The epidemic situation in Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen has been well controlled this weekend, and there are no new cases in society. Even if positive cases appear in some places in other provinces and cities, the impact will be limited and will not affect the trend of opening up. However, there are still bad factors in the stock market news. The index has rebounded to a relatively high level. All kinds of bad news and ghost stories have come out. Some are true and some are false. Take a look at what they are:
01
Industry insiders: The National Development and Reform Commission will make an appointment next week Talking about large-scale pig enterprises and slaughterhouses asking not to hoard and drive up prices
The reporter learned from a large pig enterprise and industry insiders that the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice to conduct a seminar on July 4 in order to stabilize production and supply in the pig market. , inviting China Animal Husbandry Association , Meat Association, Muyuan , Wen's , New Hope , Zhengbang , Tianbang, Dabeinong, COFCO , Shuanghui , Yurun , Jinluo, Beijing Ershang and other units and companies attended the meeting. According to relevant sources, this meeting will analyze the recent supply, demand and price situation in the live pig market, remind relevant companies to maintain a normal rhythm of slaughtering, avoid blindly pressing the market, put forward requirements not to hoard or drive up prices, and study relevant measures to maintain the smooth operation of the live pig market, etc. .
Pork prices have rebounded sharply in the past two months, rising from 12 yuan/kg to 20 yuan/kg. It soon attracted the attention of the National Development and Reform Commission. The price of pork cannot rise anymore, because the main reason why our CPI data is not high is that the price of pork is low and the people can eat cheap meat. Gasoline prices will not go down in the short term. If pork prices rise again and inflation data rises, the central bank's monetary policy will inevitably be affected, and they will not dare to let go.
Moreover, the pork price of 20 yuan/KG has exceeded the break-even line of most breeding companies. Muyuan’s cost is about 15 yuan, Wen’s is 16-17 yuan, and New Hope is 16-18 yuan. At a price of 20 yuan, breeding companies have begun to make profits. If they want to make more, people will have to pay more. For the common people to be able to buy cheap meat, and for the stock market to continue to rebound, suppress the profits of pig raising companies, and make millions of families happy!
02
,292 new aircraft, 249.3 billion yuan! Three major air drop orders! Is there a sign of recovery for the civil aviation industry?
On the evening of July 1, Air China , China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines collectively announced the purchase of aircraft. Among them, Air China and China Southern Airlines each purchased 96 Airbus A320NEO series aircraft, with an order value of approximately RMB 81.8 billion each; China Eastern Airlines plans to purchase 100 A320NEO series aircraft, with a total price of approximately RMB 85.778 billion.
html Since June, with the resumption of work and production, policies related to transportation and travel that are beneficial to the civil aviation industry have been introduced one by one. The national level has also recently adjusted and optimized epidemic prevention policies to take into account scientific epidemic prevention and production and life. Airlines have also begun recruiting staff to prepare for the industry's recovery. Some friends of
may wonder, isn’t the domestic C919 released? Why buy foreign aircraft? Because the initial production capacity of the C919 was very small, only a few dozen in the first year, which could not meet the demand for domestic orders, let alone foreign buyers. You should buy what others have when you should. Doing business is about exchanging what you need and achieving mutual benefit and win-win.
We placed a big order with Airbus, Boeing is not happy, there is nothing we can do, who makes your beautiful country suppress and sanction us every day? No one is so mean that even after being scolded and beaten, he still gives money. In addition, we have so much U.S. dollars in foreign exchange, we need to spend it quickly, otherwise we will suffer a big loss when the relationship breaks down and become a pile of waste paper. Now that the U.S. dollar is more valuable, it is best to exchange it for physical goods as soon as possible.
03
BYD : New energy vehicle sales in June were 134,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 224% and a month-on-month increase of 16.6%.
BYD announced that new energy vehicle sales in June were 134,036 units, 41,366 units in the same period last year, and May sales were 114,943 units; this year’s cumulative sales Sales volume was 641,350 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 314.90%. The company's total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries in June 2022 is approximately 6.859GWh, and the total installed capacity in 2022 is approximately 34.042GWh.
