Hello everyone, I am Quantum Panda.
just said what I said yesterday. Everyone thinks that it is not that easy to pull back. As a result, I was deceived today by opening low and moving high.
Yes, short-term trends are based on deception, don’t be fooled by those “stock gods”.
It’s a holiday in the north today, but the trading volume in the two cities still reached 1,159.8 billion yuan. It can be seen that everyone’s enthusiasm is getting higher and higher. At this time, if someone says that the bull market is not bullish...then be careful.
In the morning, the Bureau of Statistics announced that the PMI index in June was 50.2%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6pct. It has finally returned to the expansion range after three months. Although the absolute value is not high, it is also a good thing. After all, the V-shaped trend It has taken shape. As long as July does not commit suicide, continued expansion is basically a certainty.
However, it is also important to note that as the good news about the effectiveness of the policy gradually comes out, the big thunder of the half-year performance forecast is about to come. I don’t know how much thunder will come in the first half of the year, such as today’s new stock. This is a case...
Then enter the new part of today, starting with our regular statement.
In view of the gradual opening up of registration system and and the gradual normalization of new stock issuance, and the new stocks in my company have also encountered the situation of breakout... so I decided to launch a new must-read series to analyze and judge the subscription value of new stocks.
This part of the research started in November 2021. So far, hundreds of new stocks have been analyzed. The overall statistical accuracy is close to 90%. However, because new stocks are more susceptible to many factors than already listed companies, and the data verification cycle is still If it is shorter, there will be certain risks.
So what I can guarantee is that I will tell you how I analyzed it, and I will implement it according to this plan. What I cannot guarantee is that it will not break.
Description of new stock inspection elements
inspection elements 1: Comparable industries and companies.
Look at the business scope of the company, determine the industry it belongs to, and select comparable companies with greater similarity. It is of course easier to have ready-made things.
Inspection factor 2: issue price and issue price-to-earnings ratio.
Refer to the recent break situation. The higher the stock price, the greater the risk of break. This factor is not very important.
Under the registration system, the pricing and valuation of new shares are more market-oriented. The value of any company cannot be separated from the fundamentals of the industry and the company, so the price-to-earnings ratio is the absolute key factor in the analysis of new shares.
Excellent companies can indeed obtain higher valuations than the industry because of their growth, so the third step to screen is growth.
inspection element 3: performance.
Did the company's past revenue and profits grow steadily or decline year by year? Whether there are significant fluctuations. If there are significant fluctuations, you need to focus on whether there is any suspicion of adjusting the statements for listing and valuation purposes.
Examination element 4: Market sentiment.
It is undeniable that in addition to the fundamentals in the issuance of new shares, the emotional aspect also has a great influence, especially for some hot tracks, the willingness to speculate on funds is higher, so this part of the analysis will also be appropriately increased after comprehensive consideration. Of course Everything still has to start from the fundamentals. Enter the official content below
.
Analysis of new shares that can be purchased on July 1, 2022
Tianxin Pharmaceutical (603235):
Basic information of the company:
's full name is "Jiangxi Tianxin Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", and its main business is the research and development, production and sales of monomeric vitamin products. Sale.
's main products are monomeric vitamins, including vitamin B6, vitamin B1, biotin, folic acid, vitamin D3, ascorbyl palmitate, vitamin E powder, etc., which are widely used in downstream industries such as feed, medicine and food. field. The company's main products and forms are as follows:
's business is relatively simple, mainly the production of monomeric vitamins, and then it will start large-scale mass production of biotin in 2020.
The company's products are sold all over the world, among which the main products vitamin B6 and vitamin B1 have a high market share in the global market.
corresponds to Shenwan's secondary industry of chemical pharmaceuticals, and the comparable listed companies are New Hutchison (002001), Brother Technology (002562), Shengda Biotechnology (603079), Guangji Pharmaceutical (000952).
issuance situation:
enterprise is underwritten by CITIC Securities . The current market value is 14.531 billion yuan, the new issue market value is 1.61 billion yuan, the issue price is 36.88 yuan, the issuance price-to-earnings ratio is 22.99, PE-TTM20.28x, top-level subscription for requires 130,000 yuan market capitalization.
compared to the chemical pharmaceutical industry PE-TTM is 41.94x, compared to Xinhecheng PE-TTM is 16.05x, compared to Brother Technology PE-TTM is 57.28x, compared to Shengda Biotech PE-TTM is 31.14x, compared to Guangji Pharmaceutical PE -TTM is 25.27x.
performance:
expects operating income from January to June 2022 to be 1,153.19 million yuan to 1,210.8495 million yuan, with a change range of -9.00% to -4.45% compared with the same period last year;
expects net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is 370.2168 million yuan to 386.1613 million yuan, with a change range of -12.83% to -9.07% compared to the same period last year;
is expected to net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses to be 335.0233 million yuan to 35,096.78 yuan million, with a change range of -14.36% to -10.28% compared to the same period last year.
's operating income in 2021 was 2,522,433,800 yuan, its revenue in 2020 was 2,303,589,700 yuan, and its revenue in 2019 was 2,024,951,000 yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of 11.61%.
will deduct 702.2481 million yuan of non-returning net profit in 2021, 814.3165 million yuan in 2020 deducting non-returning net profit, and 717.7129 million yuan in 2019, with a compound annual growth rate of -1.08%.
From 2019 to 2021, revenue growth will be average, but profits will remain unchanged. Looking at the breakdown, the main decline will be a larger decline in 2021, and then both revenue and profits will decline in the first half of 2022.
explained with reference to the prospectus that the decline in 2021 was mainly due to the impact of supply and demand in the international market, which led to sharp price cuts, but raw materials increased significantly, and R&D expenses also increased significantly. In the first half of 2022, the impact of the epidemic was mainly due to the tight downstream demand and transportation capacity. Then the price of raw materials continues to rise.
In terms of specific gross profit margins, the gross profit margins of the main business from 2019 to 2021 were 51.80%, 55.09% and 43.99% respectively. The absolute value of the gross profit margins is relatively high, but there will be a sharp decline in 2021 for the reasons mentioned earlier. Compared with its peers,
's gross profit margin is at a relatively high level, mainly due to differences in product segmentation structure, but it will be equally miserable in 2021.
Judging from the company's fundamentals, the performance is actually pretty good. The lack of profit in the past two years is mainly due to the epidemic and its associated impacts.
Judging from the issuance situation, the issuance price on the Shanghai Main Board is average, the issuance price-to-earnings ratio is average, and the PE-TTM is average. The final summary of
is as follows. The fundamentals are slightly weak and the distribution is not good. Considering that the Shanghai main board is not particularly bad, it is still okay.
new rating: positive, my operation: Subscription.
Subscription Suggestions:
is positive, with good fundamentals and issuance conditions, and the risk of a breakout is small.
is cautious, there are certain problems with fundamentals or issuance, and the risk of a break is average.
gives up, there are major problems with fundamentals or issuance, and the risk of a break is greater.
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