Huawei's entry, can it help China break the automotive radar market?

[Chen Xinghua, a columnist for the strength of science and engineering]

Since the announcement of its smart car strategy at the Shanghai Auto Show in mid-April, Huawei has begun to take frequent actions in the automotive field. Recently, the company publicly stated that it would build core sensors for smart cars such as lidar and millimeter-wave radar to create an intelligent driving platform. Huawei's entry was like a thunderstorm for the domestic vehicle radar industry.

However, first of all, in terms of millimeter wave radar, although many domestic companies have entered the game, international giants still firmly control the domestic market. With lidar, independent enterprises have made some breakthroughs in the domestic and international markets. However, the manufacturing cost of lidar remains high, and mass-production vehicle projects for real-scale applications are still in the initial stage.

Before Huawei and other independent enterprises, it is still a technical and disruptive problem. However, Huawei has strong 5G technology and R&D advantages, which brings much room for imagination to the development of the domestic vehicle radar industry. So, let's take a look at the development of Huawei's vehicle radar path and related domestic enterprises.

Huawei: International blockade, non-cooperation, self-developed

More than six months ago, Huawei publicly stated for the first time that Huawei does not build cars, but only provides incremental parts to car companies, but Huawei At that time, there was no clear indication of the "increment". On October 22, Huawei’s rotating chairman Xu Zhijun stated at the 2nd World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference that Huawei will independently develop lidar and millimeter wave radars required for autonomous driving.

Huawei Rotating Chairman Xu Zhijun

Car radar is part of the four ecosystems that Huawei has built to build the MDC intelligent driving platform. In addition, Huawei will also build the CDC intelligent cockpit platform and VDC intelligent Electric platform and intelligent network connection solutions. On the whole, Huawei will rely on its AI and cloud advantages to build an intelligent driving platform based on Shengteng chips.

In terms of technology, the basic technology of vehicle radar comes from the field of information and communication technology that Huawei is familiar with. For example, millimeter wave is the transformation of wireless communication technology, and lidar is the integration of signal processing and algorithms. Huawei uses 5G technology to develop these two products with certain basic advantages.

It is reported that millimeter wave radar and lidar sensors are used by auto-driving car manufacturers to collect information about the surrounding environment of vehicles. Among them, millimeter-wave radar is generally used in low-level autonomous driving scenarios with cameras due to its low cost; while lidar has high accuracy and strong imaging capabilities, and the industry generally considers it to be a necessary component for high-level autonomous driving.

But in vehicle radar applications, the two are considered indispensable. Together, they perceive the surrounding environment at any time during the intelligent driving process, collect data, identify, detect and track static and dynamic objects, and combine the navigator map data for systematic calculation and analysis. However, although lidar has high accuracy, it is susceptible to haze; although millimeter-wave radar lacks accuracy, it can work around the clock, and targets can be seen under any circumstances.

Application of Automotive Radar Figure/Microwave Magazine

As the core sensor of autonomous driving, automotive radar is still a component that holds the industry's throat. Huawei, with its strong R&D capabilities, clearly announced its entry, which is undoubtedly good news. It will help strengthen the voice of Chinese automotive radar companies and will also build a certain degree of "catfish effect" in the domestic automotive radar industry. However, Huawei did not provide a specific product development timetable.

It is understood that Huawei began pre-research on sensor technology in 2018 as a strategic reserve. Later, Huawei wanted to cooperate with existing radar manufacturers, and only did integration from the perspective of algorithms. However, the lidar products on the market are not mature enough, and international millimeter wave radar manufacturers have always refused to sell the latest products to Huawei.

After a year of cooperation and talks, Huawei has simply turned the pre-research project into commercialization when international manufacturers have not let go. The lidar and millimeter-wave radar developed by Huawei will be installed on the models of partners, and each car is expected to be equipped with 1 to 3 lidars as standard. When several OEMs add up, Huawei's lidar may have an annual shipment of hundreds of thousands.

Due to the high manufacturing cost of lidar, Xu Zhijun said,In order to find a way to reduce the cost of lidar technology. It is reported that Huawei will develop an "imaging radar" that uses relatively low-cost millimeter-wave radar technology to achieve the effect of lidar, but this product is still under development.

Autonomous enterprise: millimeter wave radar is dim, and lidar has broken through

Although true driverless cars have to wait some time, as an advanced driving assistance system for active protection of car driving safety ( Referred to as ADAS) is gradually mature and popular. Currently, ADAS sensors that perceive the environment include millimeter wave radar, lidar, ultrasonic sensors and cameras. Among them, the first two are the most widely used core sensors for autonomous driving systems.

