The latest data from the China Passenger Car Association shows that in September, the retail sales of domestic narrow passenger cars continued to increase significantly by 21.5% year-on-year to 1.922 million vehicles. However, the month-on-month increase of 2.8% was at a historical low in the same period in the past 20 years, which made people feel that "the off-season is not light and the peak season is not prosperous."
But in fact, that's not the case.
Indeed, generally speaking, with the peak sales season approaching by the end of the year, sales in September should increase significantly compared with August, but the situation this year cannot be simply compared.
As we all know, stimulated by some series of national and local policies such as halving the purchase tax of , such as halving the purchase tax of , the original June to August, which was the off-season for the auto market, remained at a high of more than 1.8 million vehicles this year. Among them, June and July both set a record high in the same period. The 1.871 million vehicles in August were also the same as the highest record set in 2017, and 1.922 million vehicles were also the best results in the same period since 2018. Therefore, the retail market in September has actually entered the peak sales season at the end of the year.
After several consecutive months of significant growth, the cumulative retail sales in the first nine months of this year have reached 14.875 million vehicles, and the year-on-year growth rate continued to expand to 2.4% after turning positive in August.
After entering the fourth quarter, the transaction volume of the retail market will continue to rise. Since the Chinese New Year is early this year, the car purchase boom before the festival will be advanced to December. The purchase tax halving policy and the new energy subsidies and license favorable policies in some regions will expire in December. Therefore, the total retail sales this year will return to more than 21 million vehicles again, and may even reach 22 million vehicles.
FAW-Volkswagen champion throne may not be guaranteed
Just as the final result of the overall auto market will change certainly due to the performance in the fourth quarter, the top rankings of auto companies and various market segments will also be quite different from the situation in the first 9 months this year.
For example, in the list of car companies, although FAW-Volkswagen is still ranked first in the cumulative sales list with the advantage of nearly 200,000 vehicles, given the BYD behind it, since the beginning of this year, with the increase in production capacity, the enrichment of product matrix, and the continuous explosion of the new energy market, sales have been rising steadily and setting new highs, and the former may be pulled down from the championship throne at the end of the year.
htmlIn September, with a new record of 191,000 vehicles, BYD has become the number one car company in China for the third consecutive month. Not only that, the total sales in the first nine months also reached 1.158 million vehicles, and FAW-Volkswagen became the only car company on the list to exceed one million vehicles, far ahead of other car companies. From this point of view, BYD will at least win the title of second place in the year at the end of this year. If the trend continues to be high, it may have the chance to become the first independent car company to win the championship in the retail market.
Of course, not only BYD and FAW-Volkswagen, but also the annual rankings of SAIC Volkswagen and Changan Auto and Geely Auto may also change. Judging from the total sales volume in the first nine months of this year, Changan Automobile is only 12,000 less than SAIC Volkswagen. As long as you work harder in the future, you may be able to achieve a counterattack. At the same time, as the champion of the independent camp last year, the sales of Geely may also experience explosive growth in the next three months, and the situation may also be different at that time.
In addition to BYD, Changan and Geely, Chery Auto, as the leader of the independent camp, is also worth mentioning. September is the first time since 2011. Chery has once again entered the top ten of the retail list for two consecutive months. Judging from the total sales volume, it may exceed the 700,000 vehicle mark for the first time this year.
However, not all the leading automakers' sales are boosting, at least Great Wall Motors is not included.
While BYD, Changan, Geely and Chery continue to climb or at least stabilize at highs, Great Wall's sales in September were still only above 60,000 vehicles, and 12.5% was also the biggest drop in the September list. In addition, the decline of SAIC-GM-Wuling also reached 10.0%. Not only September, the cumulative results of these two are also worrying. If there is no improvement in the fourth quarter, one of these two will definitely not be able to enter the top ten of the year.
BYD Han surpasses Camry
. Judging from the list in the first 9 months, the sedan market is about to usher in quite a change. The most obvious of which is that BYD Han's total sales surpassed Toyota Camry with an advantage of 5,758 units, and BYD Qin will soon replace Volkswagen New Lavida to become the third place in the sedan market.
Originally, shortly after it was launched in 2020, BYD Han set a new record of three: the ranking of independent models in the mid-to-high-end market, the annual sales volume of China's first model exceeded 100,000 vehicles and the average selling price, bringing people a lot of surprises.
