Author: Zhao Xiaofei
Things Think Tank Original
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5G guide the development of the industry involved in the economic and social aspects, 5G module is a typical industry benchmark, it can be said of course falling module prices It is also the process of industry maturity.
According to the latest data from China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, from January to October this year, cumulative shipments of 5G mobile phones in the domestic market reached 124 million units, accounting for 49.4% of total mobile phone shipments. At present, many thousand-yuan 5G mobile phones have been launched, and it can be seen that the cost of 5G mobile phones has begun to drop significantly. However, in the face of a broader industry application market, the industry pays more attention to the cost of 5G modules. The high cost of 5G modules hinders the application of applications. At the recent Global Mobile Broadband Forum held in
, Huawei’s vice chairman Hu Houkun mentioned in his speech that the price of 5G modules will drop significantly in the next few years. The development of the 5G industry involves all aspects of economy and society, and the 5G module is a typical indicator of the development of the industry. It can be said that the process of falling module prices is also the process of industry maturity. The
module is a centralized epitome reflecting the overall industrial ecological maturity
In the author's view, the IoT module is a centralized epitome reflecting the ecological maturity of the entire industry. It mainly plays a role in diluting fixed costs and connecting the industry.
(1) The role of fixed cost dilution
From the perspective of infrastructure, the one-time investment cost of 5G network is huge, and it needs to develop a large number of connections in long-term operation, improve network utilization and obtain connection income, so as to dilute the one-time input cost. The number of IoT modules represents the scale of connections that can be connected to the network, and it also represents the increase in user demand for the network, driving the further improvement of the infrastructure. Therefore, the rapid growth of IoT module shipments and the rapid decline in costs are also signs of the maturity of the 5G network infrastructure.
From the perspective of the underlying chip, also has the same effect. The initial R&D investment of 5G chips is huge, and eventually more shipments will be needed to dilute these costs. When the shipments reach a certain level, the marginal cost of the chips will be smaller, realizing the profit return of the industry. The module is the downstream of the chip, and the chip accounted for the highest proportion of its cost composition. The decline in the price of the module directly reflects the maturity of the chip.
(2) The role of industry linkage
5G is applied to thousands of industries, which means that terminals in all industries need to be connected through 5G, and modules are the core link between the two.
Generally speaking, the Internet of Things module integrates various components such as baseband chips, radio frequency chips, memory chips, capacitors and resistors on a circuit board, and provides standard interfaces. Various industry terminals are quickly implemented by embedding Internet of Things modules. Communication function. The module plays the role of connection, carrying end-to-end communication and data interaction functions, and thus becomes one of the core components of the Internet of Things terminal. Downstream terminal manufacturers and application vendors are often not communication technology experts. When completing a smart terminal or IoT solution, a communication solution that can be quickly implemented is needed. The universal IoT module helps these manufacturers complete communication-related tasks, reducing The threshold for downstream manufacturers to develop and land. The role of modules is inseparable in the digital transformation of various industries in the 5G era. From this perspective, the reduction of 5G module shipments and costs is a process of giving full play to the role of this link. Low-cost 5G modules provide low-cost connection solutions for downstream terminal manufacturers, solution providers and industry users, and promote the prosperity of industry applications. Therefore, various market indicators of modules are also an important manifestation of mature applications.
Looking back at the development process of the Internet of Things industry, in 2016, at the beginning of the NB-IoT standard freezing, the cost of NB-IoT modules was as high as 100 yuan or more. With the joint efforts of all parties in the industry chain, the current NB-IoT module cost has fallen below 20 yuan. , The lowest dropped to 12 yuan. At the same time, the number of NB-IoT connections exceeded 100 million at the beginning of 2020 and entered the channel of accelerated development; similarly, Cat.1, a popular topic of the Internet of Things in 2020, also experienced a rapid decline in module costs. At present, it has reached the level of about 40 yuan, driving the prosperity of Cat.1 applications; the rapid growth of various To C smart hardware shipments is also due to WiFiThe cost of modules has dropped. Currently, the cost of WiFi modules is basically less than RMB 10, and annual shipments of WiFi modules have reached hundreds of millions.
drives 5G module types growth and cost reduction
Huawei’s vice chairman Hu Houkun clearly stated in a speech at the Global Mobile Broadband Forum: The development of 5G industry applications, terminals are a problem that cannot be ignored and cannot become a bottleneck. To solve the problem of terminal ecological prosperity, must increase the types of modules on the one hand, and reduce the price of modules on the other.
