(Sunday, July 3, 2022) Recently, real estate stocks have experienced upward fluctuations for a long time.
6 At the close of trading on June 29, the three major A-share indexes fell across the board. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3361.52 points, down 1.4%; the Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index fell 2.2% to close at 12696.5 points. In contrast, the real estate development sector bucked the trend and rose by 1.37%.
The next day, real estate stocks still maintained their upward trend and soared higher at the opening, bringing a perfect end to the first half of 2022.
Among them, Binjiang Group closed at 8.65 yuan, up 6.27%, leading the rise in domestic real estate stocks ; secondly, Vanke A closed at 20.50 yuan, up 4.43%, while Gemdale , China Merchants, etc. all recorded sales of over 3%. With the increase, Poly, Joy City, New City also surged higher.
Real estate stocks bucked the trend and strengthened. What are the reasons?
First, industry opinion leaders have spoken out and sent a positive signal to the capital market.
According to Guanguan New Media, a few days ago, Vanke held the 2021 Annual Shareholders Meeting. Yu Liang, chairman of the board of directors, said, "In the short term, the market has bottomed out. It is not a bottom rebound, but a slow and moderate rebound." Recovery process. "
is known as the "whistleblower" of the real estate industry. The words and deeds of Vanke and Yu Liang can always affect people's judgment of the industry.
For example, the sentence "survive" in 2018 alerted many companies that were running blindly and aggressively expanding; subsequently, the "management dividend era" in 2020 and the "black iron era" in 2022... all became the focus of the real estate industry. hot word.
In fact, in the new media era, everyone has a microphone. This situation has caused the network environment to form a noisy public opinion field. Since opinion leaders have established a stable chain of transmission and reception with the audience, their speeches are more likely to be listened to. and understanding.
Because of this, every time Vanke and Yu Liang speak, they always make the headlines and guide public opinion.
However, compared with the pessimistic views of previous years, this timeās judgment of ābottoming outā has obviously given the capital market a shot in the arm.
In his opinion: "This past year has not been easy for many industries. Real estate is not the most difficult, and there is no reason to lie flat. What's more, real estate is still a trillion-dollar market and a millennium industry. It is often done. , Always do something new. "
Second, opinion leaders may contribute to short-term fluctuations in the capital market, but what really supports the long-term strength of the industry is actually policy relaxation and market recovery.
According to data from Centaline Real Estate, in the first half of 2022, various regions have introduced more than 460 policies to loosen restrictions on the property market, covering more than 200 cities, setting a new historical record.
The current policies introduced by various regions are mainly to stimulate consumption, including the cancellation of purchase restrictions, reduction of interest rates, reduction of down payment ratio, etc. In addition, recently, many regions, including Henan and Jiangsu, have adopted measures such as exchanging crops for houses. Garlic, wheat, watermelon, and peaches are used as gimmicks to "exchange houses" for fancy marketing to stimulate consumption.
With the continued support of policies to stabilize the property market and diversified marketing policies, property market sales have recovered. From the data point of view, this is reflected in continued month-on-month growth and reduced year-on-year decline.
According to the "Sales Performance of Real Estate Enterprises from January to June 2022" released by the Viewpoint Index, in June, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total equity sales of 561.1 billion yuan, an increase of 43.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 46.8%.
The monthly sales of leading real estate companies have also recovered collectively. Among them, Country Garden has a single-month sales of 34.28 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 19.4%, while China Merchants Shekou has a single-month sales of 24.08 billion yuan, a month-on-month increase of 143.2%. China Jinmao , Greentown China , Gemdale Groupās sales increased by more than 100% month-on-month.
html From November to June, the top 100 real estate companies achieved a total equity sales of 2.4194 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.7%, and the decline was 1.5 percentage points narrower than that from January to May.In response, Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in June, commercial housing sales in 30 large and medium-sized cities continued the month-on-month improvement trend in May, and the effects of policy relaxation are gradually emerging.
CICC also agrees with the above view. The bank believes that "the sales volume and price performance of new and second-hand houses have begun to bottom out and rebound since the end of May. In the second half of this year, various fundamental indicators will gradually enter the recovery channel, and the economy will rebound." Extended to 2023. "
Winter is over and spring has arrived. At present, the national property market as a whole is releasing signals of recovery; what will be the policy trends in various regions next? When will the property market turn point come? Can real estate stocks continue to be strong? What unique insights do āreal estate tycoonsā have?
From August 8th to August 11th this year, the Viewpoint Agency will continue to hold the 2022 Boao Real Estate Forum in Hainan. This is a "roasting on the stove" forum. I believe you will hear more sonorous collisions of ideas and concepts. echo.
