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, September national passenger car market review
Retail: In September 2022, the passenger car market retail reached 1.922 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%, a fast growth; in September, retail grew by 2.8%, and the month-on-month growth rate was at a historical low in the same period in the past 20 years. From January to September, a total of 14.875 million vehicles were sold, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year and a net increase of 355,000 vehicles, of which 1.43 million vehicles were sold in June to September, with a huge contribution to the increase.
In September this year, the spread of the new crown epidemic in all parts of the country continued to be effectively curbed. 28 provinces across the country reported 5,516 confirmed cases in September, a decrease of more than half from 12,093 in 28 provinces in August; 29 provinces across the country reported 25,040 asymptomatic cases in September, a significant decrease from 37,366 in 29 provinces in August. Although the number of infections decreased month-on-month in August, the main epidemic area in August was Hainan, not a major province for automobile consumption; in September, the epidemic area spread to several provinces, and there were major provinces for automobile consumption, such as Sichuan, so the month-on-month growth rate was slightly slower. The epidemic still needs to pay attention to the overall auto market.
Due to the continuous improvement of logistics and supply chain after the epidemic in May and abundant channel inventory, these have effectively and stably promoted the growth of the auto market. Under the ultra-low base of chip cut off supply of last year, the national passenger car retail sales increased by 21.5% year-on-year in September, slightly lower than the growth rate of 29% in August, among which the preferential policies for car purchase tax gradually showed results.
09 The sales promotion intensity of the auto market remained high in September, and mainstream auto companies have added discount activities to make up for the sales losses caused by the epidemic in the early stage and strive for the best results of the expected quarterly goals.
htmlIn September, 290,000 luxury cars were sold, an increase of 45% year-on-year and 15% month-on-month. The policy of halving the car purchase tax has greatly promoted high-end consumption for consumption upgrading. html In September, 890,000 independent brands sold, an increase of 28% year-on-year and 5% month-on-month. In September, the domestic retail share of domestic brands was 47.0%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points year-on-year; the cumulative share from January to September was 47.0%, an increase of 7.5 percentage points compared with the same period in 2021. In September, the wholesale market share of independent brands was 50.4%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points from the same period last year; the cumulative share of independent brands from January to September was 48.0%, an increase of 5.3 percentage points from the same period in 2021. Independent brands have achieved significant increase in the new energy market, and leading companies have performed well. The share of traditional car companies such as BYD Auto , Changan Auto , Chery Automobile, and Geely Auto has increased significantly. htmlIn September, the mainstream joint venture brands sold 740,000 vehicles, an increase of 8% year-on-year and a decrease of 4% month-on-month. In September, the retail share of German brands was 21.0%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the retail share of Japanese brands was 17.7%, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. The retail share of American brands in the market was 10.7%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year.Export: 250,000 passenger car exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) under the statistics of the China Passenger Association in September, an increase of 85% year-on-year and a decrease of 6% month-on-month. In September, new energy vehicles accounted for 18.4% of the total export volume. In September, exports of independent brands reached 204,000 vehicles, an increase of 88% year-on-year and 13% month-on-month in August; joint ventures and luxury brands exported 34,000 vehicles, an increase of 60% year-on-year. From January to September, a total of 1.59 million passenger cars were exported, an increase of 60%. The export of independent brands to European and American markets and third-world countries has made comprehensive breakthroughs, and the export strategy of international brands in China's base is also increasingly reflected.
production: 9 passenger cars were produced, a year-on-year increase of 37.0% and a month-on-month increase of 11.2%, and the supply guarantee measures in the industrial chain have achieved steady results. Among them, the production of luxury brands increased by 55% year-on-year and 3% month-on-month; the production of joint venture brands increased by 20% year-on-year and 6% month-on-month; the production of independent brands increased by 47% year-on-year and 18% month-on-month. From January to September, the production of automakers reached 16.865 million vehicles, an increase of 18.0% year-on-year.
9 The main enterprises have strongly increased their output in September, with BYD Auto, FAW-Volkswagen and Shangtong Wuling all achieving a month-on-month growth of more than 17%. In August, power was limited due to the continuous high temperature and low rainfall, and in September, the production of passenger cars with Changan and Changan increased by 85% month-on-month in August.
Wholesale: 9 wholesale sales of manufacturers were 2.293 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 32.0% and a month-on-month increase of 9.4%. Driven by the new energy market, some automakers performed significantly differently. The wholesale sales of manufacturers from January to September reached 16.699 million vehicles, an increase of 14.4% year-on-year.
