Yesterday we mentioned that the A-share market in September must have changes in incremental funds. Today, we released one on the news. The domestic Securities Regulatory Commission indicated that it will continue to expand the scope of specific open varieties. Broaden the opening model, adopt more bonded delivery and cash delivery models, facilitate the participation of international investors, and pay more attention to the in-depth docking of institutional rules and the international market. This is the attitude of embracing more capital participation. If you want to make the pool bigger and the gold content of A-shares full, the channels for expansion must be widened so that the river of capital can have a way to come in. At the same time, Our A-share market will attract more international capital.
Today is the first trading day in September. The market basically continues the old style of August, but also brings some new changes. The characteristics of shock and differentiation remain on the old style, but the Shanghai Index is trending strongly. The ChiNext index is weaker, and the strong and weak sectors have reversed. In mid-August, the sectors that have always been weak are again sought after by funds. Brokers have violently pulled up, and big consumption has bottomed out, driven by banking, insurance, real estate, liquor and other sectors. The index rebounded sharply, giving people an impression of "feng shui turns".
So on the first day of September, the high-prosperity track collapsed, lithium-ion photovoltaics plummeted, and the periodic table of the elements failed. Does it mean that the main funding has to slow down and shift gears?
I don’t think this possibility can be ruled out. The analysis is as follows:
[In terms of self-thinking]
We started to pay attention to some subtle changes in the market since August 19 last month. , And constantly began to look for factors that may affect the future market trend in changes. For example, we proposed that the market is returning to the mean, and some sectors may face value revaluation. The importance of A-shares and the main reason why A-shares are attractive to Beijing capital,At the same time, we also put forward thinking about how long the cyclical stocks can be strong in response to the strong changes in the cyclical stocks, and also analyzed the price-controlled liquor industry... In these series of superimposed thinking, we determined that "the market is returning to equilibrium, although The market’s certainty is not strong, but opportunities still exist".
[Over-the-counter economic data]
From the economic data in August, the main indicators of PMI fell across the board in August, especially the new orders, new export orders and other leading indicators fell sharply, and the economy fell The signs are realistic. We can also feel some uncertain changes brought to us by the economic downturn from the frequently appearing news keywords in August, such as the rebound of the epidemic, the impact of floods represented by Henan, and the real estate The continuous escalation of regulation, the rising debt pressure of the chief real estate company Evergrande, and the most lively topic is the topic of rising commodity costs, which has triggered the news of the joint name of electricity companies requesting electricity tariffs... etc.
our ordinary Individual investors have begun to think about and pay attention to these types of issues, which shows that economic changes have impacted the daily life of ordinary terminals, and it also indicates that the issue of cyclical stocks and commodity inflation is approaching its peak. This shows that we have repeatedly raised the issue last month. In the second half of the year, the problem of increasing downward pressure on the economy began to emerge very prominently. I think this period of time in early September is the transition point where policies should be taken to solve the problem. The introduction of further monetary easing policies may be approaching the countdown.
Generally, loose monetary policy is beneficial to capital-sensitive industries, companies with high financial costs, and large-scale sectors with low valuations. Today, banks, insurance, real estate, liquor, and brokerage stocks coincide with each other. The collective rise is a bit abnormal. It does not rule out that the main market has captured a certain signal of certainty. On the other hand, from the perspective of market equilibrium, the market with an excessive adjustment range will also perform a normal average. In terms of regression, from this point of view, the consumer sector that was adjusted too much in August still has room for a rebound in September.
It is worth noting that the new monetary easing policy must be structural, and strive for a stable and balanced economic development effect. Therefore, we also need to see which structural end the policy falls on, and this is still This is the focus of our attention in September.
Finally, I wish A-share Changhong and my friends good health.
.
