In January this year, Honor released Magic V - its first folding screen mobile phone. By November, the Honor Magic Vs foldable screen phone is here again.
folded screen twice a year. Is this necessary? Besides, Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 has just been released, but Honor Magic Vs can only be equipped with Snapdragon 8 Gen 1+.
is not just Honor, but the OPPO Find N2 and vertical foldable mobile phone Flip, which are expected to be released in December, will also be equipped with Snapdragon 8 Gen 1+. But for OPPO and Honor, this is not the point. The key to folding screen phones at this stage is still "weight loss".
In the preheating promotion of Honor Magic Vs foldable screen mobile phones, it repeatedly emphasized "lightweight" and "long battery life", including Honor CEO Zhao Ming also focused on promoting these two key points in the preheating video.
Picture/Honor official Weibo
"Long battery life" has not been shown first, but "light and thin" is already a consensus in almost the entire industry, and typical representatives are Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 and Huawei Mate Xs 2. The former has achieved 262g in the mainstream folding screen (inner folding) solution, and the thickness is only 11.2mm in the folding state; the latter has chosen the outer folding scheme, and the weight has reached 255g.
OPPO Find N2 is reported to be even controlled below 240g, while the weight of the iPhone 14 Pro Max is exactly 240g. This may be the first time that the folding screen phone is lighter than a regular smartphone.
is different from folding screen mobile phones. In 2022, the entire folding screen mobile phone market continues to "heavier". According to data from market statistics agency CINNO Research, the sales of foldable screen mobile phones in the Chinese market in the third quarter of 2022 reached 723,000 units, and increased by 114% year-on-year. According to public reports, domestic foldable screen mobile phone sales in the first three quarters of this year were higher than the same period last year.
In contrast, the overall smartphone market is still sluggish. In the third quarter, the shipments of China's smartphone market were about 71.13 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.9%.
vivo X Fold+, picture/vivo
The so-called "Spring River Water Warm Duck Prophet", with Honor and vivo respectively releasing their first folding screen mobile phones in the first half of this year, In addition to the rumored "doing" Apple , all mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have entered the folding screen mobile phone market.
But for folding screen mobile phone users and the entire industry, the most core change in 2022 may be in software, especially from Google releases Android 12L for folding screens and tablets to adapting WeChat, and the follow-up of the software ecosystem will make folding screens truly in-depth daily experience.
A strange flower in the cold winter of mobile phone
In September, October 2015, Apple released the iPhone 6s at the Bill Graham Municipal Auditorium in San Francisco, USA. The slogan is "The only difference is that it is different everywhere." For this reason, a lawyer from Guangzhou, He Ganlin sued Apple in Tianhe District Court. Mr. He was puzzled. The appearance of iPhone 6s is basically no different, and the technical parameters are also very small. Where did Apple get the courage to shout "It's different everywhere"?
iPhone 6s, picture/Apple
That year, iPhone sales reached its peak of 231.2 million units, and it has never surpassed it since then. The peak of the entire smartphone industry is still two years later, and by 2017, global smartphone shipments reached 1.566 billion units, and then they began to decline slowly.
By this year, mobile phone manufacturers and chip manufacturers have both lowered their orders. During Double Eleven, they have made great efforts to promote to avoid excessive inventory. The harsh overall economic environment has further aggravated the "chilliness" of the mobile phone industry. The entire mobile phone market has declined in double digits in the past three quarters.
On the other hand, when smartphones approach the ceiling of "one person's hand" and the replacement cycle of consumers is extended to 36 months, mobile phone manufacturers have to face a core reason why consumers do not change their phones - product innovation.
The key point is still to screen. In the past decade, the most core experience breakthroughs in smartphones have been gathered on the screen. From this perspective, is more suitable for 2019's Samsung Galaxy Fold than iPhone 6s.
Samsung Galaxy Fold, picture/ Samsung
On February 20, 2019, Samsung also chose to release the Galaxy Fold in the Bill Graham Municipal Auditorium - equipped with a 7.3-inch foldable AMOLOED flexible screen, which supports multiple applications to display simultaneously; in the folded state, there is also a 4.6-inch external screen that provides display, and the application will switch seamlessly in the folded and expanded state. Whether for consumers, developers, or mobile phone manufacturers, the product form of foldable screen mobile phones has brought huge imagination space.
However, the beginning of the foldable screen phone was a disaster. Samsung Galaxy Fold was exposed by the first batch of media to get the test machine, and the problem was concentrated on the screen where the foldable screen was the core. Samsung had to push the launch time again and again, and it was not officially launched on September 6 of that year. Huawei Mate X was released on February 24 and was postponed until November 15 before it finally released.
But no matter what, starting from 2020, foldable screen phones have begun to "take off" at a growth rate of more than 300%.
