China Fund News Reporter Fang Li Intern Reporter Wang Jialin
The second quarterly reports of funds for 2022 that have been disclosed one after another gradually reveal the investment trends of star fund managers.
A few days ago, Zhonggeng and HSBC Jinxin announced the second quarter reports of some of their equity funds. Qiu Dongrong and Chen Bin’s second-quarter position and share exchange situations have surfaced.
Fund Manager found that when the equity market fluctuated in the second quarter, most of the funds managed by Qiu Dongrong and Lu Bin maintained high position operations of more than "90%". Among them, the four funds managed by Qiu Dongrong all increased their positions significantly in Xingfa Group ; the HSBC Jinxin Dynamic Strategy managed by Lu Bin increased their positions in the financial industry. The proportion of the financial industry's net asset value in the fund increased from 10.51% at the end of the first quarter to 15.58% at the end of the second quarter.
Qiu Dongrong and Lu Bin both operate "high positions"
Qiu Dongrong and Lu Bin are both well-known fund managers in the market, and their every move is watched by the market.
In this volatile second quarter, both Qiu Dongrong and Lu Bin maintained high confidence and maintained high positions.
HSBC Jinxin Lu Bin maintained a "high position" to cope with the market in the second quarter. As of the end of the second quarter, the positions of the six funds he managed were all above 90%, with HSBC Jintrust Low Carbon Pioneer having the highest position at 94.32%.
Looking back on the past three years, the proportion of the stock market value of the funds managed by Lu Bin to the fund's net assets has almost always fluctuated within the range of 90% to 95%. Only HSBC Jintrust’s dynamic strategy has a position as low as 77% in the second quarter of 2021.
Similarly, data shows that Qiu Dongrong currently manages 4 funds, including Zhonggeng Small Cap Value, Zhonggeng Value Pilot, Zhonggeng Value Smart and Flexible Allocation, and Zhonggeng Value Quality One-Year Holding. The positions at the end of the second quarter were all "90" %" and above, the market value of its stocks accounted for 94.01%, 91.98%, 93.58% and 92.76% of the fund's net assets respectively.
Judging from historical data, Zhonggeng’s value has been flexible and flexible in the past three years. Except for the positions in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, which were below 75%, the positions in the rest of the time fluctuated between 75% and 95%.
It is worth mentioning that Zhonggeng Value Flexible Allocation Fund is jointly managed by Qiu Dongrong and Wu Chenggen.
Qiu Dongrong wrote in Zhonggeng Value Navigation that due to the asset allocation strategy based on fundamental risks and risk premium , the fund maintained a relatively high equity allocation position during the reporting period, especially actively allocating Hong Kong stocks .
In addition, Zhonggeng Value Pioneer, jointly managed by Chen Tao and Cao Qing, also disclosed its quarterly report. The fund’s positions at the end of the first quarter and the end of the second quarter remained almost unchanged.
HSBC Jinxin Lu Bin added positions in the financial industry
Lu Bin, who holds more than 30 billion in capital, not only maintained high position operations in the second quarter, but also actively adjusted positions and exchanged shares to cope with market fluctuations.
Take the representative HSBC Jinxin Dynamic Strategy among the funds managed by Lu Bin as an example. As of the end of the second quarter, the fund has heavily invested in manufacturing, information transmission, software and information technology services, and financial industries, with holding ratios of 51.37%, 20.55%, 15.58%, and the top five heavy holdings are Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium , CATL , Oriental Fortune , etc.
Compared with the end of the first quarter, the adjustment of the top ten heavyweight stocks of HSBC Jinxin Dynamic Strategy at the end of the second quarter was not significant, and the allocation to the financial industry was significantly strengthened. Among them, Sangfor , China Ping An , CITIC Group, and China Pacific Insurance appeared in front of Among the top ten heavy holdings, Guanghui Energy , Vanke A, Ping An of China and Asymlink were missing from the top ten heavy holdings at the end of the second quarter.
