In June 2022, the butanyl octanol market in our country showed a sharp decline after a shock. In the first ten days of June, the market conditions were volatile. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the domestic butanyl octanol market fell sharply, and the decline in octanol was greater than n-butanol. , the price difference between n-butanol and octanol products has narrowed. Compared with the prices at the beginning of the month, the price of n-butanol dropped by 1,900-2,000 yuan/ton, the price of octanol decreased by 3,500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between n-butanol and octanol shortened to 700 yuan/ton. Looking at the fundamentals in July, the detailed analysis is as follows.
Butanyl octanol
In terms of raw materials: In July, world crude oil may continue to fluctuate at a high level, propylene The most important process route cost pressure remains unchanged, and the cost support is good. From the supply side, the most important thing is the restart and commissioning of equipment. Some PDH and ground refining units that have been undergoing early maintenance are expected to restart. There is no clear equipment maintenance plan yet. At the same time, some new units in Shandong are expected to be put into production, and the supply continues to rise. . From the demand side, the most important downstream powder materials of propylene, acrylonitrile , etc. are not in good profitability. At the same time, the markets of propylene oxide and butyl octanol continue to operate weakly, and the cost burden is also rising, and the certain level is also The conditions for propylene have been dragged down, and downstream purchases are mainly based on rigid needs. The propylene market is expected to fluctuate and run weakly in July.
Demand side: In June 2022, our country's butyl acrylate production started at 65.83%, slightly lower than the previous month. It is expected that the installation start-up next month will be 60-70%; butyl acetate butyl acetate's average monthly operating rate is 41.28% , an increase of 2.10 percentage points from last month. The current demand is weak, and it is expected that construction will start next month or there will be little change; in June, the average construction start-up of my country's plasticizer assets was around 46%, a slight increase from the previous month, and the subsequent 7 Judging from monthly construction starts, construction starts may remain low during some periods.
Supply side: In June, multiple sets of butyl-octanol units in the country were undergoing centralized maintenance, and the average monthly start-ups moved downward. In mid-to-late June, domestic units gradually resumed operations. At the end of the month, the start-up of domestic butyl-octanol units increased to a high level, followed by July. , the domestic butyl-octanol plant operation may remain at a high level, or more than 90% of the operation may remain.
Generally speaking, my country's butanyl octanol market may rebound after reaching a low level in July, and the overall market is mainly weak and volatile. At present, the market price of butanyl octanol has fallen to a low level, and the downside volume is limited. Factories are slightly willing to raise prices. After Shanghai's unblocking, downstream and terminal conditions have not improved significantly. It will still take time for downstream conditions to recover. July is still the customary off-season for downstream products. The digestion speed of raw materials may gradually stabilize, and we still need to pay attention to changes in the fundamentals of downstream products in July.