According to Omdia statistics, by the end of 2021, the cumulative shipment of foldable screen mobile phones worldwide reached 11.5 million units, of which 2021 saw an annual shipment of 9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 309%. According to Counterpoint tracking and forecast, the global foldable screen mobile phone market will grow by 73% to 16 million units this year from 9 million units last year. Samsung is even more optimistic, believing that global foldable screen mobile phone shipments will reach 20 million units this year.
Samsung's optimism cannot be separated from its success in the folding screen mobile phone market. By the end of 2021, Samsung's foldable screen mobile phone shipments exceeded 10 million units, accounting for 88% of the entire foldable screen mobile phone market. It is also the only manufacturer with a foldable screen mobile phone sales of over 10 million. Huawei is the second largest manufacturer in the folding screen mobile phone market, accounting for 10% of the market share of , with a cumulative sales of over one million units.
It can be said that at least as of the end of 2021, Samsung and Huawei almost occupied the entire folding screen mobile phone market, but a big part of the reason is that they launched folding screen mobile phones earlier than other manufacturers.
Now the entire mobile phone market is facing a very serious decline in sales, and foldable screen mobile phones are one of the few growths. At the same time, they are also the high-end market that can "fat-grow" in the cold winter of mobile phones. No mobile phone manufacturers want to let it go.
vivo and Honor entered this market in the first half of this year, and OPPO Find N was actually released at the end of last year. Xiaomi released the MIX Fold in March last year, but it was more like Xiaomi’s “work-hunting work” - the hardware and system were not ready, which led to not only the high rate of first-time order refunds, but the market reputation also fell to the bottom. The reputation of Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 was released in August this year.
Figure/CINNO Research
According to CINNO Research statistics, the sales of foldable screen mobile phones in China in the third quarter of this year totaled 723,000 units, of which Huawei increased by 95% year-on-year compared with last year, accounting for 53.2% of the market share; Samsung grew by 20% year-on-year, accounting for 20.5% of the market share; Xiaomi, vivo, and OPPO market share were 9%, 7.7%, and 4.6% respectively; Honor and Motorola had only 3.1% and 1.8%.
It is worth mentioning that Motorola entered the folding screen mobile phone market in 2020 with the name of razr blade, following the vertical screen folding route of Samsung Galaxy Z Flip.
is different from the public's impression. Currently, the folding screen mobile phone market occupies the main sales volume. The vertical screen folding phone represented by Samsung Galaxy Z Flip and Huawei P50 Pocket has achieved great success in the women's market due to its fashionable attributes and low price, including OPPO's upcoming launch of a vertical screen folding phone at the press conference held in December.But whether it is brand appeal or product strength, it is difficult for Lenovo and Motorola to stand out. However, due to the constant change in the screen size, vertical screen folding cannot meet more complex needs and is destined to not become mainstream.
. With Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO, Honor and other manufacturers will focus more on folding screen phones, especially when folding screen phones usher in a new round of changes, Huawei and Samsung's oligopoly pattern is likely to be further broken.
hardware platform
As it turns out, most people like large screens, otherwise Samsung Galaxy Note would not become a hit, and iPhone 6 would not become the best-selling iPhone in history. As the screen gets bigger and bigger, the size of the phone body has grown to the end, so there is a full screen transformation starting from Xiaomi MIX.
is different from the previous large screen. The full screen makes the mobile phone screen bigger, and the body size has not changed significantly. Mobile phone manufacturers have made a series of bold attempts along this direction, and eventually returned to the product form of hole-punching screens.
However, consumers' demand for larger mobile phone screens has not changed. We want to chat while browse news; we want to read strategies while playing games; we want to drag text/pictures/documents directly to WeChat, and even write Word and do PPT.
More complex consumer demands and more application scenarios are forcing the software and hardware to create better design and space. The small window function is a pure software endeavor, while the large screen can bring more essential changes.
small window function, picture/vivo official website
It can be said that the increase in the screen of smartphones is an inevitable trend. The emergence of folding screen technology and the limits of human hands have made folding screen mobile phones a breakthrough direction.
But as OnePlus founder and OPPO chief product officer Liu Zuohu and Xiaomi founder Lei Jun said, folding screens need to be "practical" first, not only to provide a large-screen experience that conventional smartphones do not have, but also to ensure a basic grip experience.
The most criticized thing about folding screen mobile phones in the early days was that they were like bricks - thick and heavy. When holding became a problem, you can’t count on consumers’ enthusiasm for using it. The problem lies in the technology and cost. The screen and hinge components alone occupy too much space and weight. Mobile phone manufacturers should also try to stuff flagship hardware configurations to match the product positioning of high-end mobile phones and the "ultra-high-end" price.