Due to the active rebalancing of positions and share exchanges, HSBC Jinxin Dynamic Strategy's second quarter performance quickly recovered, significantly outperforming the benchmark, and its scale increased rapidly. Second quarter report data shows that among the six funds managed by Lu Bin, only one, HSBC Jintrust Longteng, has slightly decreased in size, and the remaining five funds have expanded in size. The size of HSBC Jintrust Low Carbon Pioneer increased by 1.32 billion to 10.991 billion in the second quarter. billion, exceeding 10 billion; the scale of HSBC Jinxin Dynamic Strategy, which has exceeded 10 billion, also increased slightly in the second quarter, from 10.273 billion at the beginning of the period to 10.343 billion at the end of the period.
Qiu Dongrong added positions to Xingfa Group
Qiu Dongrong’s dynamics in the second quarter were also exposed with the disclosure of the second quarter report.
data shows that the largest company managed by Qiu Dongrong is Zhonggeng Value Navigation. At the end of the second quarter, it heavily invested in China Hongqiao, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Overseas Development , Meituan -W, Luxi Chemical , etc. Compared with the end of the first quarter, the top ten heavy holdings of Zhonggeng Value Leader have not changed much. In the second quarter, Xingfa Group and Kanghua Biotech were newly added, while Gemdale Group, and Liuyao Group dropped out of the top ten heavy holdings. List.
In addition, compared with the end of the first quarter, Zhonggeng’s value allocation is flexible, and the list of the top ten stocks of Zhonggeng’s value and quality has not changed much, showing “three in and three out”; while the top ten stocks of Zhonggeng’s small cap value have not changed much. The changes are more obvious. In the first quarter, only the top four stocks remained on the list of the top ten stocks. Among them, Xingfa Group became the largest stock, with its shareholding accounting for 6.53% of the fund's net asset value.
can see that the four funds managed by Qiu Dongrong simultaneously increased their positions in Xingfa Group in large sums. According to reports, Xingfa Group’s main business is the development, production and sales of phosphorus chemical products and fine chemical products. Since the market rebounded on April 27, Xingfa Group has increased by more than 37%.
Due to its better performance in the first half of this year, Qiu Dongrong's management Zhonggeng Value Navigation ushered in a huge explosion in scale. The scale at the beginning of the second quarter was 7.963 billion yuan, and the scale at the end of the period soared to 15.475 billion yuan, an increase of 94.34%. However, the size of Zhonggeng Small Cap Value and Zhonggeng Value Smart Flexible Allocation Funds has shrunk slightly.
Qiu Dongrong said in the quarterly report that in the second quarter, based on the equity risk premium level, we remain cautiously optimistic and actively look for value stocks with low valuations and limited supply but stable or expanding demand, as well as growth stocks with relatively low valuations but rising prosperity. , obtain excess returns by seizing structural opportunities. The performance of value stocks in Hong Kong stocks was average, but the technology and Internet rebounded slightly. Hong Kong stocks were basically at historically low levels from various valuation dimensions. Based on the systemic opportunities of Hong Kong stocks, strategic allocation continued.
Qiu Dongrong and Lu Bin look at the market outlook
In every quarterly report, there are fund managers who have some "careful words". In the second quarterly report, Qiu Dongrong also used 2,500 words to express his views on the market outlook, which is worth reading by investors.
Qiu Dongrong wrote in the second quarter report of Zhonggeng Value Leader: China’s “steady growth” and global “anti-inflation” are the most important macro backgrounds at present. The second quarter turned from struggle to hope. The domestic economy has gradually improved since the epidemic was under control. Stable growth is the main line of the domestic economy. The measures to deal with the current situation are no weaker than those during the 2020 epidemic. Fiscal policies are proactive, tax cuts and fee reductions are large, and infrastructure automobile consumption policies are exceeding expectations; LPR interest rates have been lowered again, and loosening money means widening credit, boosting real estate demand. Recovery, as the policies take effect, economic momentum is expected to recover, and fundamental risks will be significantly reduced. The pace of Chinese and foreign economies is out of sync, and persistent and higher-than-expected inflation has prompted the Federal Reserve to increase interest rate hikes. The economic cycle and forward-looking data are reflecting the transition from stagflation to recession expectations, and the short-term decline in demand will help ease inflation. However, since the underlying problems have hardly improved, from a longer-term perspective, the inflation issue is still full of uncertainty.