On Friday night, Wei Xiaoli and Xiaokang etc. have announced the June car sales data, which are very good-looking. Because data are released every month, and they are all growing, everyone has become a little numb to these benefits. Moreover, the stock price of new energy vehicles has rebounded to a high level. After the heavy volume decline on Wednesday, the stock price is still fluctuating and falling.
Take a look at BYD. The correction in the past two days is the first adjustment in this rising market. It is mainly due to profit-making selling by many parties. The adjustment is for better growth. The logic of being optimistic about BYD in the long term remains unchanged.
04
Ganfeng Lithium Industry : The China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to file a case against the company
On July 3, Ganfeng Lithium Industry announced that on January 24, 2022, the China Securities Regulatory Commission was suspected of insider trading in the secondary market of a listed company's stock A shares decided to file a case against the company. This matter will not have an impact on the company's normal production and operation activities.
Ganfeng Lithium suddenly suffered bad news and was investigated. This is probably the biggest surprise this weekend. Seeing that the CSRC filed the case on January 24 this year, but only informed Ganfeng Lithium on July 1, did it mean that it took five months to collect evidence? The case was filed internally but not made public. Was it because they were afraid of destroying the evidence? It is not yet known which listed company
is involved in insider trading. There will definitely be updated reports later, and the stock prices of both companies will be directly affected. Although Ganfeng says it will have no impact on production and operations, will investors believe it? I have a mine at home, with a ton of lithium carbonate costing more than RMB 400,000. Last year, my net profit was 5.2 billion, and in the first quarter of this year, it was 3.5 billion. It's not enough for the company to make so much money, but it has to resort to crooked ways. Is this crazy?
Ganfeng will definitely open lower tomorrow. As for how the market outlook will go, there is still great uncertainty, and it is also negative for the lithium mine as a whole. If shareholders who hold Ganfeng Lithium lose money as a result, they can collect evidence, sue collectively, and ask the listed company to compensate.
What I saw this weekend was all the bad news for new energy. There are rumors that photovoltaic module production will be reduced in July, and ternary batteries may be banned for energy storage batteries. Coupled with TSMC customers cutting orders, track stocks will inevitably fall back in the short term next week. There is no problem with the long-term logic. The pullback is also for a better rise and a healthier future. Next week, you can pay more attention to the concept of post-epidemic recovery. Funds will be withdrawn from high-level track stocks, and they will not leave the market easily. Switch high and low, and pay attention to changes in trading volume. As long as the trillion level is maintained, the market will not lack opportunities to make money.
Regarding the market outlook , this week’s index highs stagfated and fluctuated, causing a certain money-losing effect, especially the monster stock in the track stocks, which continued to fall to the limit . This bad phenomenon will make people afraid of high funds and extend their emotions. Blade has been emphasizing recently that the gap will definitely be filled. The gap of GEM will be filled next Monday, and the two gaps below Shanghai Composite Index will gradually be filled.
Track stocks are promising in the long term but need to be adjusted in the short term. The extent of the adjustment is difficult to guess. Avoid track stocks for the time being, especially automobiles and photovoltaics . It has become increasingly difficult to make money in the near future. For example, both in the lithium battery sector, upstream lithium mines have surged, but downstream lithium battery manufacturers such as Xinwangda have plummeted. In the photovoltaic sector, upstream silicon materials are still rising, but downstream components such as Trina Solar have plummeted.
Even if the performance of track stocks is very good and the logic is very rigid, it is not suitable to game the mid-term report market anymore, because these deterministic factors represent the past and are the main logic of the speculation in the past two months. The good news can only be seen as a reality, and is not suitable for the logic of speculation in the third quarter. To speculate on future expectations, we should pay more attention to photovoltaic production scheduling and automobile sales.
In a word: For the sectors that have surged in the past two months, don’t expect another surge in the short term. Wait patiently for a correction before planning, and pay attention to those track stocks that are more resistant to falling, which may be the main line of the next wave. If you want to make money in the short term, you can look for other low-priced consumer goods, medicine and medical care.
