Kweichow Moutai, the "myth" of A-shares, has fallen for 5 consecutive trading days since its first quarterly report for 2021 was released on April 28, with a cumulative drop of more than 9%, and its market value has shrunk by more than 240 billion yuan, almost losing 1 Zijin Mining or 1 SANY.
On May 10, Kweichow Moutai fell again. After the market opened, it quickly fell below 1,900 yuan, with the lowest intraday price of 1,866.01 yuan and a maximum drop of 1.94%, hitting a new low for the year.
Calculated from the high point of 2627.88 yuan in February, the cumulative decline was close to 28% in less than 3 months, and the market value of Kweichow Moutai lost the largest amount of nearly 950 billion yuan, almost equal to the total market value of Wuliangye or Agricultural Bank. Why did
fall?
The recent pressure on Kweichow Moutai’s share price is mainly due to two reasons. On the one hand, the growth rate of Kweichow Moutai’s performance has declined continuously in the past two years, and the year-on-year growth of net profit in the first quarter of 2021 has dropped to single digits. Growth is expected to move down. Moreover, the negative growth of net operating cash in the first quarter also adversely affected its share price.
However, every time the profit performance is not satisfactory, it will bring some disturbance to the share price of Kweichow Moutai. However, it continued to fall by about 30%, which is rare in the history of Kweichow Moutai. It had only previously appeared four times in 2008, 2012-2014, 2015, and 2018.
Among them, in December 2007, Kweichow Moutai reached a maximum of more than 230 yuan, but in August of the following year, it had fallen to less than 85 yuan, with a cumulative decline of more than 60%. In about two years from 2012 to 2014, the share price of Kweichow Moutai continued to fall, from a high of more than 260 yuan to a low of about 118 yuan, with a maximum decline of more than 50%.
Since 2015, a similar situation has happened twice. From May to August 2015, the share price of Kweichow Moutai fell from more than 290 yuan to around 166 yuan, a drop of more than 40%. In addition, from the end of September to the end of October 2018, its share price also fell by more than 30%.
On the other hand, the high valuation is the root cause of the recent continuous sell-off in Kweichow Moutai's stock price.In 2019, Kweichow Moutai rose by 109% (resumption of rights), and in 2020, it rose by more than 71%. The stock price has been rising continuously, so that the stock price is out of the support of the fundamentals, resulting in a situation of high valuation. Calculated at the highest price this year, the dynamic price-earnings ratio at that time was as high as 71 times. Even after a substantial adjustment, the dynamic price-earnings ratio was still as high as 43 times based on the closing price at noon today, which is still far higher than the market average price-earnings ratio. It is also much higher than Kweichow Moutai's own. Historical average price-earnings ratio.
On May 10, liquor stocks showed a divergent trend as a whole in early trading. The breakout of Kweichow Moutai led to a pullback in first-tier liquor stocks such as Luzhou Laojiao and Wuliangye. However, ST was willing to open low and go high to a strong daily limit, and the stock price once again hit a record high, which drove the second- and third-tier liquor stocks such as Shuijingfang, Jiuguijiu, and Yilite to rise one after another.
Zhongtai Securities said that with the end of the annual report and quarterly report, the liquor sector has entered the off-season. In the off-season lack of performance catalyst, the main focus should be on the catalyst of rising prices to stock prices. Specifically: (1) Historically, the prices of famous wines in the off-season all appeared in the off-season. Up; (2) the high-end leads, and the sub-high-end follows; (3) the upward price has a catalytic effect on the stock price.
brokerages are still optimistic, and foreign capital has entered the market to buy the bottom?
Kweichow Moutai's five-straight decline began in the first quarterly report. In the first quarter of this year, Kweichow Moutai's operating income was 27.27 billion yuan, and its net profit was 13.95 billion yuan, up 11.74% and 6.57% year-on-year respectively. The growth rate of net profit has dropped to single digits.
But major brokerages are still optimistic about Moutai: CITIC Securities said that short-term performance fluctuations will not change the trend throughout the year, and continue to be optimistic about the value of Moutai's core assets, with the strongest support and flexibility, and maintain a "buy" rating.
Zhongtai Securities reiterated its buy rating on Kweichow Moutai, saying that Moutai is expected to increase in both volume and price in 2021, with aggressive goals in the 14th Five-Year Plan, and is expected to continue to achieve steady growth in the medium and long term.
According to the first quarterly report, as of the end of March, the E Fund Blue Chip Selected Hybrid Securities Investment Fund managed by Zhang Kun held 4.32 million shares in Kweichow Moutai. The fund did not appear among the top ten shareholders in last year’s annual report; China Life- Traditional-general insurance products-005L-CT001 The number of shares held in Shanghai increased from 3.894 million shares at the end of last year to 4.341 million shares.
In addition, according to wind data, the main funds in the past five trading days have sold nearly 900 million yuan in Kweichow Moutai. It is worth mentioning that foreign capital has begun to focus on raising Kweichow Moutai. Today, northbound funds bought a net 4.527 billion yuan, a net purchase for 3 consecutive days. Among them, liquor stocks regained funds to increase their positions after continuous decline. Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye bought nets. With an investment of more than 400 million yuan, Luzhou Laojiao has a net purchase of more than 100 million yuan.
21Comprehensive Securities Times, Brokerage Research Report, Wind and other public information
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