In the second quarter, whether domestic or foreign, there are many and rapid changing factors, the pace of market transactions changes rapidly, and domestic liquidity is abundant. Investors will give their greatest optimism to the boom track supported by policies. The A-share market is structurally overvalued and undervalued. The contradiction has become prominent again, and the valuation level of high-valued stocks represented by large-cap growth stocks has risen to more than 85% of the historical quantile. Now we are still facing the impact of uncertainties such as the epidemic, energy and rising inflation. We will carefully evaluate this structural risk. Based on the level of equity risk premiums, we remain cautiously optimistic and actively look for value stocks with low valuations and limited supply but stable or expanding demand, as well as growth stocks with relatively low valuations but rising prosperity, and obtain excess profits by seizing structural opportunities. income. The performance of value stocks in Hong Kong stocks was average, but the technology and Internet rebounded slightly. Hong Kong stocks were basically at historically low levels from various valuation dimensions. Based on the systemic opportunities of Hong Kong stocks, strategic allocation continued.
In terms of investment ideas for the future market of this fund, we adhere to the concept of low-valuation value investment, and build a cost-effective investment portfolio by selecting stocks with reduced fundamental risks, positive profit growth, and cheap valuations, and strive to obtain sustainable excess. income.
Specifically, the investment direction that this fund focuses on comes from four aspects:
1, value stocks represented by resources and energy in Hong Kong stocks, some Internet stocks and pharmaceutical technology growth stocks. There are three reasons for optimism:
(1) is cheap in valuation. Due to the reality of weak fundamentals and suppressed liquidity, Hong Kong stocks have not rebounded with A shares . Only technology and Internet stocks with relaxed policies have performed well. The overall valuation level of Hong Kong stocks is still at an absolutely low level. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are cheaper than the corresponding A shares, and the corresponding dividend yield levels are higher. Growth stocks represented by the Internet, technology, and medicine have cheap valuations and remain quite attractive, which can well meet the stock selection criteria of our low-valuation value investment strategy.
(2) The operation is stable and the fundamentals of benefit continue to improve. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are mainly leading companies in various industries in the Chinese economy. They are deeply embedded in the Chinese economy, have extremely stable operations and solid profits, and have also maintained a certain degree of growth. For example, leading real estate companies, the valuation of Hong Kong stocks is cheaper. At the same time, it also maintained sustained organic growth. Growth companies in Hong Kong stocks, such as pharmaceuticals, APIs, and consumer products, have much lower valuations than A-shares. Their business models are simpler and better, their businesses are solid, and they have broad prospects.
The Internet companies that attract the most attention among Hong Kong stocks: 1) These companies are involved in all aspects of food, clothing, housing and transportation, are extremely sticky, and face growing core demands. The monetization and liquidity capabilities of these companies will continue to improve; 2) The most policy-sensitive companies The stage has passed. These companies have transitioned from focusing on policy relief to returning to the company's own value and focusing on core business areas. Only with solid business barriers can they be competitive enough to win the future; 3) The current valuation level is at a low level. These companies The company's expansion has slowed down and non-core business capital expenditures have been reduced. The company's profits and cash flow levels are expected to increase, which will help realize the investment value.
(3) policy is expected to improve, liquidity risk is relatively immune. Both China and foreign countries focus on internal policies. Only by promoting external changes can we weaken disputes. The stage of greatest impact of liquidity on Hong Kong stocks has passed. Even in the face of the Fed's interest rate hikes and tightening, Hong Kong stocks will be under extremely low valuation conditions. Relatively immune to marginal convergence of liquidity on a global scale.
2, finance, real estate, etc. among large-cap value stocks. The allocation logic is that the valuations of banks in the financial sector are basically at historically low levels, and they have very pessimistic expectations regarding potential risks. We are optimistic about regional bank stocks that are related to the manufacturing industry chain, serve the real economy, and have unique competitive advantages. Such banks are located in regions with developed economies, good industrial structures, relatively diversified customers, and still have a large regional share. There is room for improvement, so it presents the characteristics of simple and stable business, low fundamental risks and relatively insensitive real estate risk exposure, extremely low valuation but high growth potential.
