Since March 5, international oil prices have plummeted, the biggest drop since the Gulf War in 1991. At 24:00 on March 17, a new round of pricing window for domestic oil prices is about to open. Many analysts predict that this round of oil price adjustments will hit the largest drop since the new pricing mechanism was introduced in 2013. It is estimated that 92 gasoline retail prices may drop by 0.74 per liter. yuan.
International oil prices hit the biggest drop in nearly 30 years
The OPEC+ conference was held in Vienna on March 5. The conference was postponed for 5 hours and ended in a hurry in only 50 minutes. In the end, no agreement on production reduction was reached, and the international oil price started on that day. Plummet. Jin Lianchuang analyst Wang Jing said that as of March 6, the WTI April crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 4.62 US dollars to 41.28 US dollars per barrel, a 10.07% drop, the largest since November 2014 One-day decline; the Brent May crude oil futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed down 4.72 US dollars to 45.27 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 9.44%, the largest one-day decline since December 2008.
Subsequently, Russia and Saudi Arabia successively expressed their views on the oil problem. International oil prices fell sharply. On March 9, the WTI April crude oil spot contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down by 10.15 US dollars to 31.13 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 24.59%. .
The Brent May crude oil futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange closed down $10.91 to $34.36 per barrel, a drop of 24.10%. The two major international futures both set a decline of more than 24%, setting a record for the largest one-day decline since the Gulf War in January 1991.
92 gasoline will "break five" and hit the biggest drop.
Affected by international oil prices, the domestic reference crude oil change rate continues to drop. Zhuo Chuang Consulting analyst Zhang Jinyi said that as of March 16, there is only one working day left before the price adjustment window. Based on the current crude oil price level, Zhuo Chuang's estimated crude oil average level is still above the floor price of $40 per barrel, which is consistent with Conditions for price adjustment by the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism. Therefore, at 24:00 on March 17, the domestic retail price of refined oil products may be reduced as scheduled, and this is the biggest drop since the introduction of the new pricing mechanism in 2013.
According to Zhuo Chuang Information's calculations, as of the close of March 13, the domestic reference crude oil change rate for the 9th working day was -24.12%, corresponding to a reduction of 940 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel, which translates to an increase in price, and 92 gasoline fell by 0.74 yuan/ The price adjustment window is at 24:00 on March 17.
Due to the suspension of domestic oil price adjustments on March 3, according to the adjusted oil price at 24:00 on February 18, the retail price of 92 gasoline in Dalian was 6.23 yuan per liter. If the forecast data of the analysis agency can be implemented, the retail price of 92 gasoline will drop by 0.74 yuan per liter. After the oil price adjustment at 24:00 on March 17, the zero price of 92 gasoline in Dalian will drop to 5.49 yuan per liter, and it will be filled with 50 liters of 92 gasoline. , The owner can save 37 yuan.
Jinlianchuang analyst Bi Haibing believes that in the future, it is difficult for the oil market to get rid of the negative constraints of supply and demand in the short term. International crude oil futures prices may remain low and fluctuate and do not rule out further drops. As crude oil continues to fall in the market outlook, the average comprehensive crude oil price will drop below the floor price of $40/barrel. After entering the next round of pricing cycle, the floor price will open, and the retail price adjustment window for refined oil will close on March 31. This will be a high probability event.
The Peninsula Morning Post, 39 Degree Video Chief Correspondent Wang Bowen
