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Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. The following are the author's personal investment thoughts and do not constitute recommendations.
When it comes to investing in stocks, the most unfriendly point for white investors is that there is no clear expected rate of return when investing in stock assets.
Unlike when you buy products such as wealth management and bonds, there is a relatively clear expected rate of return. Although 3%-4% is less, but at least there is an expectation.
And the stock price jumps up and down every day. After buying, they don’t know how much they will earn in the future. No wonder many novice investors can’t hold it. You really have no hope.
So is there a way,Can I know how much return rate can I expect from the time I invest in stocks?
Cong Daxian will come to give you the disk today. What is the expected rate of return for investing in stocks at different times?
1. The rate of return that you can get by investing in CSI 300 (large-cap stocks) at different times is the most important factor that affects your investment rate
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Is the stock expensive? A common indicator to measure the price of stocks is the price-to-earnings ratio "PE".
So in history, are there any rules for the investment yield of buying A shares at different price-earnings ratios?
The figure below shows the scatter plot distribution of the 3-year yield of the CSI 300 Index at different price-earnings ratio levels (that is, every trading day in history) in the past ten years. Each point is a data pair of (the price-earnings ratio at the time of purchase, and the annualized return rate of investment and holding for 3 years from that point in time).
For example,The red point in the figure is on May 14, 2013, when the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index price-to-earnings ratio was estimated to be 10.2 times the price-to-earnings ratio, and the annualized yield of holding for three years was 6.7%.
Because historically, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index has a P/E ratio of 10.2 times for many times. Although the P/E ratio is the same, the three-year return after buying at different points is different, so the same P/E There are many different points on the vertical line.
Although one or two points can not be seen alone, but as a whole, this picture can reveal a lot of information. The most obvious feature of
is that the trend of the whole graph is inclined to the lower right.
means that the higher the P/E ratio at the time of purchase, the lower the investment yield. It can be seen that when buying at a price-earnings ratio of 15 times or more, all the yields of holding for three years are negative, and the probability of making money is 0.
And now the P/E ratio of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index is about 14.9. In other words, at least historical experience shows that the profitability of buying the CSI 300 at this time and holding it for three years is not good.
If we extend the investment horizon,Increase from 3 years to 5 years. It can be seen that the trend has not changed, but the scatter chart has improved overall.
The two pictures are combined together, and the effect is more obvious.
In Figure 3, the red scatter points are the annualized rate of return of holding for 5 years, and the blue scatter points are the annualized rate of return of holding for 3 years, and the red is clearly Point, almost the overall increase clockwise by 15 degrees, the points that did not make money before, made money at once.
The most obvious thing is that when you buy at a price-earnings ratio of 25 times, you will lose money after holding it for 3 years, but once you extend the holding time to 5 years, almost all of it is profitable.
2. The return rate that can be obtained by investing in CSI 500 (small and medium-cap stocks) at different times
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In the period of holding for 3 years,It also shows a gradual decline in the profit-making effect of buying at high price-earnings ratios. The current price-earnings ratio of CSI 500 is around 27 times.
From historical data, it can be expected that after holding it for three years, an annualized 10% annualized rate of return can still be expected. This is why the small and medium-cap stocks in my portfolio account for a relatively high position.
In the same way, if the period is extended to 5 years, the center of return will move up as a whole. And all the data has entered the first quadrant. This means that after 2010, I bought the CSI 500 at any time and held it for 5 years without losing money.
Actually, the above conclusions summarized from historical data are what I have always emphasized. As long as the purchase is cheap, the stock investment can still be a good one through long-term holding Rate of return. A 10% annualization can at least kill many wealth management products.
Of course, it must be built on the premise that the investment target will not die. This is what needs to be discussed when investing in actively managed funds and index funds.
If you have friends around,If you are confused about the potential yield of investing in stocks, please forward this article to him.
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