BYD Auto, FAW Volkswagen and Chery Automobile, which are leading sales of manufacturers, are also the top three in terms of growth compared with September last year. GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota also have strong growth.
Inventory: html's production and sales in September were not as smooth as in August, forming a driving production and sales trend with manufacturers' output higher than wholesale of 60,000 vehicles and domestic wholesale of manufacturers' 13 vehicles higher than retail sales. From May to September, the growth of by manufacturers' wholesale in laid the foundation for strong retail growth at the end of the year.
Since the fourth quarter of 2021, manufacturers' inventory has been quickly replenished, with a total of nearly 170,000 vehicles replenished from January to September 2022, of which the inventory replenished from May to September. Since the purchase tax halving policy was implemented in June, the increase in manufacturers' inventory reserves has contributed significantly since May. In September, manufacturers' inventory increased by 60,000 units month-on-month, and cumulatively increased by 170,000 units from January to September 2021, while inventories of manufacturers fell by 300,000 units, and this year's inventory improved significantly. In September, channel inventory increased by 130,000 units month-on-month, and from January to September, channel inventory increased by 230,000 units, a strong contrast from the decrease of 900,000 units from January to September 2021.
There is serious shortage of stocks under the epidemic in the world. It is a rare achievement for China's auto market inventory to return to medium and high levels, laying a stable situation for exports and domestic sales. Due to the guaranteed inventory, terminal retail in early September has significantly strengthened under the promotion of policies, and exports of domestic brand passenger cars also hit a record high of 204,000 in September.
New Energy: 9 wholesale sales of new energy passenger cars reached 675,000, a year-on-year increase of 94.9% and a month-on-month increase of 6.2%. After the introduction of the halving of the car purchase tax policy, new energy vehicles were not only not affected, but continued to improve month-on-month, exceeding expectations. From January to September, 4.341 million new energy passenger cars were wholesale, an increase of 115.4% year-on-year. In September, the retail sales of new energy passenger cars reached 611,000 units, an increase of 82.9% year-on-year and 14.7% month-on-month, forming a trend of upward trend from January to September. From January to September, 3.877 million new energy passenger cars were sold domestically, an increase of 113.2% year-on-year.
In the new energy vehicle market, the improvement in supply and the expectation of rising gas prices have brought about a hot market. The rise in oil prices and the lock in electricity prices have driven the performance of electric vehicle orders. The month-on-month trends of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles in September were significantly driven by policies. Local governments have issued policies to encourage consumption, and the production of mainstream automakers has continued to rise, changing the off-season pattern and further driving the booming auto market in September.
) Wholesale: 9 new energy vehicle manufacturers' penetration rate wholesale 29.4%, an increase of 9.5 percentage points from the penetration rate of 19.9% in September 2021. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of independent brands was 47.9%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 29.1%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles of mainstream joint venture brands was only 3.9%. In September, the wholesale sales of pure electric vehicles were 507,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 76.3%; the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 168,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 186.4%. In September, sales of B-class electric vehicles were 139,000, a year-on-year increase of 58% and a month-on-month increase of 3%, accounting for 27% of the pure electric share. The economical electric vehicle market of A00+A0 in the pure electric market is rising, with A00-class wholesale sales of 122,000 vehicles, a decrease of 5% month-on-month, accounting for 24% of the pure electric vehicle; A0-class wholesale sales of 101,000 vehicles, accounting for 20% of the pure electric vehicle; A-class electric vehicles account for 26% of the pure electric vehicle; B-class electric vehicle sales are still the leader.
) Retail: html The domestic retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in 29 was 31.8%, an increase of 11 percentage points from the penetration rate of 21.1% in September 2021. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among independent brands was 55.2%; the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among luxury cars was 29.7%; while the penetration rate of new energy vehicles among mainstream joint venture brands was only 4.2%. Judging from the monthly domestic retail share, the retail share of mainstream independent brand new energy vehicles in September was 67%, an increase of 9.2 percentage points year-on-year; the share of joint venture brand new energy vehicles was 5.7%, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points year-on-year; the share of new forces was 14.6%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points year-on-year; the share of Tesla was 12.7%, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points.