On Find N, OPPO's choice is to take a step back and make the body size smaller , and configure a 7.1-inch inner screen and a 5.49-inch outer screen - iPhone 13 mini is 5.42-inch. Compared with other folding screen phones during the same period, Find N is smaller in folding and expanding states, which is a better grip experience. The 18:9 ratio of the external screen also makes it closer to the experience of a conventional smartphone in folding state.
OPPO Find N, picture/OPPO
In other words, Find N is based on the "practical" in the folded state, and then expands the user experience of the large screen. At the same time, the starting price of the folded screen mobile phone is priced at 7,699 yuan.
Xiaomi chose "light and thin" in product definition. MIX Fold 2 has made optimizations and trade-offs in many aspects, such as changing the screen polarizer to filter , thereby reducing the thickness of the screen; adopting a narrower hinge structure, at the cost of weaker anti-creasing performance and smaller hover angles; cutting off wireless charging and X-axis linear motor.
These all come in exchange for a lighter, thinner and cheaper folding screen phone. The thickness of Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 is only 5.4mm in the expanded state, and the thickness of the folded state is only 11.2mm, and the weight is 262g. Even if it is used as a conventional flagship phone, there is no problem. And on the most important screen, the MIX Fold 2 does not give a slight discount, and it uses Samsung's top 120Hz OLED screen in a unified way. In terms of price, Xiaomi MIX Fold 2 has also been further reduced to 8,999 yuan.
Huawei Mate Xs 2 also focuses on thin and thin, but it is completely different in implementation paths.
Huawei Mate Xs 2 adopts a unique exterior folding screen solution. The most direct advantage is that there is only one large screen. A missing conventional mobile phone screen means a lighter and thinner body - the thinnest part is 5.4mm, the thickness of the fold is 11.1mm, and there is a less screen cost. At the same time, the price of Huawei Mate Xs 2 has also been reduced from the first generation of 16,999 yuan to 9,999 yuan.
In addition to the collective cost reduction brought about by the maturity of the folding screen industry chain technology, the screen is also the key to falling to 10,000 yuan. According to a report by Oriental Fortune Securities, the main and secondary screen components account for more than 50% of the material cost of foldable screen mobile phones.
But the reason only Huawei adopts this solution is largely due to a rather fatal problem - drop resistance. The screen resistance of smartphones has always been one of the directions of continuous efforts in the entire industry chain. Even so, the mobile phone screen is still very "frail", and the screen will be more fragile after folding in half.
Huawei Mate Xs 2, picture/Huawei official website
It can be foreseen that the exterior folding screen solution will still be the mainstream choice for mobile phone manufacturers, including the next Honor Magic Vs and OPPO Find N2. According to the information currently leaked, the two large-screen folding phones are also focused on extremely thinness.
Digital blogger @i Bingyu reported that OPPO Find N2 is mainly light and thin, weighing less than 240g. At the same time, Liu Zuohu also hinted that Find N2 uses brand new materials. Considering that Find N2 continues to maintain the length and width of the previous generation, in addition to the replacement of new materials, the maximum optimization should make the entire body thinner to achieve the purpose of "weight loss".
In fact, it can be understood that since the end of last year, mobile phone manufacturers have no longer focused on the "long board" of folding screen phones - large screens, but have focused more on improving the "short board" of folding screen phones. is the grip experience. Even Samsung has reduced the weight to 263g on Fold 4.
The only exception is vivo X Fold/Fold+.
First of all, mobile phone manufacturers and consumers hope that folding screen phones can ensure the grip experience, and the hardware must be the top-level configuration, which is also what folding screen phones should have high pricing. However, first ensuring a basic grip experience or a top-level hardware configuration will test the manufacturer's insight and choices in the consumer market.
vivo has chosen a completely different direction from Xiaomi. It not only uses the top-level configuration in hardware, but also achieves the current ceiling in the image configuration that is generally "downgraded" by folding screen phones, with the cost of 15mm thickness and 311g weight. The disadvantages of
are obvious. The weight of 311g is enough to discourage many potential consumers, but vivo has also launched its own differentiated competition to attract high-end mobile phone consumers who pay more attention to folding screen hardware configuration. Whether such a strategy is successful depends on subsequent market performance.
software sing opera
As mentioned above, we want a larger screen not only to "large screen", but essentially, a large screen can meet more complex consumer needs and more application scenarios.
Ideally, the large screen can run multiple applications at the same time, such as WeChat and Taobao, and can "shop" with friends at the same time; it can also implement the design of a complex function of an application, such as video editing software; it can also realize the flow of information across applications, such as dragging and dropping of pictures and documents across applications.
But the reality is that when folding screen phones encounter third-party applications, most of the situations are a failure. It is one thing that the overall sales of the folding screen is not large enough, and it is another thing that each of them is working on the Android ecosystem.
