The banking sector has fallen for two consecutive days, falling nearly 2% in early trading. As of press time, the decline narrowed to 1.38%. China Merchants Bank , Ping An Bank , Postal Savings Bank and other stocks were among the top losers.
html On July 14, the banking sector fell for two consecutive days, falling nearly 2% in early trading. As of press time, the decline narrowed to 1.38%. China Merchants Bank, Ping An Bank, Postal Savings Bank and other stocks were among the top losers.
The controversy over the suspension of loans for unfinished properties has been fermenting
Recently, some owners in Xi'an, Changsha, Wuhan, Zhengzhou and other cities have taken the initiative to suspend loans due to the unfinished housing they purchased, and have issued loan suspension notices to banks. Among the reasons given in the loan suspension notice, the main reasons are insufficient bank supervision, illegal loan issuance, and non-repayment of loans without resuming work.
At present, owners of unfinished buildings in many places across the country have jointly launched a statement calling for a forced suspension of loan repayments until related projects are fully resumed. The cities involved include Zhengzhou, Shangqiu, Xinxiang, Nanyang, Zhoukou, and Cities in Shanxi, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Hunan, Hubei, Guangxi, Shaanxi and other provinces.
Many listed banks responded
In response to the above incident, many listed banks quickly issued announcements on the 14th in response.
Among them, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Industrial Bank responded that they had recently launched a rapid investigation into the properties involved in the "loan suspension incident" news spread online. At present, the scale of business involving the risk of "Guaranteed Delivery of Buildings" is small, and the overall risk is controllable.
What is the market outlook for bank stocks?
CITIC Securities pointed out that sales weakened again in July, indicating that the market recovery is not yet stable and credit risks are far from being resolved. It also illustrates the need for policies to step up efforts and intervene in the market. There is still significant room for mortgage interest rates to fall, and there is still considerable room for city-specific policy implementation. The intertwining of delivery issues, credit issues, investment issues, and land acquisition issues also means that there is a willingness to increase policies. More direct support for companies with liquidity difficulties; further city-specific policies to lower mortgage loan interest rates and down payment ratios; resolve unfinished buildings and ensure delivery. These are the possible policy options that can best restore market confidence at this stage.
So, is there still investment value in the banking sector now? Below, take Agricultural Bank of China as an example for analysis:
1, high value and low risk
Agricultural Bank of China risk value matrix diagram
Data source Moxiang APP
As can be seen from Moxiang APP, Agricultural Bank of China is in a green area with high value and low risk. Through big data calculations and comprehensive consideration of the company's profitability, growth capabilities, debt risks, etc., it is concluded that the company can better balance risk and investment value. It belongs to the high-value and low-risk type and deserves investors' attention.
2, high profit margin
Agricultural Bank of China net interest rate trend chart
Data source Moxiang APP
2022 first quarter report ROE2.86%, more than 75% of companies, industry ranking 3/6; the average ROE in the past 10 years is 15.12%, the highest in 2013 20.88%, the lowest in 2020 is 10.40%. The profit rate in the first quarter of 2022 is 34.30%, more than 94% of companies, ranking 4/6 in the industry; the average profit rate in the past 10 years is 34.51%, with the highest in 2016 being 36.37%, and the lowest in 2020 being 32.89%.
3, strong growth ability
Agricultural Bank of China’s operating income trend chart
Data source Moxiang APP
The total operating income of the first quarter of 2022 was 205.949 billion, exceeding 99% of the companies, ranking 3/6 in the industry; the average operating income growth rate in the past 10 years is 6.79% , the highest growth rate was 12.59% in 2014, and the lowest growth rate was -5.62% in 2016, showing a downward trend. The net profit reported in the first quarter of 2022 was 70.750 billion, more than 99% of the companies, ranking 3/6 in the industry; the average net profit growth rate in the past 10 years was 1.17%, the highest growth rate in 2021 was 11.70%, and the lowest growth rate in 2020 was 0.00%. Upward trend.
summary: Looking forward to the future, it is expected that the risk exposure and disposal work of small and medium-sized banks will continue to advance in an orderly manner. At the same time, corporate governance, regulatory capabilities, and system construction will also be upgraded accordingly, which will be conducive to the steady clearing and increase of existing risks. Effective risk prevention. As far as Agricultural Bank of China is concerned, its investment value is still good.
(Disclaimer: The above information is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.Investors operate accordingly at their own risk)
