Financial News on October 24:00 tonight, the retail price limit for refined oil will start the 12th increase this year, and it is also the second oil price increase in the second half of this year.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission today, according to the recent changes in oil prices in the international market and the current refined oil price formation mechanism, the retail limit of gasoline and diesel has been increased by 185 yuan and 175 yuan per ton, respectively, and the price increase of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel has been increased by 0.15 yuan, 0.15 yuan and 0.15 yuan respectively.
After the implementation of this price adjustment policy, taking a family car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L as an example, adding a box of No. 92 gasoline will cost about 7.5 yuan more than before, and adding a box of No. 95 gasoline will cost about 7.5 yuan more than before.
After the implementation of this stranded policy, the price adjustment of refined oil in 2022 will show a pattern of "12 rises, 7 falls, 1 stranded". So far, the prices of gasoline and diesel have increased by 1,490 yuan/ton and 1,430 yuan/ton respectively this year, and the price increase of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel have increased by 1.17 yuan, 1.24 yuan and 1.22 yuan respectively.
The next round of refined oil trends and fluctuations are still uncertain
During this round of pricing cycle, the Biden administration in the United States restarted a new round of strategic oil reserve plans and Fed's aggressive hike rate hike policy has intensified the risk of recession in the global economy, and the international crude oil range fluctuated and fell mainly, among which Brent crude oil fell to a two-week low. Although the technical rebound caused by buying on dips during the period and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the price of crude oil briefly higher, the overall fundamentals performed weakly.
Zhuochuang Information analyst Yang Xia pointed out that in the later period, the situation in Eastern Europe has caused concerns about Europe's energy supply in winter and the production cuts of OPEC+ alliance have brought positive support to the international crude oil market. There is limited room for crude oil to decline, but concerns about the decline in global oil demand growth expectations are still lingering, crude oil has started a tug-of-war, and prices may continue the range fluctuation.
Zhuochuang Information expects that the next round of retail prices of refined oil will start positively, but the fluctuation range is relatively small, and the final direction and fluctuation range of retail prices are still uncertain. The next round of price adjustment window for is 24:00 on November 7.
The United States has not given substantial negative measures to suppress oil prices
U.S. President Biden said last Wednesday that the United States will sell 15 million barrels of crude oil from SPR by the end of the year, aiming to prevent oil prices from soaring after OPEC+ oil-producing countries decide to cut oil production.
The reduction and more release plans of strategic oil reserves have raised concerns among some analysts who pointed out that the purpose of strategic oil reserves is not to control gasoline prices, but to ensure the country's oil supply in emergencies.
As of today's press release, WTI crude oil futures delivered in December are now at $84.17 per barrel, down 0.98% during the day; Brent crude oil futures delivered in December are now at $92.43 per barrel, down 1.16% during the day.
Goldman Sachs said in a report on Thursday that the Biden administration plans to continue to release strategic oil reserves (SPRs) "as appropriate" to lower retail prices, and there is limited downside space judging from the current crude oil price level. Goldman Sachs said, "We found that increasing strategic oil reserve sales is the most likely action, although it still depends on the price, and such a release may only have a modest impact on oil prices (less than $5 per barrel)." Goldman Sachs said retail gasoline prices may need to be higher than current levels to justify such releases, adding that once the political obstacles to the U.S. November midterm elections are overcome, the threshold for release may rise toward crude oil prices $125 per barrel, or retail gasoline prices $5 per gallon. An Jing, a researcher at
, said that the United States did not provide substantial negative measures to suppress oil prices, and the impact of releasing strategic reserves is very limited, so oil prices fell first and then rose. weekend news, the United States may set the Russian oil price ceiling above US$60 per barrel, which is higher than what was said before, and is closer to Russia's current spot transaction price, and the final impact will depend on which countries will comply with the price ceiling.
Both supply and demand are weak, and fundamental positives continue to compete with macro negatives, and oil prices will remain volatile in the short term.Low inventory and low idle production capacity, so oil prices support is strong, but the upward trend of oil prices still requires stronger driving force, such as OPEC continues to reduce production, inventory continues to decline, and Russia's production cuts exceed expectations. In the medium term, China's epidemic prevention policy will be marginally relaxed next year, and the 23-year H2 overseas interest rate hike cycle is expected to end. OPEC+ continues to limit production and price support, and supply and demand will be more likely to be tight next year, especially in the second half of the year.