Responsive layout, picture/Google
In March this year, Google held a separate press conference for the official version of Android 12L, which can be regarded as Google finally paying attention to the folding screen mobile phone market.According to the introduction, Android 12L is designed for large-size screens and folding screen devices. It not only redesigns the multi-tasking and multi-window experience, but also adapts to large-screen devices of different sizes. More importantly, it provides developers with APIs such as responsive layout and parallel vision.
But the time point when Android 12L was released was too close to Android 13, so few manufacturers chose to follow up. The vivo X Fold released in the first half of the year was only equipped with Android 12. The OPPO Find N released at the end of last year even skipped Android 12L and directly started to adapt to Android 13. Only Samsung announced the OneUI 4.0 update plan based on Android 12L.
However, Google released Android 12L, which may have been "not here". With the release of Android 12L, Google has successively updated its development standard documents, design resources, and development tools for large-screen devices. If that's the case, there may be few developers who really respond. Android 12L, which is specially adapted to folding screens and large screen devices, is a test site provided by Google to developers and mobile phone manufacturers.
responsive layout, picture/Google
to the Android press conference in August, Google announced that all the features of Android 12L will be incorporated into Android 13. Mobile phone manufacturers and developers can finally work hard in one direction.
Before this, mobile phone manufacturers could only develop foldable screen functions based on the Android system, such as parallel vision, responsive layout, etc. The problem is that each manufacturer is too scattered, and the functions and APIs provided are different. Even if the developers see the rapid growth of foldable screen mobile phones in the high-end market, it is impossible to adapt one by one to each manufacturer.
The harder you work, the more embarrassing it is. Mobile phone manufacturers have carried out a lot of development and customization work at the system level, and have continuously improved multi-tasking, multi-window and other functions, but without third-party developers entering, the overall folding screen ecosystem is impossible to talk about. Of course, mobile phone manufacturers have also tried to start from the mainstream Top 100 applications and actively seek cooperation, including WeChat, NetEase Cloud Music, Xiaohongshu, etc. Huawei and vivo have even made UI adaptive engines, and the actual effect and application range are still too small.
Only Google can do the entire Android ecosystem. After Google provides unified API and design specifications, developers also have a clear adaptation goal, and there is no need to adapt to various mobile phone manufacturers.
At present, Google's main applications have basically completed the adaptation of foldable screens, and there are many third-party follow-ups. The most iconic ones in China are Taobao and WeChat . This means that all foldable screen phones do not need to be specially adapted, and they can directly use Taobao and WeChat, which are optimized for large-screen interactions.
The former is a nightmare for all large-screen devices. Not only Android tablets, but also iPadOS, it has basically given up adaptation. It can only be used slightly after adapting to parallel horizon . In contrast, WeChat has made more adaptations for folding screens and tablets. It not only automatically changes the application layout in the folding and expanding states, but also supports parallel vision , and can view the Moments and mini programs at the same time on split screens, or chat windows, etc.
No matter from which angle, WeChat's adaptation to folding screens has great positive significance for domestic folding screen users.
As a national-level application, there is no need to say much about the importance of WeChat in the domestic mobile Internet ecosystem. The indirect adaptation of the mini program ecosystem also improves the daily use experience of folding screen mobile phones. The adaptation of WeChat also directly unleashes the experience of conventional mobile phones and foldable screen mobile phones when using WeChat, let alone WeChat attracting the attention of other third-party applications.
written at the end
The phone is not just hardware, just like the success of iPhone lies in iOS and App Store. Of course, foldable screen mobile phones are the same. It is unrealistic to talk about experience without hardware or software.
Today, we will find that mobile phone manufacturers have gradually transitioned from the early focus on the experience and publicity of "large screens" to the "short board" of folding screens, and began to start from the basic daily grip experience, constantly improving the folding screen mobile phones, and equipped with more top-level configurations.
Xiaomi MIX Fold 2, picture/Xiaomi
But mobile phone manufacturers have never been able to solve the problem of the application ecosystem. Of course, it is not that they do not work hard, but that the position of mobile phone manufacturers in the entire Android ecosystem determines, and market share such as Samsung has never been able to dominate the developer ecosystem.
No matter what, foldable screen mobile phones have been developing for two years, Google has finally taken the attention, and more and more third-party applications have begun to adapt to foldable screens and tablet devices. The adaptation of WeChat is also a hot shot in the domestic foldable screen mobile phone market.
However, it is still not easy for domestic mobile phone manufacturers to seize the high-end mobile phone market through folding screen mobile phones. In addition to the competition between each other, Apple is still the sword of Damocles hanging on the heads of all manufacturers.
It is not surprising that Apple is making folding screens, but no one knows when Apple will be launched. However, with its control over the entire ecosystem and its appeal to developers, once Apple enters the market, it will inevitably achieve the adaptation of the application ecosystem at a faster speed, and the market for folding screen mobile phones will inevitably be another bloody storm.
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