is going to study today is the track with the most imagination and room for growth in the next few years, new energy vehicles + semiconductors = automotive chips.
During this period, there were endless news about semiconductor orders being cut and overseas MCU prices plummeting, which frightened domestic semiconductor investors.
In fact, it is not necessary. The investment logic of domestic semiconductors is still very different from that of foreign countries.
At present, the biggest logic of domestic semiconductors is in many subdivided chip fields. The market share of foreign giants is still 70-80%, there is still a lot of room for substitution by domestic manufacturers .
Furthermore, order cuts and price cuts are mainly linked to consumer electronics (mobile phones, computers) and other related chips, while automotive chips are a purely incremental market, and the increase represents a Davis double click on performance and valuation.
Investment logic
1. Investment logic for automotive chips:
Volume and price rise : Under the industrial trend of electrification and intelligence, there is huge room for incremental growth in automotive chips.
Volume increase: The semiconductor content of electric vehicles is twice that of fuel vehicles, and the semiconductor content of smart cars is 8-10 times.
The world will need approximately 43.9 billion automotive chips in 2020, growing to 128.5 billion in 2035.
Price increase: The global automotive chip value in 2020 is US$33.9 billion, while it is expected to be US$89.3 billion in 2035.
The global automotive semiconductor market will be approximately US$50.5 billion in 2021. It is expected that the total automotive semiconductor market will be close to US$100 billion in 2027, with the growth rate remaining above 30% from 2022 to 2027.
China’s automotive semiconductor market is rising steadily, reaching approximately RMB 100 billion in 2020.
In short, automotive chips will be a high-prosperity track in the next 10 years. Both volume and price will rise. The track of hundreds of billions will definitely give birth to super big bull stocks that are 10 times or even dozens of times.
Domestic brands in new energy vehicles have emerged, but the localization rate of automotive chips is less than 10%. This is a very dangerous thing.
Supporting domestic automotive chip manufacturers is a top priority. This is not only in line with national strategy, but also the best choice under anti-globalization.
is a deterministic super track. The remaining problem is how to select high-quality companies with core competitiveness.
2. The core target of automotive chips:
At present, automotive semiconductors can be divided into main control chips , power semiconductors, analog chips, memory chips and sensors.
Unlike the current consumer electronics order cuts and MCU price cuts, automotive chips are generally in short supply.
This is mainly due to the replenishment of automobile demand after the epidemic, the demand for new energy vehicles continues to exceed expectations, and the continuous advancement of automobile intelligence.
At present, the most scarce automotive chips are power semiconductors, main control chips and signal chips.
Let’s take a look at the specific domestic production rate, technology gap, shortage level and the layout of domestic manufacturers. Looking at the
segmented fields, our autonomy rate in control chips is less than 1%, sensors are 4%, power semiconductors are 8%, communications are 3%, and memories are 8%. There is huge space for localization. With the technological advancement of domestic manufacturers Promote and introduce, and accelerate the localization process.
Technically speaking, in the field of control: MCU and other general-purpose chips are highly monopolized, and the top three market share of is about 70% of .
sensor: In the field of body sensing, foreign companies are highly monopolized. The top three market share of and exceeds 70%, and the domestic foundation is insufficient.
Power semiconductor: IGBT/MOSFET The field is quite different from that of foreign countries. China is better at power discrete devices and modules, and the field of compound semiconductors is being laid out in China.
memory: Memory belongs to the automotive semiconductor incremental market, which is mainly monopolized by Micron , Samsung , etc. Domestic automotive SRAM, base-type DRAM and other links have a foundation.
automotive chips are currently firmly controlled by overseas giants, and domestic manufacturers are making breakthroughs. For chip manufacturers with real technical strength and innovation capabilities, the opportunities are great.
Judging from the shortage level, power semiconductors are in relatively short supply, and the domestic substitution process is also the fastest. The leading companies are no longer inferior to international giants in technology.
Domestic manufacturers continue to make technological breakthroughs and are currently in the introduction stage. can focus on technologically leading companies such as Star Semiconductor, Times Electric and Silan Micro .
main control chip automotive-grade MCU is currently in short supply, and 32-bit MCUs have gradually replaced 8-bit and 16-bit MCUs and become the mainstream technology. At present, the domestic production rate of automotive grade MCU is only 5%, and there is huge room for domestic substitution. On the
analog chip, European and American manufacturers are leading in the field of power management chip . The competitive landscape of domestic enterprises is relatively fragmented, and there is broad room for domestic substitution of automotive products.
Texas Instruments , Infineon and STMicroelectronics have a market share of more than 80%. The top ten domestic power management chip listed companies have a domestic market share of only 6.83%.
Currently, Shengbang Co., Ltd. is the leader in the automotive field. The product performance has reached the international level and has been produced in small batches.
The image sensor (CIS) in the sensor is the core of automobile intelligence. The number of automotive image sensors will increase from the traditional 2 to more than ten.
As the pixel requirements of more complex application scenarios increase, the value of a single automotive image sensor will also increase.
The automotive market will be the fastest growing image sensor application market, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 29.7% by 2023.
The two giants in this area, ON Semiconductor (45%) and OmniVision Technology (29%), have a market share of over 74%. The new products of domestic manufacturer Weir Co., Ltd. have been introduced into the automotive market.
The global automotive memory chip market will be approximately US$5.2 billion in 2022, and the domestic automotive memory chip market has great growth potential. The main storage applications in the current automotive market include DRAM and NAND.
Micron Technology's market share is nearly half, and its position is stable and leading in technology. Domestic storage leader Beijing Ingenic DRAM has the second largest market share, followed closely by Samsung, Nanya, and Winbond.
Overall summary: In the field of automotive chips, several international giants have basically monopolized 70% to 80% of the market share. However, domestic manufacturers are actively breaking through in various subdivisions, and have made breakthroughs in technology and introduction in some areas. There is huge space for domestic production.
The leading names in related fields:
MCU: GigaDevice , Zhongying Electronics , Chipsea Technology , Ninestar .
Power semiconductor : Star Semiconductor , Shilan Micro , Times Electric, China Resources Microelectronics
Analog chip: Shengbang Co., Ltd., Serip
Sensor: Weir Co., Ltd.
Memory chip: Beijing Junzheng, GigaDevice
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