) Export: html In September, 2018, 44,000 new energy passenger cars were exported. With the support of the policy of resuming work and production under the epidemic, Chinese new energy product brands are increasingly abroad. With the continuous improvement of their recognition overseas and the improvement of their service network, the market prospects continue to improve. In September, the new energy exports of various auto companies were as follows: 15,509 SAIC passenger cars, 7,736 BYD automobiles, 5,522 SAIC-GM-Wuling 4,123 Geely Auto, 2,364 Shenlong Auto, 1,583 html, Dongfeng EasyGet 1,419 Dongfeng Xiaokang 1,266 html, Skyworth Auto, 1,149 Great Wall Motor, 796 Aizhi Auto, 715 Dongfeng passenger cars, 483 FAW Hongqi, 475 FAW Auto, 404 java motor, and exports of new forces have also gradually started recently.
) Car companies: 9 new energy passenger car market hit a record high, BYD Auto's pure electric and plug-in hybrid dual drive strategy consolidated the leading position of new energy in its own brand; traditional car companies represented by Chery Group and GAC Group performed quite outstandingly in the new energy sector. In terms of product , as independent car companies develop multiple lines on the new energy route, the market base continues to expand, and 15 companies have made wholesale sales of manufacturers exceeding 10,000 vehicles (1 month-on-month decrease and 7 year-on-year increase), accounting for 83.2% of the total number of new energy passenger cars. Among them: BYD Auto 20,0973, Tesla China 83,135, SAIC-GM-Wuling 52,377, Geely Auto 39,227, GAC Aion 30,016, Changan Auto 28,574, SAIC Passenger Vehicle 23,433, Chery 20,508, Nezha Auto 18,005, Ideal Auto 11,531, Leopard Auto 11,039, NIO 10,878, FAW Volkswagen 10,770, Great Wall Motor 10,368, and Jinkang New Energy 10,101.
) New Force: 9 new forces retail share 13.5%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4 percentage points; Nezha, Ideal, Zero Run, NIO , Xiaopeng , WM Motor and other new forces still have strong sales year-on-year and month-on-month performance, especially Nezha, Zero Run and other second camps, which is also an advantage of the segmented market track. Among the mainstream joint venture brands, Volkswagen North and South are leading the way, with 16,383 new energy vehicles wholesale, accounting for 51% of the mainstream joint venture pure electric. Volkswagen's firm electrification transformation strategy has begun to show results. Other joint ventures and luxury brands are still waiting to be put into operation.
) general mix: 9, 79,998 passenger cars wholesale in ordinary hybrid passenger cars, a year-on-year increase of 39%, and a month-on-month period. Among them, there are Toyota 50,638, Honda 15,872, Dongfeng passenger cars 5,145, GAC passenger cars 2,988, Geely Auto 2,517, Dongfeng Nissan 1,437, and Lynk & Co 1,259. The independent brand of hybrid power is gradually strengthening in its cultivation.
. National passenger car market outlook in October 2022
1 October has 18 days of working days, one day more than the working days in October last year. Some car companies have also adjusted their production pace this year, which is conducive to production increase. At present, fuel vehicle inventory is gradually increasing, production constraints have improved, and the problem of poor delivery of best-selling models has gradually eased.
There are fewer activities that gather popularity in the auto market such as recent auto show. Consumers are not enthusiastic about traveling and shopping, and they mainly rely on natural customer growth. Travel has been blocked in some areas due to the impact of the epidemic, and the traffic flow of stores has been disturbed to a certain extent. However, since schools in some areas have notified that the National Day holiday will be shortened to three days in September, some order demand will be postponed to the subsequent months accordingly.
As the weather turns colder and autumn harvest is completed, the enthusiasm for car purchases in rural areas will gradually be released, and the market for new energy vehicles and mid- and low-end fuel vehicles will gradually heat up.
The charm of new automobile products continues to improve. From January to September 2022, a total of 439 fuel models have been modified and replaced, of which the average monthly facelift or replacement models from January to May is 42, 48 in June, 53 in July, 82 in August, and 44 in September. From July to September, some models have completed intensive modifications, increased configuration and price reduction, optimized appearance and enhanced intelligence, such as standard L2 assisted driving system and equipped with an intelligent cockpit, which greatly enhances the attractiveness of the product.
From the perspective of real estate, although there are recent positive news such as strong replacement and interest rate cuts, the consumption of the real estate market is still extremely not hot on the National Day, and low-tier cities are still in the stage of digesting inventory. Therefore, the consumption confidence in the related industrial chains is not strong, and the short-term consumption confidence in the auto market is not much promoted.
