Due to changes in the international economic situation, oil prices around the world have fallen again, indirectly causing domestic oil prices to begin to change. On September 21, domestic oil prices adjusted again and ushered in a new round of decline. This time, the oil price change is 95 gasoline, which is expected to return to the 8 yuan era. Small cars used by families can save about 10 yuan by filling the fuel tank at one time.
So, what causes oil prices to fall? Will they continue to fall within the year?
The reason for the decline in oil prices
my country is not an oil exporter, so my country has little impact on international oil prices, but most of my country's oil, natural gas , etc. need to be purchased from abroad, so changes in international oil prices will inevitably affect my country.
One of the reasons for the change in oil prices is that regional conflicts have led to turbulence in the international energy supply market and fluctuations in energy prices. PetroChina is the most basic energy source, the most vulnerable to impact, and the most affected.
Another key reason for the decline in oil this time is that the US dollar rate hike . The United States announced the latest inflation index. Inflation was still as high as 8.3% in August, and the core CPI still maintained high growth. It can be seen that the previous interest rate hikes did not suppress the growth momentum of inflation. In this regard, the Federal Reserve will inevitably increase its interest rate hike again.
Since 2020, the Federal Reserve has printed a large amount of US dollars, which not only pushed up global inflation levels, but also made its own CPI reach its highest level in 40 years, and the prices of basic commodities such as food have risen. The Fed's statement is also clear, and it will curb inflation at any cost. Therefore, after the US CPI was released in August, US stocks fell sharply, and the Fed will continue to raise interest rates in September. The market expressed concerns about the prospects of the global economy, which in turn led to a weakening demand for energy.
How long will oil prices fall?
regional conflicts have a great impact on international oil prices. If the conflict continues, the impact on oil prices will continue, especially for energy powers like Russia, which is an important energy exporter in the world. Uncertainty is still an indispensable factor affecting the rise and fall of oil prices.
At the same time, the Federal Reserve's continued interest rate hike measures seem to be targeting its own country only, but the US dollar is a global currency that will inevitably affect the global economy. As central banks in various countries start hiking interest rates and global inflation remains high, market concerns about the global economic outlook are aggravating, and oil prices are still likely to fall.
Although international oil prices are now on a downward trend, compared with the beginning of the year, the current oil prices are still at a relatively high position. In the short term, this month's Federal Reserve's interest rate hike will cause a global economic slowdown, further weakening the global economy's demand for oil, and oil prices will fall again. However, Bank of America believes that the decline in international oil prices is about to end, and oil prices may break through $100 per barrel by the end of the year.
Domestic oil prices
Domestic oil prices will be affected by international oil prices, with slightly fluctuating ups and downs. my country is the world's largest industrial country. Industrial development has a huge demand for oil. It costs trillions of yuan to import oil every year. 70% of my country's oil needs to be imported, so the impact of international oil prices on domestic oil prices is objective.
After this oil price adjustment, the domestic price of 95 gasoline will return to the 8 yuan era. If you drive a car with a fuel tank capacity of only 50L, then the owner can save about 10 yuan at a time when refueling. Although it seems that there is not much saving at one time, it is also beneficial to ordinary consumers to accumulate a lot.
This adjustment ushered in the seventh decline in domestic oil prices, which is good news for oil vehicle users. However, the fluctuations in domestic oil prices are not completely synchronized with international oil prices, so consumers should be prepared to rise at any time. It is also a good choice to choose new energy transportation when commuting in the city.
