7/14, Juewei Food announced its semi-annual performance forecast for 2022: it is expected that H1 revenue in 2022 will be 3.2-3.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78-8.14%; net profit attributable to the parent company will be 90 million-110 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.78-8.14%. It fell by 78.08%-82.07%; net profit after deducting non-attributed profits was 150-170 million yuan, down 64.55%-67.82% year-on-year. Broken down, revenue in Q2 was 1.51-1.71 billion yuan, ranging from -7.7% to 4.5% year-on-year; net profit attributable to the parent was 933,000-20.933 million yuan, down 92.1%-99.6% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-attributed profits was 67.622 million yuan to 87.622 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.4%-72.5%.
The epidemic is undoubtedly a major factor affecting the performance of Juewei. Since the first half of the year, domestic epidemics have been recurring, and some of the company's factories have been shut down. Customer traffic in various stores has been under pressure, and same-store pressure has been high. The epidemic has also caused a low slaughter operating rate, so the price of raw materials and ducks has been at a high level. In addition, as a franchise-focused company As an ecological chain company, the expected management of franchisees' survival rate and investment return cycle is the core of Juewei's business; therefore, the company has given more subsidies to franchisees since the outbreak recurred in the second half of last year, and in the anniversary celebration that just passed A certain amount of fees will be invested in recharge activities and other projects; in addition, because the performance in 2021 did not meet the equity incentive target, the equity payment expenses of the second and third phases were accrued in Q2 this year by about 60 million.
Jianzhi Research (public account: Jianzhi Research Pro) believes that Juewei’s sharp intraday rise today is because the market is optimistic about the logic of the reversal of its predicament. With the promotion of normalized testing, the company's offline consumption scenes are expected to recover, driving the same-store growth to resume; as the epidemic situation improves, dealer subsidies are also expected to shrink, and costs are also expected to fall; therefore, regardless of revenue, cost, and expense, There is room for marginal improvement ; in addition, last year, Juewei increased the store opening speed from the past 800-1,200 stores/year to 1,000-1,500 stores/year, improving the store opening speed plan; The company has also recently communicated with the market. The original goal of opening 20,000 stores has been increased to 30,000, and 1,100-1,200 new stores have been opened in H1 2022. How high is the ceiling for store openings? Whether the goal can be achieved or not in the short term cannot be falsified , so it has given the market a certain degree of certainty. imagination.
At present, Juewei is focusing on the "Opening the Sea" plan to franchise small and medium-sized non-staple food stores in sinking markets and the "Sparking Fire" plan to encourage key employees of Juewei to return to their hometowns to open stores. Although the braised food market continues to expand, Jianzhi Research is still cautiously observing Juewei's same-store recovery, store opening space and speed: firstly, since the epidemic, people's consumption power has declined to a certain extent, and short-term recovery is unrealistic; secondly, the growth of braised food is unrealistic The regional nature is still relatively strong, and it takes a certain amount of time to cultivate the mind, and the process of sinking and encrypting is not very easy; in addition, according to feedback from franchisees, the "Sparking Fire" plan that started sporadically last year did not go very smoothly, and key stores may face difficulties. Situations where the franchisee refuses to release the person or has a better option. Although Juewei has proven its excellent capabilities in the past, changes in the macro environment and the company's development stage will make the company's management and operations more difficult.
Of course, in the long run, the market value of Juewei is worth looking forward to. The current valuation is calculated based on the store opening space. In the future, light catering, upstream and downstream industries, and condiments should be able to create new growth curves in the long run. You can wait and see.
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