With the decline in crude oil production caused by OPEC crude oil production, and the cooling of the world economy brought about by Fed interest rate hike , China's export market will be difficult to continue the hot situation in the previous period under the influence of the high base level in the past, and the pulling effect on the auto market will weaken.
As the implementation of the halving policy for car purchase tax has entered the countdown stage, potential consumers' attention to buying cars has increased significantly, while car prices are still at a low level, and consumers' urgency to buy cars is not high. Car prices may enter a period of promotional contraction in October as usual. Sales volume will continue to rise at the end of the year before the exit of future policies to further reduce the promotional efforts, so October is the best time to buy a car.
. China's high-end new energy exports are obvious in terms of characteristics of new energy
China's automobile exports showed explosive growth in 2022, basically maintaining a level of around US$15 billion before 2020, rising to US$32.3 billion in 2021, and reaching US$31.4 billion from January to August 2022. Judging from the average price of automobile exports, the average price in 2018 was US$12,900, which was gradually increased, and it was US$16,400 in 2022, and it reached US$18,900 in August 2022. The main reason for export growth is the surge in exports of new energy vehicles, and the number and average price of exports have increased strongly.
The average export price of gasoline vehicles is basically maintained at the level of around US$12,000, diesel vehicles are at the level of around US$20,000, and plug-in hybrids are currently maintained at US$29,000. The average export price of pure electric vehicles has increased significantly, from US$2,000 in 2018 to US$11,000 in 2020, to US$19,900 in 2022, and reached a good level of US$25,800 in August.
Recently, the RMB exchange rate against the euro has appreciated rapidly, from 1 euro: 7.61 yuan in September 2021 to 1 euro: 6.92 yuan, and the RMB appreciated 9% against the euro. With the rapid progress of independent brand new energy vehicles technology, new Chinese independent brand automakers have recently entered the European market with high profile, and companies such as BYD Auto have also increased their expansion in overseas markets such as Japan. This has also fully utilized the advantages of China's electric vehicles' industrial chain and achieved an improvement in export level, price stability and quality, which is conducive to expanding the market scale and driving the transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry.
. The trend of complete vehicles being king will inevitably return to
With the release of the interim report of listed companies, the performance of lithium mine and battery companies are generally good, especially the performance of lithium mine companies is super strong. The net profit margin of leading companies' lithium mine turnover is around 70%, and the profit margin of upstream battery companies is around 8%, while the profit margin of vehicle companies is around 5%. The profit of the automobile industry is already relatively low in the downstream manufacturing industry. The current madness in the lithium mining industry today is mainly due to the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry and the enhanced resource mismatch formed by the enhanced expectations, and also the opportunities brought by environmental protection.
But in the future, it is inevitable that vehicle companies will become the king, and vehicle companies must be the "chain length" of the industrial chain. After the whole vehicle is integrated with the key industrial chain, the pricing power will continue to increase, and parts do not have continuous pricing power for the industrial chain. Even those vehicle companies that cannot be made by chips are the characteristics of the whole vehicle as the king. Battery companies will inevitably face various constraints from vehicle companies, such as making some batteries and core components, and purchasing some parts externally.
In the future, if a company that is engaged in new energy vehicle is profitable, the ability to control the industrial chain is very important. Especially battery products must be controlled by their own hands. Similar to companies that make fuel vehicles must control the engine, otherwise they will be subject to battery suppliers. Batteries are the biggest cost of electric vehicles, and their performance structure has a great impact on key indicators such as charging and discharging. At the same time, whether to manufacture and control the battery industry is related to a series of industries such as after-sales, recycling, and reuse.
Vehicle companies pay the most attention to consumer interests. Only by safeguarding consumer interests and achieving the best cost and the most economical model to meet user needs can the scale of the auto market achieve sustainable development.The characteristics of the
industrial chain are related to both the upstream supply chain and the terminal market, and are in the middle of bargaining at both ends, so how to maintain profits is relatively complex; and profits will directly affect corporate development and promote the sustainability of consumption. Therefore, the characteristics of complete vehicles as king in the fuel vehicle era will surely repeat themselves in the electric vehicle era. At present, outstanding companies such as BYD Auto and Tesla have shown such characteristics, and GAC Group, SAIC Group , Great Wall Motors, Geely Automobile and other companies are also starting to make such efforts, and the development of China's automobile industry will be stronger.