Unexpectedly, after the DM-i model was added in April this year, Han's sales volume was even more unstoppable, and it has maintained more than 20,000 units since May, significantly ahead of the Toyota Camry and the Honda Accord. In September, Han even exceeded 30,000 vehicles, not only surpassing the Camry's highest record of 28,000 vehicles set by the 2021 December 2021, but also surpassing the Tesla Model 3 at its peak delivery period with the advantage of 518 vehicles.
With this performance, Han's cumulative sales in the first nine months also surpassed Camry, becoming the single-month and cumulative double champion in the mid-to-high-end market for the first time, which will once again set a new record for independent models in the mid-to-high-end car market.
While Han is constantly making efforts, Qin, who has been in the same school, is not willing to be outdone. He has become the third place in the car market again after August, and he is only one different from the champion Wuling Hongguang MINI. In other words, if 2 more cars are sold, Qin will become the top of the car market in September.
Not only that, after maintaining its 37,000 vehicles for two consecutive months, Qin's cumulative sales are only 5 less than Volkswagen's New Lavida. However, there is no need to be too regretful. As early as October and in November, Qin will surpass it in a single month and cumulative list.
In addition, although BYD's small pure electric car dolphin, currently only ranks outside the top ten on the overall list, with its rapid development momentum, it is very likely to enter the top ten by the end of the year.
was just a little disappointed while feeling happy for the BYD legion, because in addition to the three cars under BYD and Wuling Hongguang MINI, the only independent sedan is left in the list of Changan Yidong . Judging from the sales volume in the first 9 months, the car may soon disappear from the list.
As for joint venture sedans, except for Honda Accord, Toyota Camry and BMW 5 Series , the cumulative sales of other models are falling. Judging from the September list, Nissan Sylphy, as the leader in the sedan market, was actually squeezed to third place. This is the first time it has fallen out of the top two places this year. Although this may have the impact of supply chain shortage, it also reflects that its current position in the top spot in the sedan market is already in danger.
SUV market champion locks in
In the meantime, the annual list of the SUV market will also undergo a lot of changes.
Specifically, although the sales of Tesla Model Y, which reached its peak delivery period in September, reached 47,000 units, but BYD Song also rose to 46,000 units, only 760 less than the former, which is comparable. In terms of cumulative sales, thanks to the rising performance this year, Song's total sales reached 289,000 units, and Model Y was 219,000 units. Song also has a great advantage.
Even in the fourth quarter, after the capacity increase, the Model Y can deliver about 100,000 vehicles, and the gap between the two will change too much. Because Song's sales are likely to reach about 150,000 vehicles, and in the end, he still became the champion of the SUV market this year with his huge advantages.
Some people are happy and some people are worried. The most worrying thing in the SUV market this year is Haval H6, because it not only does not have the chance to be at the top, but it may not even be able to keep the position of the top three. If it weren't for the shortage of overseas supply chains that caused the sales of Honda CR-V in September to drop from more than 20,000 vehicles to 13,000 vehicles, the total sales of the car in the first nine months exceeded the H6.
is just that if the supply chain problem cannot be solved in time, CR-V will not only not exceed H6 to the podium, but may even be surpassed by Changan CS75 behind him.
At the same time, since the current gap between the total sales of Toyota RAV4, Volkswagen Tiguan , Mercedes-Benz GLC, Audi Q5 and Changan CS55 is less than 10,000 units, the list of models in the SUV market this year will also undergo major changes. And because of the aggressive arrival of another SUV under BYD, the Changan CS55 is very likely to be squeezed out of the top 10.
In fact, no matter what the final result is, it means that there will be 3 independent models in the top 5 SUV market this year, while there are only 4 of the top 10, which is 1 less than the same period last year. Therefore, the main car companies still need to continue to make efforts in the SUV market.
From the September list, three new models have joined, namely BYD Tang , Aion Y and BMW X3, both of which have set their best results since the market. According to previous data, Tang's total sales in the first nine months have reached 92,000 vehicles. With the arrival of the peak sales season at the end of the year and the continuous increase in BYD's production capacity, its sales will continue to rise, and may even exceed 20,000 vehicles in December. By then, it may replace Honda Binzhi to enter the annual list.
It can be seen from the beginning of the new energy market that taking advantage of the trend of the new energy market, the most fierce attacks on the joint venture camp this year with main car companies. As the auto market enters the peak sales season and the volume-driven stage of the year-end sales, independent car companies and their models will usher in a big explosion, which will have a huge impact on the ranking of the annual list. Perhaps this year, the championship titles of the car companies and the three major market segments will be won by the independent camp.
