Last night, aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels. As of July 4, the main contract price of Shanghai aluminum was 19,170 yuan per ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton. The aluminum price of on the London Metal Exchange was US$2,468.5 per ton, an increase of US$24.5 or 1% from the previous month.
On the macro level: At present, global assets continue to decline, and the industry is worried about the decline of foreign economies: the "avalanche" international financial market may be difficult to reverse. Recently, overseas stock markets, stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and daily necessities have experienced "four kills", and European and American stock markets generally Under pressure, except for energy and some agricultural products, other commodities have fallen sharply, and even the always strong international gold has experienced a correction.
As for why such an abnormality occurred, many senior experts in the industry pointed out that the sharp decline in major categories of assets, including daily necessities and other assets, was mainly due to the decline in macro risk appetite and poor supply and demand relations, especially the European and American central banks. The recent forced increase in interest rates has triggered an economic recession, as well as competition between countries and geopolitical dilemmas. Market risk appetite and liquidity have further shrunk, resulting in the impact of risky assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. The market may face greater volatility in the second half of the year. risk.
Previously, U.S. ISM data showed that U.S. ISM manufacturing hit a two-year low in June as new orders fell into contraction. Inventory indicators are close to new highs since 2010. Supplier delivery and order backlog indices fell, indicating that supply chain and capacity constraints appear to have eased. The ISM data provides more evidence of falling demand for U.S. products.
In terms of fundamentals: In June, the loss rate of China's electrolytic aluminum industry reached 10.5%: Antaike estimates that the comprehensive cost (including tax) of China's electrolytic aluminum will reach 18,266 yuan/ton in June 2022, which is 18,266 yuan/ton compared with the previous year. During the same period, it increased by 270 yuan/ton or 1.5%; due to concerns about the simultaneous increase in interest rates in several major economies such as the United States, commodity prices and aluminum prices have plummeted, causing the aluminum industry's losses to continue to expand.
Based on the average price of Shanghai aluminum in June of 19,950 yuan/ton, the average profit for that month was 1,684 yuan/ton, a decrease of 760 yuan/ton from May, and a decrease of approximately 4,000 yuan/ton from the highest profit point during the year. Antaike Company stated that China's total electrolytic aluminum production in June was 3.365 million tons, of which the loss rate was 10.5%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points from the previous month.
’s opinion: In the short term, there is no clear directional guidance for aluminum prices, but there is support at 18800. There may be a slight rebound today, lacking the driver of a big rise or fall. In the short term, it may fluctuate between 19000-19500. Waiting The impact of an upturn in the domestic economy or a recession abroad. focuses on today's inventory data.
Yangtze Nonferrous Today’s Aluminum Price
A00 Aluminum : 19170 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton
Price range: 19190-19150
Yangtze Nonferrous
Zhongyuan Nonferrous Today’s Aluminum Price
A00 Aluminum: Average Price 19,170 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton
Zhongyuan Nonferrous
Guangdong Nanchu today’s aluminum price
A00 aluminum: 19160 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan/ton
price range: 19190-19130
Guangdong Nanchu
Shanghai spot today’s aluminum price
A00 aluminum: 19,170 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan / ton
price range: 19190-19150
Shanghai spot
LME Lun aluminum today’s aluminum price
LME electronic trading closing price: 2468.5 yuan/ton, up 24.5 yuan/ton
price range: 2475-2380
LMELunAl
