Text丨Xia said about technology
"If there was fair competition, Huawei would have beaten Apple to the ground!"
"If it were not for the suppression by the United States, Huawei would have surpassed Apple long ago!"
These are two sentences that often appear in the comment area after Huawei was suppressed. Whenever I see these two sentences, I always ask the habitual question, is it true?
No one doubts Huawei’s focus and investment in R&D and innovation, but are these enough to surpass Apple? Fair competition, without US suppression, can Huawei surpass Apple? Assume a premise and then determine a result based on the assumed premise. Is such a result highly credible?
In the Q1 quarter of 2019, according to the latest report released by Counterpoint Research, a well-known international market research organization, Huawei surpassed Apple for the first time in the Chinese market in this quarter among mobile phones in the price range of 600 to 800 US dollars (4000 to 5500 yuan), with its share climbing to 48%, far exceeding Apple's 37%.
Against the background of public opinion that Huawei was suppressed by the United States at that time, this news was undoubtedly good news that caused a thunderous sound and stirred up waves with one stone for "patriots" and loyal fans of Huawei. However, perhaps due to the influence of public opinion, or perhaps due to the release of bitter beauty after a long period of time, they overlooked one thing. Of course, the possibility of selective blindness is not ruled out here.
According to the chart in the report, before the Q1 quarter of 2019, that is, the Q1, Q2, and Q3 quarters of 2018, Huawei’s sales in the Chinese market were between US$600 and US$800 (RMB 4,000-5,500). ), were being crushed by Apple, and in the Q4 quarter of 2018, Huawei began to make efforts in this price range. In the same quarter (December 6), the princess of Huawei was arrested, and the suppression of Huawei began to ferment on the Internet.
Voices such as boycotting Apple, supporting Huawei, and supporting China have begun to circulate on the domestic Internet. Will this incident have any impact on Huawei's "achievement" of surpassing Apple in the Chinese market at a price range of US$600 to US$800? Of course, whether has any impact is not the point. The point is that before reaching the price range of 600~800 US dollars in the Chinese market and surpassing Apple, the performance of Huawei mobile phone in the 600~800 US dollars price range is average!
According to the 2017 fourth quarter and 2017 full-year report on China’s smartphone market released by IDC, Huawei’s share of the high-end market over $600 in the fourth quarter of 2017 increased from 2% in the fourth quarter of 2016 to 8% in the fourth quarter of 2017. has become Apple’s powerful rival in China’s high-end market over $600. (narrator: not to offend) .
During the same period, IDC reported that iPhone X became the sales champion in China’s high-end smartphone market in the fourth quarter of 2017, completely dominating the price segment above US$600 (approximately RMB 3,778). At the same time, IDC pointed out that among the models priced over US$600 in the Chinese mobile phone market, iPhone contributed 85% of shipments.
From the above data, you should be able to see that Huawei mobile phones before 2019 are completely unqualified to compete with Apple's and . So what about Huawei after 2019? In 2019, Huawei did surpass Apple in sales and had a higher share than Apple. However, there are still too many doubts about this sales volume and its share that far exceeds Apple.
In the Q1 quarter of 2019, Huawei surpassed Apple for the first time in the mobile phone price range of 600 to 800 US dollars (4000-5500 yuan). During the same period, Apple's share of mobile phones above 800 US dollars (5500 yuan) was as high as 74%, while Huawei only had 14%.
looks back at the overall data on the retail sales of China's mobile phone market in 2019. In 2019, the actual overall share of Huawei series (including Honor ) was about 36.4%. In the 5000~8000 range, due to the strength of iPhone11, Huawei's actual share only rose to about 30%. From a performance perspective, Huawei did reach a breaking point in 2019, but in the price range of 5,000 to 8,000 yuan, Huawei still lacks the strength to compete with it.
The above data are all from the Chinese market. With the support of these data, I believe it is not difficult for everyone to see that although Huawei’s strength is strong, its focus is still mainly concentrated in the 4,000 to 5,000 yuan range. Data after 2020 will no longer be cited due to space issues. The result is still that even Huawei, which claims to be feared by the United States, is still no match for Apple in the $800 high-end mobile phone market.
