to the end of March, when the market adjusted, it bucked the trend and rose, completing a two-stage rise. Similarly, there are most mainline hotspots such as infrastructure, digital currency , and scarce resources. The difference is that although these themes are all two-stage rises, there are still differences in time periods and amplitudes.
　 Let’s take a look at the recent trend of automobile stocks. We are now in the retracement period between the two main waves, and there are signs of restarting!
Third, how should we retail investors deal with the current new energy sector?
Now that we know the general operating rules of the entire theme, it is actually relatively simple to deal with it.
At present, the new energy and energy supporting themes are still in the first round of main rise, and there is no clear shock trend yet. If you are worried that the retracement period is coming soon, you can appropriately reduce the position of and , but do not need to completely empty it! Because after all, we are not a major institution with such a large market, and each of our retail investors does not have a large amount of funds, so they can completely enter and exit within a day. In this case, we must make full use of our small size and flexible trading advantages!
In addition, in Jingyang’s view, there is another important reason why it is not appropriate to clear out new energy now, that is, there is no new main line coming out of the market. Some potential tracks are still in the left stage, such as the consumer service industry. We all know that driven by the epidemic cooling policy, this theme will have a reversal sooner or later, but now no institutions have been found to enter the market, and we retail investors have Why bother to lurk in advance? After the institution's clear entry signal appears, we retail investors can complete the layout in one day, doesn't it save a lot of time and cost?
Of course, this is just a general strategy. There are actually skills in choosing stocks and .
Let’s take the recent automobile stocks as an example. The first round of main rise lasted from the end of April to the end of June, which lasted for 2 months. After retracing for 3 weeks, there were signs of stabilization on Thursday and Friday. However, judging from the performance of individual stocks, automobiles, the leading branch in the first round of main rising waves, have significantly lagged behind the entire theme in recent days.In the past two days, automotive thermal management and integrated die-casting have been significantly stronger. And according to Jingyang Capital Monitoring, on Friday there was intensive competition for institutional seats in automotive thermal management, and integrated die-casting was also heavily increased. Auto parts had institutional differences in inflows and outflows, but there was no institutional return to the market for complete vehicles.
　 What does this mean? In the two rounds of main rising waves of a main line hot spot, the leading branches and leading stocks will switch! Then we retail investors need to observe, if there is a retracement of new energy, who can lead the rise in the next stage? Of course, one thing should be kept in mind. The second round of promotion is the main shipping period. If you are trapped, you can't hold it!