Hella 24GHz radar sensor

2015 World Communications Conference formulated an exclusive frequency band for vehicle-mounted millimeter wave radar, and the frequency range is specified in 76-81GHz. Currently, the frequency bands of vehicle-mounted millimeter-wave radars in various countries (including China) are mainly concentrated in 24GHz and 77GHz. As 77GHz has more advantages, future vehicle-mounted millimeter-wave radars will be dominated by 77GHz.

Most of the first batch of millimeter-wave radar companies in China were established in 2014-2016. The teams are often scientific research, military, or supplier hopping and entrepreneurial backgrounds. For example, Senstech, Hangzhou Zhibo, and Chuhang Technology from the returnees; Xingyidao, Nanjing Falcon Eye, Suzhou Anzhi and Suzhou Haomibo from the scientific research institute; Shenzhen Anzhijie and Shenzhen Chengtai from the industrial transformation group , Hunan Narai and so on.

At present, the product system of 24GHz millimeter wave radar in the domestic market is relatively mature and the supply chain is relatively stable. The core chip RF chip of 24GHz can also be obtained from chip suppliers such as Infineon, Freescale, and Carl. However, due to intellectual property rights and cooperation agreements, chip vendors such as Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and Phase One have not released the supply of 77GHz radar chips to China.

Under the circumstances that the development of domestic 77GHz millimeter-wave radar is subject to some restrictions, companies such as Beijing Xingyidao, Guangdong Desay SV, and Anhui Senstek have gradually achieved mass production of 77GHz millimeter-wave radar through independent research and development. , Began to cooperate with domestic automakers and occupied part of the domestic market share.

Millimeter-wave radar market share chart of various enterprises / billion euro

Data show that the current 24GHz radar market in China is mainly dominated by Valeo, Hella and Bosch , The total shipments account for more than 60% of the total shipments. In addition, China's 77GHz radar is dominated by Continental, Bosch and Delphi, and the total shipments account for about 80% of the total shipments.

Mymes Consulting estimated that the number of millimeter wave radars pre-installed in Chinese cars reached 1.05 million in 2016, of which 24GHz radar accounted for 63.8% and 77GHz radar accounted for 36.2%. In the future, the 77GHz radar with smaller size and longer detection range may further squeeze the market space of 24GHz radar.

Source: OFweek Smart Car Network

According to analysts’ predictions, China’s automotive millimeter-wave radar market will be 6.7 billion yuan in 2018, and it may exceed 24 billion yuan in 2020, and it will increase by 2025. Reached 31 billion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate of over 30%. The market prospect is relatively broad.

On the other hand. Domestic vehicle-mounted lidar started earlier than millimeter-wave radar. The first batch of independent enterprises specializing in lidar are Beike Tianhui and Digital Green Map, which were established in 1992. And when the autopilot is coming in 2014, Han's Laser, Yestar Technology, Zhonghaida, Guorui Technology, Sichuang Electronics, Sagitar Juchuang, Leishen Intelligent, Hesai Technology, Beixing Photonics and other lidar companies continue to Emerge.

Judging from the current status quo, autonomous vehicle lidar companies have made breakthroughs in R&D and have developed close cooperation with domestic vehicle companies. In addition, the products of some domestic manufacturers such as Sagitar Juchuang and Leishen Intelligent have successfully entered the international market, which has strengthenedThe right to speak of independent enterprises will also help to further reduce the price of lidar. But the challenge is still very daunting.

From the perspective of classification, lidar can be divided into mechanical scanning lidar and solid-state lidar. According to the number of lines, Lidar can be divided into 2D, 2.5D (1, 4, 8 lines) and 3D (16, 32, 64 lines) three types of products. Since the mass-produced car project that uses lidar on a real scale in the world is still in its infancy, independent enterprises still have opportunities.

Data source: Compiled by China Business Industry Research Institute

According to data from China Business Industry Research Institute, China’s automotive lidar market was 109 million yuan in 2015 and 193 million yuan in 2016. The year-on-year increase reached 77.06%. With the advent of the industrialization of unmanned vehicles and the reduction in the cost of on-board lidar, my country’s on-board lidar market will maintain a rapid growth trend. It is estimated that by 2021, my country’s on-board lidar market will exceed 600 million yuan.

The core chip and material technology of automotive radar needs to be improved.

From the perspective of global competition, the automotive radar market is mainly controlled by European, American and Japanese manufacturers. Among them, the technology and market of millimeter-wave radar are mainly concentrated in the hands of four well-known Tier1 (first-tier suppliers) in the world, referred to as "ABCD", namely Autoliv of Sweden, Bosch of Germany, and Continental of Germany. (Continental) and Delphi in the United States. However, Autoliv has a relatively low market share in recent years.

