[Uncle Hui to watch the disk]
Wind power and photovoltaics are both called new energy "Gemini" by the outside world, but how lively the photovoltaic industry is, the wind power industry is just as desolate... 0p
For a long time in the past, the wind power sector has been neglected by the capital market. Even when analysts "raised their arms and shouted" to pay attention to the A-share new energy sector in the second quarter of last year, wind power did not cause much trouble in this round of market conditions.wind power is not to be seen for two reasons:
1. From the “quantity” point of view:
In the context of onshore wind power installation in 2020, the annual installed capacity will exceed 70GW . However, the market is more cautious in judging the scale of wind power installations in the next two years;
2. From the "profit" point of view:
Since the beginning of 2020, the wind power bidding price has entered a downward channel, and the current mainstream bidding price has dropped to 2500 yuan Below /KW, there are differences in the profitability of subsequent wind turbines; at the same time, the superimposed upstream raw material prices increase, the industry's apparent profitability is squeezed to a certain extent.
However, "feng shui" takes turns. Unknowingly, wind power finally ushered in an outbreak!
As of September 3, among the 29 component stocks of wind power, 20 concept stocks rose, and the stock prices of 6 wind power companies rose at a daily limit. Among them, the stock price of Goldwind Technology , which has the highest market value, has a daily limit for two consecutive days.The total market value exceeded 70 billion yuan.
At the same time, the wind power industry also handed in its performance report card in the first half of this year.
In the first half of this year, 23 A-share wind power companies achieved a total operating income of 93.647 billion yuan, and a total net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 11.998 billion yuan. Among them, 19 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth in operating income in the first half of the year, and only three companies saw a year-on-year decline in net profit in the first half of the year.
In addition, the operating income of electric wind power increased by more than 122% during the reporting period. , , silverstar energy, Zhenjiang shares and other 8 companies have doubled their net profit.
Lao Tie who has been following research reports must have noticed it! Recently, the capital market has paid more attention to the wind power sector, and institutional research reports have been issued frequently. Some analysts even made no secret of their position that the current A-share wind power sector has a low valuation and high cost performance.
Today, let’s talk about the wind power that has recently become popular.
In my opinion, photovoltaics are lithium batteries one year late. For photovoltaics, the market has verified that the K-line of Longji is exactly the same as Ningde, which is one year late.
And wind power is photovoltaics one year late!
The certainty of wind power is determined by the development of the industry itself, which involves many industry development factors, led by parity.
wind power is going to go main Shenglang ,It needs to develop its own industry to a certain extent and wait for a market to recognize its valuation increase.
wind power has gone three waves this year:
1. The first wave, starting at the end of June, Yunda took the lead in launching. This is a wave of oversold rebound. In the first half of the year, the market was worried that the repayment would affect the performance, and the bulk volume also rose sharply, so the wind power fell a lot. Moreover, the trend of Yunda shares cannot drive the entire sector, which is an independent market for its own reasons.
2. The second wave, launched in late July, will report mid-market quotations. Wind power performance is very good. Among them, Hewang Electric has the best increase because of the light of energy storage.
3. The third wave, a few days ago. Mainly because of a policy, a collective outbreak. (Wind power photovoltaic base project)
However, this should not be the main wave of wind power, because the logic of the rise is not the increase in industry valuation but other reasons.
I personally expect that the real main wave of wind power should be between the end of this year and the first half of next year. (May be beaten in the face) Of course, it is not ruled out that this time the policy causes the main Shenglang to advance, but personally feel that this possibility is not very high. On Friday, there has been a clear division within the sector, and we can focus on it next week.
Let’s look at the logic of the wind power outbreak.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan period, wind power almost did not grow. In the context of a high base number of installations in 20 years, the market was once downplayed by the demand for wind power installations in 21 years.
But! 2021, unexpectedly high demand boom.
1. "Volume" exceeded expectations
May 2019,The National Development and G Committee issued the "Notice on Improving the Wind Power Feed-in Tariff Policy". In 2019, the newly approved offshore wind power guidance price that was in line with the plan and included in the fiscal subsidy annual scale management was adjusted to 0.8 yuan per kilowatt hour and 0.75 per kilowatt hour in 2020. Yuan, the on-grid electricity price determined through competition for newly approved offshore wind power projects shall not be higher than the above-mentioned guide price.
Under the guidance of policy, 2021 is the year of sea breeze installation, and sea breeze is expected to contribute a considerable increase in installed capacity throughout the year.
CEC released a forecast report in July this year. It is estimated that by the end of 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power across the country is expected to reach 330 million kilowatts (330GW), and it is estimated that the installed scale of wind power in 2021 is expected to be close 50GW, to a certain extent, confirms the upward expectation of wind power installed capacity in 2021.
2. The unexpectedly high bidding boom is expected to support the installation basis for the next two years
Since the fourth quarter of 2020, the wind power bidding scale has been maintained at around 15GW for three consecutive quarters (annual bidding scale is nearly 60GW) ), this bidding scale is close to the peak bidding level in 2019.
It is not difficult to calculate that the annual wind power bidding scale in 2021 is likely to exceed 50GW. From bidding to installation is connected to the grid has a time interval of about 1-2 years. The 21-year high bidding scale will provide strong support for the installation of wind power in the next two years.
Behind the hot bidding is the rapid decline in prices brought about by the large-scale wind turbines. The bidding price of mainstream dropped rapidly from the previous highest around 4000 yuan/KW.The cumulative decline has exceeded 30%.
In the context of the rapid decline in tender prices, the cost-effective advantages of wind power project yields have become clearer, which is expected to drive the steady growth of wind power installations.
This is big logic! At the same time, wind power is the only way for us to achieve carbon neutrality. If energy storage continues to erupt, wind power may also exceed expectations.
The following is a personal understanding to share with you a few companies, not as a basis for buying and selling.
1. Mingyang Smart: Offshore wind power is the best benchmark, large-scale + offshore two-wheel drive.
As of the end of the first quarter of this year, the company's wind turbine orders reached 15.77GW, a record high, of which offshore units accounted for 35%.
In Q1 of 2021, the company's external sales capacity is 959MW (+33.4%), of which offshore shipments are 294MW (+122.8%), and offshore shipments account for up to 31%.
Mingyang Smart expects to deduct non-net profit of about 900 million yuan in the first half of 2021, a year-on-year increase of about 75%, and the current market value is 42 billion yuan. From the perspective of profitability, gross profit margin is between 20%-25% and net profit margin is between 5%-6%.
The reasons for the high performance of the company:
1. In the first half of 2021, the wind power industry as a whole maintains a growth trend. The prosperity of the wind power industry drives the growth of wind power sales;
2. The company’s grid-connected capacity increases,Increase in revenue from power generation.
2. Yunda shares
Yunda shares about 7% of the domestic market share in 2020, only lagging behind Goldwind, energy, Mingyang Smart and Shanghai Electric_ span6span, but the company's market value is much lower than the previous four, the company's current market value is 15.05 billion.
is different from Mingyang Intelligent, Yunda shares a bit of a reversal, from bad to good, so the flexibility is the largest.
According to incomplete statistics, as of the end of May this year, the company has added more than 6GW of new orders this year, ranking among the best in the market (the company has another 6.16GW of orders by the end of 2020), and the company’s future market share will increase with a high degree of certainty .
Now that wind power is very hot, many new friends have begun to pay attention to this sector. I personally think that it is not a time to chase high.
short-term, not long, not short. If you have open positions, you can continue to hold them for a long time. It is not necessary to follow the trend in the short-term, and the risks need to be controlled.
.
