Today, the trend of A shares is quite weak. Although it opened higher in the early trading, there are signs that it will firmly hold on to 3400 points. However, I did not expect that the selling pressure from above increased, and the market began to loosen. Not only did it not It was able to stabilize the 3400-point position, but continued selling occurred. Fortunately, received support from bulls in late trading and finally held the 3400-point position. Most of the stocks in the two cities fell, with 1,239 stocks rising and 3,387 stocks falling. Analysis of the reasons is related to these four points:
1. The market atmosphere has subsided, and short-term adjustments are coming as scheduled. Looking at the historical trend of A-shares, even if it is as strong as the 2007 bull market and the 2015 "leveraged bull", the market interpretation does not rise every day, showing an overall upward trend, but it is a trend interspersed with rises and falls. The higher the position, the more adjustment. The amplitude is also larger. Since A shares reached 2863 points, although there have been adjustments during the period, they have been short-lived in terms of time and magnitude. From a regular perspective, as the position of A-shares rises, the probability of short-term adjustment is also higher. Today's decline in A-shares is actually not unexpected, and the adjustment and decline can be regarded as expected.
2. The European Central Bank is once again hawkish. There may be more interest rate hikes after September, which will affect the sentiment of A shares. A member of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank and the president of the Bank of Slovenia said that the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on prices is more obvious than the impact on GDP. It is expected that after raising interest rates in September this year, the ECB may further raise interest rates in the fourth quarter. . Affected by this news, euro zone government bond yields generally rose. The European Central Bank previously revealed after the June monetary policy meeting that it plans to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in July, suggesting that there may be a more substantial interest rate increase in September, while Lagarde strengthened after the meeting that it will raise interest rates aggressively in September. possibility of interest. The European Central Bank once again acted hawkishly, and the signal of raising interest rates disturbed the status of global capital.
3, The central bank’s investment has dropped sharply, and expectations are biased towards the negative. The central bank conducted a 3 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today. Because 110 billion reverse repurchases expired today, a net withdrawal of 107 billion was achieved that day. This is the second consecutive day that the central bank has carried out a 3 billion seven-day reverse repurchase operation. Yesterday, 100 billion reverse repurchases expired, with a net withdrawal of 97 billion, and a total net withdrawal of 204 billion in the two days. According to market analysis, the central bank's open market operation of only 3 billion yuan is a very clear negative signal, causing bulls to have a bearish guidance on currency expectations.
4. The technical side has turned bearish, and the technical faction remains cautious. The technical aspects of the three major stock indexes have shown obvious signs of bearishness. On the one hand, the red column of the daily level MACD indicator is gradually approaching the zero axis, and there are signs of a green column, symbolizing short-term technical shortcomings; on the other hand, the three major stock indexes are short-term. The 15-day moving average of the major stock index has begun to trend flat, and there are signs of going below the 10-day moving average, which is also a signal of bearish technology. The technical faction began to be cautious, and the market capital gradually loosened in the short term.
5. The rebound in late trading was mostly caused by the counterattack of bulls in the market. From a disk perspective, the reason why the stock index rebounded in late trading is that on the one hand, the stock index hit the 10-day moving average and received support at this position; on the other hand, it was driven by hot sectors, such as new energy, pork and other sectors that suddenly rose, which will The market atmosphere is heating up again.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.04%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.41%, the GEM Index fell 0.34%, and the turnover in the two cities was 1.181 billion. In terms of industry sectors, 17 rose and 39 fell today. In terms of concept sectors, 54 rose and 164 fell. Concepts such as coal, phosphorus chemicals, PVDF concepts, fertilizers, and fluorine chemicals rose, while concepts such as tire pressure monitoring, data security, PCB concepts, cultivated diamonds, and cloud games fell. In the forefront. In terms of northbound funds, the net outflow for the whole day was 1.348 billion, the outflow of and Shanghai Stock Connect was 379 million, and the outflow of Shenzhen Stock Connect was 969 million.
The three major stock indexes had a huge shock during the session. The trading volume of the two cities was significantly higher than that of the previous trading day. Most of the stocks in the two cities fell. This shows that the atmosphere of A-shares has begun to loosen, which is obviously different from the previous strong rise. Today, A-shares led The volume fluctuates, indicating that short selling is better, and there is concentrated profit-taking behavior in the short term. From a short-term perspective, this is not a good phenomenon. A-shares may fluctuate further, or even undergo significant short-term adjustments.
As for whether A-shares will plummet tomorrow and how they will go, from an objective perspective, it is not surprising that A-shares are going out of shock today. Regardless of the stage of increase or the perspective of technical trends, with the position of A-shares With the rise, the probability of stage adjustment is increasing. On the contrary, it is normal for A-shares to build a platform at this position, fluctuate, or adjust downward. The day after tomorrow, the U.S. Federal Reserve will announce the June monetary policy minutes, which will also affect short-term fluctuations. If a more aggressive interest rate hike signal is released, it will be negative for the capital market, and on the contrary, it will be positive for the capital market.
The short-term rise and fall are inherently unpredictable, just like the twists and turns of A-shares today, who could have imagined it. As far as ordinary investors are concerned, instead of gambling in short-term risks, it is better to be honest with medium and long-term value.
This article does not contain any recommendations, and the stocks discussed do not constitute any recommendations. The stock market is risky, so investment needs to be cautious.
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