A few things on Saturday, just a few words:
1) The non-agricultural employment population in the United States increased by 235,000 after the August seasonal adjustment, which was far below the expected increase of 720,000_ span3span , which is much worse than the previous ADP employment number, the reason we have analyzed earlier ( main anchor took the wrong medicine, it is too outrageous. ), one is the old American's very awareness of epidemic prevention Poor, causing the epidemic to break out again, adding more than 160,000 in a single day, affecting residents to go out and looking for work, resulting in poor employment data.
Second, after he came on stage, Old Bi gave out money wildly and raised a group of lazy people who did not go to work and were lying at home to receive relief. Now they have to stop distributing part of the relief money, and this group of people cannot be stimulated to go out. Work.
The slowdown in employment data will affect the Fed’s process of liquidity. The employment data in the next few months will be very critical. The previous market expectation was that if employment resumes normally, the Fed may start to shrink the balance sheet at the end of the year. , Now that the employment data is not good, the corresponding time will be delayed.
2) A certain Chinese concept stock listed on the U.S. stocks, the stock price rose sharply last night and then fell. Foreign media reported some rumors that the company quickly dispelled the rumors. How will this matter come true? The emotional impact of is still relatively large,Stay tuned.
3) Ping An announced that the cumulative repurchase amount exceeded 2.7 billion . The chairman of the company Ma Mingzhe personally went off to buy stocks in the secondary market at a cost of about 2 million yuan, and six other directors, supervisors and senior executives also increased their holdings in the secondary market. Ping An's own repurchase is an employee stock ownership plan, and it will still be released in the future. The amount of increase in the holdings by executives is not too large, and it is just a statement.
The current PB of Ping An is 1.19 times. Insurance stocks are generally valued by PEV. PB can only be regarded as the last defensive line. From the perspective of PB, Ping An is indeed cheaper, but it operates The data is not so good, the performance growth is not good, and the market sentiment is not good. Just saying that it is cheap is not the reason for the rise, but only if there is improvement in operating data and performance, the sentiment of funds may change.
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Many friends reported that the analysis of two financial reports a week can’t be digested, especially one on Saturday, so we plan to post only one financial analysis article on Saturday. . If there is an emergency on Saturday, let’s talk a little more. There is nothing particularly worth talking about. We will focus on financial analysis articles~
Here is the financial analysis for this week Column: Mingyang smart
The wind power sector has surged recently,The industry characteristics are also very obvious in the financial report. Today, the team took the financial report of Mingyang Intelligent as an example to take everyone to take a look at the companies engaged in the sales of wind turbine products and the operation and maintenance service industry. What are the characteristics of the financial reports.
As a standard starting action for financial observation, the first step is to open the Earnings Assistant applet. The group likes to combine the highlight label and risk label to see what is happening in the company’s financial report. At a glance, the N labels in the debt dimension almost all say one thing: the payment to suppliers is swelling (left side), which can explain that the "high debt-to-asset ratio" in the right half of the picture is not too worrying. (Because it is mainly due to the change in the debt ratio caused by the increase in operating liabilities; but the other side of the synchronization with the supplier’s supply is that the inventory is also accumulating rapidly, and the net operating cash flow is continuously pushed up and occupied by the inventory. There has been a continuous downward trend, which is not a good phenomenon.
Since many of the attention labels are triggered from the balance sheet, let’s take a look at the company’s How assets have expanded in the past five years. After all, the development history of a company is actually written in the process of asset expansion. From the following figure to track the traces of asset expansion, you can quickly get a few discoveries:
1. In the past five years, the company has mainly relied on debt expansion on the resource side, because the total liabilities represented by the orange line on the right are much higher than the equity represented by the brown dotted line;
2. The company’s asset side is mainly liquid As a result of the expansion of assets, the expansion of non-current assets is relatively slow;
3. The company’s assets have grown rapidly since 19 years.19 and 20 years have been expanding extremely fast, which is completely different from the slow expansion before.
We talk about these three discoveries one by one. First look at liabilities. The main driving force of liabilities comes from current liabilities on the purple line on the right, so we naturally focus on the composition of current liabilities.
In the current liabilities, except for the notes payable and accounts payable that the financial reporting assistant found that represents the supplier's account, it is indeed the main component (the blue area in the figure below), the red block of advance receipt Accounts (or contract liabilities) have grown very rapidly; and this fast-growing change also occurred in 19 years. How to understand this phenomenon? The group often mentioned in the basic course of financial reporting that payable represents the company’s bargaining power with suppliers, and the advance payment reflects the company’s bargaining power with customers; if a company has very strong bargaining power both upstream and downstream, the company Probably Maotai (manual dog head); but because this sharp rise in advance receipts occurred suddenly in 19, something important must have happened in 19. Because the wind power industry is an industry that revolves around the “baton” of policies, recalling public opinion, it is not difficult to find that the important event in 19 years is the rush to install wind power on land. Since it is “grabbing”, it is natural to pre-collect customer wind turbine payments.
After understanding these changes on the liability side, the changes on the asset side can quickly be understood: since a large amount of wind turbine payments are received in advance, the corresponding book funds will naturally rise sharply. (The blue block in the figure below); at the same time, due to the ups and downs of the game, in the past two years, orange has better control of customer receivables; while the purple inventory is due to material preparation. Stocking, etc., has produced a large increase.
It’s worth noting that,Despite the rush for installation, the expansion of productive assets in the light blue picture above is very restrained. Capital expenditure actually represents the management’s layout and prediction of the industry. If this is changed to other cyclical industries, if there is a huge expansion of the industry Opportunities are bound to require full-scale capital expenditure even if debt financing is required. However, in the wind power industry, the increase in capital expenditure cannot keep up with the pace of inventory expansion. Isn’t it a bit “conservative”? In fact, this conservativeness reflects the characteristics of the industry. Just now I said that 20 years have been the rush to install onshore wind power, and 21 years are actually the rush to install offshore wind power. After these two years of rush to install, the wind power industry Facing the challenge of standardization, of course, we can't expand blindly and optimistically.
But optimistically speaking, wind power has always given the impression that it relies on government subsidies. When did this situation begin to change? From the table below, it can be observed that since 18 years, government subsidies accounted for a lower and lower proportion of net profit, and independent profitability has become stronger, especially in 20 years. The decline is very large. Due to the characteristics of the industry, even if the electricity price is subsidized It is also a hard constraint on unit income, so this profitability is achieved more by cost control.
This kind of cost control is of course not created out of thin air. Look at the red block in the red block of the year-on-year research and development costs, you know that the company is really "working hard" ~ cost control It is a system engineering, and the company itself actively participates in technology upgrades. For example, in the company’s product revenue, from the early "1.5-2MW" wind turbines to the later "3-5MW" wind turbines, and then to the current "5.5MW offshore" wind turbines. , This change deeply reflects the company's product technological iteration, through research and development to increase equipment power generation. There are also actions such as supply chain integration and strengthening of control. Every link in this is a test for the company. At this time, the phrase "opportunities are hidden in the details" should be met. In addition, on the surface, the company’s gross profit margin seems to have fallen relatively quickly, but in fact, it is more because the new revenue standard has been applied in 20 years, which has caused part of the transportation costs originally attributable to sales expenses to be directly adjusted to operating costs.And there is no retrospective adjustment of historical comparable data. Therefore, if you want to understand the changes in gross profit margin, you can refer to the orange dotted line in the figure below. This is a uniform gross profit margin, so we can quickly find out the decline in gross profit margin. Not as exaggerated as it seems on the surface, the company's ability to control costs is still worthy of recognition.
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