cover news reporter Meng Mei
On June 30, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. Data show that the manufacturing purchasing managers index, non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index in June were 50.2%, 54.7% and 54.1% respectively.
Liu Dian, a distinguished associate researcher at at the China Research Institute of Fudan University, said in an interview with a reporter from cover news that the manufacturing PMI in June returned to the expansion range after three consecutive months of contraction, but the foundation for the recovery of market demand still needs to be consolidated. .
Liu Dian said that the line chart of the entire manufacturing PMI index in the first half of the year basically showed a "deep V" trend, reflecting the continued expansion of the expansion range of the recovery of the manufacturing industry, and also reflecting the stabilization and improvement of the Chinese economy. , economic recovery has made initial progress. Compared with May, more industries have returned to the expansion range. For example, the production index and new order index of automobiles, general equipment, special equipment, computer communications electronic equipment and other industries are higher than 54%, and production and demand have recovered faster than the overall manufacturing industry. level. In addition, PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises also belongs to the faster expansion range. The PMI of large enterprises was 50.2%, higher than the critical point for two consecutive months; the PMI of medium-sized enterprises was 51.3%, 1.9 percentage points higher than in May. It is worth noting that the PMI of small companies was 48.6%, which has not yet returned to the expansion range. In other words, the development of enterprises of different sizes has become differentiated. Generally speaking, large and medium-sized enterprises will be the first to enter the expansion cycle, while small enterprises may still need some time to recover.
"Overall, the changes in PMI data can be summarized from four aspects: first, the fundamentals of recovery have further expanded; second, the balance of the industry has been adjusted and has returned to healthy operation; third, there has been a clear change in market expectations. Fourth, the non-manufacturing business activity index rebounded significantly in June, becoming an important engine for the stable growth of the modern economy," Liu Dian said.
In Liu Dian's view, although the problem of weakening market expectations and demand has been improved to a certain extent, the overall foundation needs to be further consolidated. In particular, the recovery of economic fundamentals needs to be further strengthened, because the pressure to stabilize the economy is still relatively high. Furthermore, the recovery of various industries is close to a full recovery, but there are some internal differences in the recovery trend. In this process, the core issue is insufficient market demand, and this issue is particularly important for non-manufacturing companies.
"This requires efficient overall coordination of epidemic prevention and control and stable economic growth, minimizing the impact of the epidemic on economic activities, and placing stable growth in a more prominent position. Through the realization of effective markets and promising governments Better combination to activate the endogenous driving force of China's market vitality and economic growth," Liu Dian suggested.
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