Since the release of the first 5G module, in more than two years, more than 20 suppliers around the world have provided more than 60 5G modules and more than 140 industry terminals , including 5G AGV, 5G cameras, 5G drones and 5G inspection robots, etc.
Of course, the types of 5G modules are far from rich. From the perspective of the 4G market, there are currently more than 1,400 4G modules on the market. The maturity of the 5G industry must achieve more types of modules, reaching or even exceeding 4G. The level of the number of modules. At the same time, the cost of 5G modules is also the key to enriching the 5G terminal ecosystem. Huawei has given the forecast data of the cost of 5G modules:
From this forecast data, will reduce the cost of 5G modules to about $100 by the end of this year; and by the end of 2023, the cost of 5G modules will drop Around 20 dollars. At a cost of around US$20, is believed to have more abundant industry terminal forms, and 5G has a higher penetration in industry applications.
5G has been officially commercialized for more than a year. It has not only formed a large number of demonstration applications in multiple industries, but also driven the layout of many module manufacturers. At present, mainstream module manufacturers have basically launched their own 5G products, and have clarified related product roadmaps. . During Double Eleven, the promotional price of 5G modules has become a bright spot in the marketing of module manufacturers.
For example, China Mobile IOT launched a limited amount of 799 yuan to buy the 5G module F02X/F03X
of Qualcomm's SDX55 chip platform. Another example, MG Smart also launched a 5G module discount event. Although
are all promotional methods, we can see the industry’s expectations for the near-term target cost of 5G modules.
Of course, the increase in the types of 5G modules and the reduction in costs cannot be accomplished by module manufacturers behind closed doors. Just as the cost of NB-IoT modules has dropped significantly, the cost reduction of 5G modules also requires joint efforts from the supply side and the demand side.
Looking at from the supply side, the core cost of 5G modules comes from the upstream chip, and the diversity of chip supply and cost reduction are more critical. Investigating the NB-IoT industry chain, we found that in addition to leading chip manufacturers such as HiSilicon, Qualcomm, Ziguang Zhanrui, MediaTek, etc., cutting-edge companies such as Mobile Core Communications, Xinyi Information, and Zhilianan have also appeared on the stage to provide differentiated chips. Contributed to module innovation and cost reduction. In the field of 5G chips, although it is difficult to add more suppliers due to the higher complexity of mobile phone chips, the chips for 5G IoT scenarios have many customized features and the complexity is much lower than that of mobile phone chips, so it is encouraged Some innovative companies have entered this field, through multiple suppliers and differentiation to achieve 5G module quantity innovation and cost reduction.
Looking at from the demand side, as an intermediate link, module manufacturers also need to explore cooperation with downstream terminal and application manufacturers to enrich industry application solutions. In the past few years, the Internet of Things has been used in various industries to varying degrees. In the future, these vertical industries need to continue to explore their digital transformation needs, expand the space and scenarios of 5G applications in their own industries, and thereby increase the demand for 5G modules. Although demand-side development is a gradual process, various pilot demonstration application projects are more critical, and these projects form the role of market education and demand inspiration.
Of course, the role of the weather vane of 5G modules does not mean that the number and price of 5G modules are the entire industry development. As a "middleware", the maturity of modules does depend on the availability of core links in the industry chain such as standards, networks, chips, applications, etc. When conditions in other links are mature, modules will be quickly ready to a large extent and directly based on corresponding indicators. Reflect it. Previously, the author once wrote in "A module of several thousand yuan, when will the 5G IoT marathon see the light?" 》ArticleIt is mentioned that the pattern of 's future 5G modules will also be multi-vendor, multi-platform choices, and prices will continue to be rationalized. However, attention to modules should not only focus on price reductions, but should also focus on 5G modules. The innovation made by the group for more industry users.
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