. Looking at the combination of distribution channels from consumer electronic channels
With the rapid development of the electric vehicle market, the sales model of electric vehicles has changed from mechanical products following durable consumer goods consumption model. At present, mature and durable consumer goods and traditional cars are basically dominated by diversified distribution models, and the direct sales model cannot become the mainstream model in the auto market. The recent new Apple product is launched, which shows the channel combination characteristics of the world's high-end digital products. Due to the lack of innovation in mobile phones, the market is low and the prices change rapidly. The diversified advantages of channels such as official websites, direct stores, e-commerce platforms, and specialty stores are fully reflected. These channels have obvious differences in the allocation of new product resources, after-sales policies, price changes, etc.
Currently, the electric vehicles market is developing rapidly. Most electric vehicles do not have a complete unsalable elimination cycle, and the future market changes should be faster. Electric vehicle marketing should learn how products that have experienced storms and storms. The direct sales model has huge price rigidity problems, which will inevitably affect sales. Production and scale are the most important, and prices serve sales volume. Therefore, electric vehicle sales channels need to be effectively supplemented and improved. It is a basic guarantee for market sales based on the current offline direct sales, online direct sales, and supermarket stores.
. Increase and exchange are the core growth drivers of the auto market
Due to the recent peak of my country's population and the gradual decrease in the young population, China's auto market has entered a new development period dominated by middle-aged and elderly people. From the Xiali in 2005 to the top sales champion, to the first-class A-class cars such as Lavida and Sylphy after 2010, Wuling Hongguang MINI has become the new sales champion model recently.
With the rise of the second family car and the female car purchase group, the demand for purchases and purchases in the auto market has become the core driving force for the development of the auto market. Years of rapid economic growth have driven the rapid growth of middle-class families in China, and have also driven the accelerated growth of demand for increased purchases and purchases. The debt burden pressure of young people is generally heavy, so tapping the consumption potential of existing middle-aged and middle-aged consumer groups is an opportunity for car companies to develop.
Currently, it is judged that the development potential of young consumer groups is relatively small, and it is not the mainstream development driving force for fuel vehicles. Moreover, the first car of young people is mostly purchased by their parents, so the choice of models is mainly based on mature and stable styles. Therefore, the performance of younger models is not particularly ideal at present, and correspondingly, the ultra-high-speed growth of electrified models and the relatively strong performance of mid-to-high-end cars. The policy of halving the car purchase tax for fuel vehicles under 2.0 liters recently is to adapt to the demand for additional purchases, so it will achieve better results.
Attachment: Recent information collection
*Automotive market scan-2022 issue 39-40 (September 26-October 9)
*Ministry of Public Security Registration and Driver Data Analysis from January to September 2022
*January 2022 China Auto Export Overseas Data Analysis
*Increase and Exchange is the core growth momentum of the car market
*Second-hand car market will enter a strong growth period
*New energy battery market changes analysis
*Relationship analysis of gasoline prices and new energy sales
*Tesla AI What Is the Day
* August 2022 China accounts for 69% of the world's new energy vehicle share
* August 2022 China accounts for 37% of the world's automobile share
* China's automobile exports have obvious characteristics of new energy high-end
* August 2022 Automobile industry revenue increased by 32% profit increased by 1 times profit margin 5.2%
* Auto market scan-2022 issue 38 (September 19-September 25)
* RV Market sales of 7618 units fell by 7% from January to August, and demand is expected to explode
* 3,000 new energy buses increased by 30% in August 2022
* August 2022 New energy special vehicle analysis
* January to August 2022 China Automobile Import Analysis
* August 2022 New energy passenger car regional market analysis
* January to August 2022 China Automobile Export Analysis
* Car Market Scan-2022 Issue 37 (September 13 Day-September 18)
* National passenger car market inventory of 3.37 million units, 52 days in stock
* August 2022 Pickup truck market analysis
* From the Apple mobile channel, see the combination of direct sales and distribution channels
* 2022 The 8th batch of new energy vehicles car-free tax analysis
* August 2022 Automobile production increased by 39%, consumption increased by 16%, 52 square meters new house
* New energy listed companies' annual report indicator tracking
*Auto Market Scan - 2022 Issue 36 (September 5-September 11)
*August Passenger Car Segment Market Model Trend
*Agency Operating System Needs to Accelerate Development
*August Auto Market Trend and Manufacturer Competition Performance Analysis
*National New Energy Passenger Cars Sales in August 630,000 Penetration Rate of 30%
*Analysis of Passenger Car Market Operation Characteristics in August
*Reprint or quote original articles from this official account, please indicate the source.