Real estate market policies have been significantly relaxed, and risks have been completely exposed. Real estate companies are concentrated in leading central enterprises with the advantages of high credit and low financing costs. These companies benefit from the return of demand and changes in homebuyer preferences in the short term, and benefit from the market in the long term. The market share continues to expand. These companies will have better risk resistance, potential growth and earnings quality, and their current valuations are extremely low, with good return potential.
3, energy and resource companies and their downstream production capacity. The logic of the allocation is mainly as follows: (1) The country has entered a stage of steady growth in the second half of the year. The postponement of production, investment and consumption caused by the epidemic will be concentrated in the second half of the year, boosting the economic progress against time, and is expected to significantly increase the demand for energy and resources. ;
(2) Although the demand side has loosened somewhat in the context of the economic cycle and interest rate hikes, energy and resource companies continue to be cautious, and their willingness to spend capital is still seriously insufficient. Insufficient supply elasticity is still a reality, and a relatively tight balance will It is beneficial to the value of stock assets.The impact of grand narratives such as epidemics, wars, and energy has not yet ended, and uncertainty remains high. Once the imbalance between supply and demand returns, energy and resource companies will still be in the most favorable position from a bottom-up perspective, with extremely low valuations and good cash flow. , less capital expenditure, higher dividend yield, and high expected rate of return corresponding to current prices;
(3) China's rich coal resource endowment and government regulation, the unit calorific value of coal has a significant advantage over overseas oil and gas, that is, the cost The confidence level of end advantage is quite high. Moreover, the production capacity of domestic enterprises in related downstream industries has been relatively minimally disrupted, and their comparative advantages in operations are still accumulating. Production capacity has benefited from the recovery of domestic demand and overseas substitution. Therefore, maintain the configuration of companies with more advantages in energy utilization such as electrolytic aluminum and coal chemical industry.
4, a segmented leading company with unique competitive advantages in the broad manufacturing industry. Economic recovery and policy resonance have combined with the manufacturing industry to establish competitive advantages on a global scale. The traditional manufacturing industry has continued to expand its share due to its advantages in production capacity, high quality and price, and the migration and iteration of leading enterprises in the manufacturing industry segment, integrating new materials into the industry. , spare parts, components and other products with technical process barriers, corresponding to the expansion of new demands and new technology applications such as intelligence, electrification, and localization, their value and penetration rate have huge room for improvement, and are expected to further increase profits Capability and quality. Therefore, there is still great potential for discovering cost-effective companies in the broad manufacturing industry. We adhere to three standards, namely demand growth, supply contraction, and segmented industry leaders, such as chemical industry, non-ferrous metal processing, pharmaceutical manufacturing, mechanical processing, light industry, etc., to discover real low-valuation small-cap growth stocks and small-cap value stocks. .
Lu Bin also wrote in the quarterly report of HSBC Jinxin Dynamic Strategy Hybrid Fund that in the context of "economic construction as the center" and "stability as the top priority, and seeking progress while maintaining stability", the entire "macro policy and monetary policy" environment It is more beneficial to A-shares, and policies are continuing to work hard. At the end of 2021, we believe that the main line of market investment in 2022 is "value return" and "high-quality growth."
stands at present, and we are more inclined to believe that "high-quality growth" will become the main investment opportunity in the subsequent market. Under the trend of China's economic structural transformation, industrial upgrading and technological innovation, we have seen more and more high-quality growth industries and companies (new energy, new materials, high-end equipment, medicine, new consumption, TMT technology, etc.), Due to the explosion of industrial demand, increase in global market share, increased volume of new products or import substitution, the overall industry space is large, the company's competitiveness is increasingly strengthened, and it is expected to achieve a rapid compound growth rate in the next few years.
This major trend will not change with the fluctuations of short-term capital markets. Through mid-level industry comparison and bottom-up individual stock research, it has been found that many growth industries and company valuations have become more attractive for investment due to market decline or performance growth. Therefore, we believe that the main line of investment in the subsequent market is "high-quality growth." Relying on the support of the research team, we explore potential stocks through in-depth, forward-looking, proactive and comprehensive fundamental research. We will combine the company's investment research platform and our own investment experience to manage the fund with an investment strategy system based on fundamentals and valuation. We will also continue to work hard to expand our circle of competence.
Editor: Joey
