If any industry is becoming more and more prosperous in the current epidemic situation, it is undoubtedly the semiconductor industry. If it continues to be subdivided, it is undoubtedly the chip foundry industry. Due to the epidemic, both adult work and minors’ study have all gone online, which not only has led to the need to purchase a large number of servers, but consumers also need to purchase a large number of consumer electronics, such as smartphones, tablets, PCs, laptops, , etc., which undoubtedly puts forward explosive demands for chips.
. The production of chips will naturally fall on the chip foundry, which makes chip foundry make a fortune. As the leader of the chip foundry industry, TSMC is naturally the big part of the profit, which makes TSMC's market value once exceeded US$700 billion, almost the sum of the three chip giants, Intel , AMD and Nvidia.
But the explosive market demand is undoubtedly not long-lasting. First of all, the smartphone industry has encountered a cold winter, and Android phones have cut orders. According to analysts' predictions, Android phones will be cut by 170 million. In terms of , Apple , not only did not adopt the latest 3-nanometer process this year, but even the A16, which uses 4-nanometer process, can only be enjoyed by Pro models. There is no doubt that TSMC has suffered a lot of losses. The 3-nanometer production line is not only forced to produce 5-nanometer chips, but also 4 EUV lithography machines will be forced to shut down.
At this moment, good news came from our China chip industry. I believe everyone knows that chips are currently developing towards advanced packaging such as chips and stacking. The purpose is to not adopt advanced processes, but also to allow chips to have powerful performance. At present, the global chip giants are starting to take action, and Apple has adopted advanced packaging technology to launch the M1 Ultra, and the same is true for the M2 Ultra in the future.
According to media reports, my country's advanced packaging company Changdian Technology has become the world's third largest advanced packaging giant. Its revenue this year has reached about 15 billion yuan. Moreover, among the top ten advanced packaging companies in the world, Chinese companies account for 8. We have also achieved localization of the advanced packaging lithography machine used in advanced packaging, all of which are at the international leading level.
In contrast, although TSMC has obtained a large number of EUV lithography machines, as mentioned above, some EUV lithography machines have been shut down, and now there is bad news. Its 7-nanometer and 6-nanometer poor energy utilization rate has dropped sharply, and the decline has been severely. TSMC urgently announced that it had stopped the construction of Kaohsiung 's 7-nanometer factory, focusing on the 28-nanometer process.
We have talked about before that although advanced processes such as 7 nanometers have been discussed and are at the focus of public opinion, from the perspective of the entire chip market, most chips still use mature processes, especially the 28-nanometer process is more widely used, but TSMC has been vigorously expanding advanced production capacity. On the contrary, SMIC has focused all its energy on 28-nanometer expansion in recent years, and the progress is already very considerable. The typical application scenario of
28 nanometer process is automobiles, especially electric vehicle . There are many types of chips required. This is a broader market than smartphones. Obviously, TSMC started to realize it and increased its efforts to expand the production capacity of 28 nanometer process, but there are voices in the West that TSMC is already late.
TSMC has missed the golden period of expanding the 28-nanometer process. It can only be said that fish and bear's paw cannot have both. TSMC has put most of its investment in advanced processes. The investment in capacity construction of advanced processes is much more than that of mature processes. After all, TSMC has limited financial resources, and even if it starts to expand the 28-nanometer production capacity now, it will take time. Moreover, TSMC has not expanded the 28-nanometer production capacity, and only plans to expand one factory in Kaohsiung.
Looking at TSMC's revenue and financial report, automotive chips account for a small proportion of TSMC's revenue, so even if TSMC masters 28nm technology, its production capacity is not much, and it is indeed impossible to make up for the short term.TSMC itself optimistically estimates that it will take at least 9 months if its advanced process capacity utilization rate recovers. Just as TSMC's financial report just released, its revenue in September has declined month-on-month, and TSMC's market value has also shrunk from its peak of more than US$700 billion to its current US$338.5 billion.
can only be said that there is no ever-winning general. With the continued development of the advanced packaging industry, TSMC's competitors will take away more shares, and TSMC's highlight moment will eventually become history. What do you think about this? If you feel it is reasonable, thank you for your likes and reading.
