As we all know, Dutch ASML company is the world's largest and most advanced front-door lithography machine manufacturer, with a market share of more than 90%, especially EUV lithography machines, which is the only one that can produce them. Whether it is TSMC, Samsung or Intel , these top foundry giants rely on ASML's lithography equipment.
This is enough to see the position of ASML in the semiconductor market. However, since its production line uses more than 55% of the US accessories and technology, ASML does not have absolute say in the shipment of EUV equipment. Faced with the rules of the US restricting EUV shipment to the mainland market, ASML is unwilling to accept it, but she can only choose to comply.
But unexpectedly, in order to further restrict the development of China's chip industry, the United States has once again put pressure on Netherlands , hoping that ASML can tighten the mainstream demand for lithography machine shipment range. Simply put, it is required that ASML and DUV lithography machines are no longer used by Chinese chip manufacturers.
However, the US seems to have kicked the "iron board" this time. Regarding the increasingly unblocked requirements of the United States, ASML directly poured "cold water" into the United States, saying that China is an important participant in the global semiconductor market. If it is not sold to them, the global supply chain will be forced to be interrupted.
According to public information, from last year to the present, ASML has exported a total of 78 lithography machines to the mainland market, with DUVs being the majority. This has greatly promoted the development of our domestic chips, and at the same time, it has also guaranteed ASML's revenue and profits and .
When it cannot export EUV lithography machines, DUV lithography machines have become the key to supporting ASML's revenue in the mainland market. If even DUVs are not sold, ASML will face unbearable losses, and its investment layout in the Chinese market for many years will lose its significance.
is also precisely because of this. After the news of the US pressure on the Netherlands, ASML publicly stated that it is a European company. Except for EUV lithography machines, other equipment does not rely too much on US technology. The impact of the rules set by the US on ASML is limited, and it will continue to export lithography machine products to China.
It is obvious that ASML is not willing to become a "tool" for the US to sanction Chinese companies. And just recently, ASML has once again received major news. According to media reports, at the Investors Day meeting on November 11, ASML CEO Peter announced that in the next three years, the production capacity of (deep ultraviolet) DUV lithography machine will be increased to 600 units!
In the eyes of the outside world, ASML is "against" with the United States. The reason is very clear. ASML has greatly increased the production capacity of DUV lithography machines, mainly to better serve the Chinese market.
You should know that DUV lithography machines are mainly used in mature chip manufacturing processes. After the domestic market has experienced "bottlenecks", they have begun to build cores on a large scale. For example, SMIC has invested more than 170 billion yuan in the past two years, and has built 12-inch wafer fabs in many places such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin.
This means that the domestic demand for DUV lithography equipment will increase significantly, and it can even be said to be the world's largest consumer market for DUV lithography machines.
ASML As a commercial company, it is naturally unwilling to miss this huge "cake". Moreover, domestic research and development of lithography machines has been underway, and ASML is also very clear that if you don’t seize the time to ship, once the domestic DUV lithography machine is landed and mass-produced, it may have no chance.
In addition, due to the overcapacity of advanced chips, the utilization rate of EUV lithography machines has been declining since 2022, and even TSMC has shut down some EUV lithography machines. More importantly, in the post-Moore era, many chip manufacturers began to focus on the chip integration technology "track" to control costs to reduce their dependence on EUV lithography machines.
Among them, TSMC and 19 chip giants including Samsung and Synopsys have established a 3D Fabric alliance; domestic packaging manufacturer Tongfuwei has also broken through the 5nm "core particle" technology; there are also Micron and AMD, which have built high-performance chips without using EUV. In other words, EUV lithography machines will no longer be the only way to manufacture high-end chips in the future.
Faced with this situation, if ASML wants to consolidate its industry position and stabilize its revenue and profits, it must increase the scale of shipments and speed up the shipping pace of the Chinese market. Because we have a huge and mature chip consumption system, ASML has no choice but to "fight" with it even if the United States continues to put pressure on it.
Although ASML's decision to increase the production capacity of lithography machines is good news for domestic chips, we cannot take it lightly, and we must not relax the research and development of domestic lithography machines. As Chinese academician Ni Guangnan said, core technology cannot be bought. If you want not to be "bottled", you must "have food in your hands". The reason why
ASML has ignored the pressure from the United States to also promote our shipment of DUV lithography machines is not only driven by interests, but also the continuous breakthroughs of domestic lithography machines have also played a positive role in promoting them. The same goes for EUV lithography machines. Once we have the strength to manufacture, the so-called "blockade" will inevitably disappear. What do you think about this?
