1, today's real-time account performance and specific operations
1, today's real-time account performance :
CSI 300 Index fell 0.92% today, but today's account performance was pretty good, with an overall increase of 1.82%, mainly because Kingsoft is still strong today, up 6.52%. The other major holdings have also performed well compared to , which fell today's , the performance is also OK.
Currently, the account position is 100%. This year, the overall account is still in a loss state, but I am not particularly worried, because based on my practical experience in the stock market in the past 15 years, the current position will likely gradually turn positive and make a profit over time. The previous various unfavorable factors that exceeded expectations were at most increased some additional time costs.
specific performance, please refer to the combination 1 and combination 2 in my homepage, which are close to the real-time stocks .
2, Today's specific operation:
No operation today. This is the case with medium- and long-term investments. Once you choose a potential company, you will hold it for a long time, or increase your position and buy downward after a sharp decline as planned. There is no need to worry too much about short-term market fluctuations at other times, and there is no need to make frequent decisions and operations. The long-term stable profit of stock investment does not depend on being very hard-working to keep a close eye on the market, and then making frequent decisions and operations. The long-term stable profit depends on the general judgment of industry companies in the next three, five years, or even the next 10 years and the patience of holding potential companies.
3, Recent specific operation ideas:
Recently, I have been saying that this is a very good area for increasing positions in the medium and long term. If there are new idle funds in the medium and long term, I will continue to increase positions on dips. If not, continue to hold existing positions optimistically and do not make any trouble.
Sima Qian "Records of the Grand Historian: Biography of Merchants" tells the way of operating for business: "The precious one is like dirt, and the cheap one is like pearls and jade." And now, for many good companies, it is time to "take like jade". I took action on October 25th, and did what I could. I took some pearls and jades in a small proportion (recorded in the post that day)
2. Overall market views and reasons in the medium and long term:
1, medium and long term views:
1, medium and long term views:
Reference Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, monthly line , quarterly line level - weak
Currently, I am optimistic about the medium and long term, because the overall market valuation is not high at present, and it is at a relatively low level in the past five years. There are also many positive factors and expectations in monetary policy and economic policy. And historical data and experience have repeatedly proved that under active fiscal policies and loose monetary policy , the stock market is often likely to see a wave of rising markets in quarters or years (4-8 quarters).
So the opportunity and space for upward in this position is far greater than the risk of downward. As long as you remain patient, companies with relatively undervalued valuations and outstanding performance will gradually perform well, early or late.
2. The specific reasons for supporting the above views are as follows:
(1) In terms of policy, monetary policy and fiscal policy have introduced many major benefits (industrial support, interest rate cuts, reserve requirement ratio cuts, etc.), for example:
August 22, the basic interest rate of loan LPR was reduced by 15 basis points for 5 years.
September 5, the central bank announced that financial institutions foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio was lowered by 2 percentage points to 6%.
On September 15, many state-owned banks lowered their personal deposit interest rates ranging from 10 to 15 basis points.
On October 20, China Securities Finance Co., Ltd. announced that it would lower the overall transfer financing fee rate by 40 basis points.
On October 21, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges issued an announcement simultaneously in the evening. With the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the scope of stocks for margin financing and securities lending targets will be expanded, and the number of targets will be expanded from 1,600 to 2,200, with a capacity expansion of 38%. This adjustment will be implemented from October 24.
There are high probability that there will be further policy benefits in the future. Under loose monetary policy and active fiscal policy, it will be conducive to the stability and improvement of the overall market valuation in the medium and long term.
(2) In terms of market valuation, the valuation of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 has been retracement for about 2 years, and its current valuation is at the bottom of the past five years. Therefore, the overall market downward risks are relatively limited at present, but the upward space is relatively large (see the figure below).
(3) CSI 300 trends, as can be seen from the quarterly chart, CSI 300 has been adjusted for about 8 quarters, and the adjustment cycle has even exceeded 2008. Referring to the historical adjustment cycle since the establishment of A-share market , the overall adjustment time this time is sufficient, laying a solid foundation for the big market in the next 1 to 2 years (see the figure below).
(4) In terms of industries and companies, from the medium and long term, many relatively undervalued and expected to be positive can be found. They already have very medium- and long-term participation value. Combined with the overall valuation and position of the market, the opportunity is far greater than the risk.
Note: only makes medium- and long-term investments, and generally choose industries and companies that are likely to develop rapidly in the next 3-5 years. The prices have been fully adjusted and sorted out, and the valuation is at a relatively low historical level, and it is relatively undervalued after estimation based on expected performance. Then, combined with the technical analysis of the month and the season as the time scale, we can judge the appropriate approximate time of participation. During specific operations, you will generally buy in batches. According to past years of experience, the probability of exceeding 50% after buying will generally continue to decline. Some of the declines are still very large. At this time, you will choose to gradually increase your position and buy downward, because you have already prepared for this situation before buying. After deciding and buying, the bottom position will generally not be less than one year unless it rises sharply in the short term, the valuation reaches a historical high and relative to the expected performance has been overdrawn for many years, or the company has a major long-term crisis.
or above are medium and long-term judgments based on the month and season as the time scale. If you focus on short-term trading, please ignore all the above views to avoid misunderstandings. Since short-term market fluctuations cannot be predicted, the article mentions that the company does not make recommendations, but is for communication reference only, as well as a record and verification of its own investment history.
If you have different opinions, please feel free to discuss in the comment area.
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