1. Analysis of the spot market this week
1. The demand side has improved slightly, and steel prices have rebounded in a restorative manner
Recently, steel mills have continued to expand the scope of production cuts, with factory and social warehouses declining significantly; terminal stocking and market speculation demand have improved slightly, and steel supply and demand Conflicts have eased; market pessimism has been released, and steel prices have rebounded restoratively.
2. The contradiction between supply and demand has been alleviated, and the total inventory of steel has dropped significantly. In terms of production, steel mills have generally been in a state of loss recently, with increasing pressure, production reductions and shutdowns, and capacity utilization and operating rates continuing to decline. In particular, the output of building materials has dropped significantly. This week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 87.61%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.37%; the average electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 35.59%, a month-on-month decrease of 8.26%. In terms of inventory, the contradiction between supply and demand has eased, and the total inventory of steel products nationwide has decreased by 710,000 tons, a significant decrease.
3. The apparent consumption of steel products continued to rebound, and market transactions continued to pick up.
The apparent demand for threads nationwide was 3.24 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons from the previous week; the apparent demand for hot rolling was 3.28 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons from the previous month. Judging from the actual transaction performance, terminal stocking of building materials and market speculation demand have been released this week, and the overall transaction atmosphere is acceptable; demand for sheet metal has been released slowly, and transactions have continued to be sluggish. This week, the average daily trading volume of building materials among 237 distributors across the country was 166,900 tons, an average increase of 12,200 tons from last week, an increase of 7.89%.
2. Market forecast for next week
At this stage, steel plants have increased production and maintenance, and the supply of steel has decreased; although demand has improved, the continued high temperature and rainfall have posed certain obstacles to downstream construction, and terminal procurement has insufficient sustainability. The market Speculative sentiment has also cooled down, dragging down the room for rebound in steel prices.
Secondly, judging from the production data, the recent reduction in hot metal production has been slow and the raw material inventory of steel mills is low. Some steel mills in Shanxi have once again proposed a second round of coke price reduction of 200 yuan/ton, but mainstream steel mills have not responded yet. At present, most of the profits of coke enterprises are upside down, and their willingness to start operations is weak. However, under the steel mill maintenance plan or the expectation of continued increase, the steel mills are more willing to suppress the price of raw materials again; Jiao Steel is once again gaming, and the short-term raw material prices may decline with resistance.
Again, affected by the Federal Reserve 's continued interest rate hikes and balance sheet shrinkage , expectations for a global economic recession have increased. Under expectations of high inflation, liquidity contraction, and stagflation, commodity demand has weakened and prices have rebounded, which has affected the black system. The commodity futures market is a drag and has a negative impact on spot market sentiment.
Taken together, insufficient demand resilience restricts the room for rebound in steel prices, raw and fuel prices are under pressure, and cost support is still expected to move downwards; futures closed sharply lower at the end of the weekend, and Tangshan billet prices fell below 4,000 yuan/ton again. The pessimism in the market has returned, and some merchants have significantly increased their operations, such as silent sales and profit concessions, in order to stimulate transactions. The long-short game continues in the short-term market, and steel prices show a range-bound trend. It is expected that the market will weaken first and then stabilize next week.
3. Southwest market review
A
construction steel
1. Price changes of rebar in major cities
2. Social inventory of construction steel in southwest China
Steel spot prices rebounded at low levels this week, terminal stocking and market speculation demand were released, and the overall transaction atmosphere OK.
In terms of inventory, social inventories of building materials fell across the board this week. On the one hand, the inventory resources of merchants have been basically at a loss recently, and the demand in the off-season is not sustainable, so the willingness to replenish inventory is weak; on the other hand, the production profits of steel mills have been poor recently, and some steel mills have taken the initiative to control and reduce production, resulting in a slight decline in supply; The recent steel production cuts outside the region have been greater, and the inflow of peripheral resources has been smaller.
B
Hot-rolled coils
1. Price changes of hot-rolled coils in major cities
2. Social inventory of hot-rolled coils in southwest China
Hot-rolled spot prices in southwest China rebounded from lows this week, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm improved slightly compared with the previous period, but the trading volume was not There was no obvious release, and the overall performance was average; this week, the shipment volume of hot roll from sample warehouses in Chengdu was 25,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,900 tons. In terms of resources, the arrival of resources from local steel mills is accelerating. The overall market performance is that the inbound volume is greater than the outbound volume, and social inventories continue to increase.
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