In addition, TRW, Valeo, Hella, Denso, Fujitsu and other companies also occupy a certain position in the global millimeter wave radar market. As far as the 77GHz millimeter-wave radar technology and market are concerned, it is also controlled by companies such as Bosch, Continental, Delphi, Denso, TRW, Fujitsu Ten, and Hitachi.

It is worth noting that the core chips of millimeter wave radar also come from international first-tier manufacturers. From the perspective of market share, the current international market for millimeter-wave radar chips is mainly occupied by chip design companies such as NXP, Infineon, and Texas Instruments. In addition, Dejie Electronics, Fujitsu, Freescale, ON Semiconductor, STMicroelectronics, Renesas Electronics, etc. occupy part of the market.

At present, the global automotive millimeter wave radar is under rapid development. Generally, cars that support ADAS function will use 2 or 3 millimeter wave radars. It is expected that the average number of bicycles using millimeter wave radar will continue to grow in the future. According to the forecast of Tuo Dai Industry Research Institute, the shipment volume of vehicle-mounted millimeter-wave radar will reach 65 million in 2018, and the annual shipment volume of vehicle-mounted millimeter-wave radar will reach 132 million in 2023. The compound growth rate from 2018 to 2023 is 15 %.

It is understood that the millimeter wave chip is a very difficult project involving a wide range of disciplines, and there is still a certain gap between domestic enterprises and the international leading level. However, with the support of national projects, corporate cooperation, and social capital, some companies have completed the research and development of fully integrated core chips for millimeter-wave radar and have gradually entered the industrialization process. The millimeter-wave radar core chip will be partially autonomous and controllable in the next 3 to 5 years.

Above: Radar disassembly diagram Below: PCB sheet antenna array

On the other hand, PCB antenna performance is very important for vehicle radar systems, they need to be launched to the target almost instantly receive. The mainstream solution for millimeter wave radar antennas is a microstrip array, which integrates a high-frequency PCB board on a common PCB substrate to realize the function of the antenna. It is necessary to maintain sufficient signal strength of the antenna in a small integration space. This puts forward higher technical requirements for PCB board companies.

However, the large-scale application of 77GHz radar will bring huge demand for corresponding high-frequency PCB boards. At present, the high-frequency PCB boards of global vehicle radar antennas are controlled by a few companies such as China Hudian Corporation, German Schweizer, American Rogers and Isola. Domestic high-frequency PCB board manufacturers have no technical reserves and can only process them according to the drawings. It’s worth mentioning that Shanghai Electric Power isBosch's PCB supplier.

In terms of lidar, Velodyne, Quanergy, and Waymo rank among the top three in the world, and the three companies are American companies. Among them, Velodyne has a big lead. The company's previously published data showed that as of March 2019, its cumulative sales of lidar products exceeded 30,000 units, with sales reaching 500 million U.S. dollars (about 3.54 billion yuan), while sales of other manufacturers were far less than Velodyne.

Picture/China Business Industry Research Institute

It is worth mentioning that Velodyne focuses on mechanical lidar. This is a radar product that can collect images in 360 degrees. It has not yet achieved large-scale and automated production, and manual production has led to high product prices. It is reported that the price of Velodyne's 64-beam lidar exceeds RMB 500,000.

Lidar can be used in many aspects such as automatic parking, ACC active cruise, automatic braking, and unmanned self-driving. At present, there are many domestic Lidar manufacturers, but the number of applications in the field of autonomous driving is very limited. The main reason is also the difficulty of mass production and the high price. It is difficult to see LiDAR modules for vehicles with less than 10,000 yuan on the market. And this is the problem that China's lidar industry urgently needs to overcome.

However, despite the high price, the global lidar market is still promising. According to TMR (U.S. Transparency Market Survey), between 2018 and 2026, the global automotive lidar market is expected to grow to 2 billion U.S. dollars, with a compound annual growth rate of 35%. In the next few years, with the in-depth development of autonomous driving and the further reduction in the cost of lidar, the automotive lidar market will usher in new growth.

Conclusion

From a technical logic point of view, millimeter wave radar and lidar are the same on the basis of the lowest level of technology. They both emit and receive electromagnetic waves and perform signal processing. In view of its powerful 5G technology, Huawei has certain advantages in the development of millimeter wave radar and lidar, or it can complete corner overtaking by developing products such as "imaging radar". However, the only way for the development of vehicle radar is the accumulation of development experience and safety tests. This is where Huawei needs to work hard to improve.

On the other hand, it can be found that the automotive radar market is basically controlled by manufacturers in the United States, Europe, and Japan. International giants such as "ABCD" have firmly grasped the world, including most of the domestic millimeter wave radar and lidar markets, relying on their first-mover technology advantages and investment and acquisition strategies. To break this situation, we need the concerted efforts of national projects, enterprises, and social capital, and we also need Huawei and other independent enterprises to be self-reliant and make breakthroughs in research and development.