Some people here may say that if it were not for the suppression by the United States or fair competition, it would be a piece of cake for Huawei to enter this segment! Really? First of all, let’s not mention whether Huawei’s explosive growth in 2019 is related to the US suppression incident. Let’s first look at the problems Huawei needs to face if it wants to enter this segment.
Let’s assume that Huawei has not been suppressed. Huawei wants to enter the high-end market with prices above US$800. Is a product that supports its foothold just needed? So does Huawei have it? You may think of folding screens, but how does the folding screen perform?
According to CINNO Research data, the sales of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market reached 723,000 units in the third quarter of 2022, and increased significantly by 114% compared with in the same period last year. Broken down by brand, in the third quarter of this year, Huawei's folding screen mobile phone sales increased by by 495% year-on-year.
Some people may be surprised when they see this news, but don’t get too happy yet! According to data from CINNO, the sales volume of folding screen mobile phones in the Chinese market in the third quarter of 2022 reached 723,000 units, with Huawei’s share of 53.2%. Therefore, we can roughly estimate that Huawei’s folding screen sales in the third quarter were about 360,000 units.
.36 million units, compared to the quarterly mobile phone sales of millions or even tens of millions, is that much? Not much, it can even be described as a drop in the bucket! So why are sales so low? Is it because Huawei cannot ship products without chips? Huawei can currently purchase Qualcomm chips. This reason is basically overturned. So what is the reason?
According to the report of Strategy Analytics, folding screen devices are still a niche field, but shipments are growing steadily. In addition, IDC data shows that global shipments of foldable mobile phones (including clamshells and folding screens) will total 7.1 million units in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 264.3%. In addition, IDC predicts that global foldable mobile phone shipments will reach 27.6 million units by 2025.
From these reports, it is not difficult to see that the folding screen is indeed eye-catching at first glance, but its market space is not large. The small market space inevitably means that the market demand is not high. If the IDC forecast data is credible, then in 2025, the global shipment sales of 27.6 million will not be as high as that of big-name mobile phone manufacturers in one quarter.
In other words, folding screens may help Huawei enter the $800 high-end market, but it will take a long time. Of course, if Huawei is able to use its local advantages to make it bigger, it does not rule out the possibility that its cycle will be shortened. But judging from the fact that Huawei is currently being suppressed by the United States and nearly the entire network is supporting Huawei. Huawei has only surpassed Apple for the first time in the high-end market priced between 600 and 800 US dollars. Huawei may not have this capability.
Since the folding screen may not be able to help Huawei enter the high-end market of $800, it seems that it can only work on its current mobile phones. At present, the Mate series and P series are Huawei's two main high-end series. Let's not talk about the performance of the Mate50 series. If Huawei wants to enter the high-end market of US$800, it must first increase the price to US$800.
So what problems will Huawei encounter if it increases the price? First of all, competition among domestic mobile phone manufacturers, based on average price, is still concentrated below 3,000 yuan (not released in 2021 and 2022). In other words, major manufacturers are still locked in a price war for sales or survival.
So what will be the result if Huawei is not suppressed? It is obvious from the previous data that Huawei cannot compete with Apple upwards, so if it wants to maintain sales, it can only go downwards and steal from other domestic mobile phone manufacturers.If you steal someone else's, will they agree?
will not! Therefore, when Huawei wants to surpass Apple, other manufacturers are also thinking that they must defeat Huawei to survive. So how can they defeat Huawei?
In terms of R&D capabilities, Huawei has recruited a lot of talents, which is unmatched by other manufacturers. In terms of R&D investment, Huawei’s R&D investment is unmatched by other manufacturers. In terms of product profits, in the field of smartphones, Apple has the largest profits in the entire global industry, followed by , Samsung, , and Huawei.
In other words, Apple takes 60% of the total, Samsung takes 20%, Huawei takes 10%, and the rest is divided among other manufacturers. This ratio may not be very accurate, but the overall pattern is roughly like this, so it is basically impossible for other manufacturers to defeat Huawei.
Excuse me, what should I do in this case? As the old saying goes, natural selection means survival of the fittest. As the saying goes, big fish eat small fish, and small fish eat shrimps. In order to defeat Huawei, or to survive, major manufacturers have taken the price war to the extreme! Xiaomi has Redmi , OPPO has realme and OnePlus, VIVO has IQOO.
While the main brands compete with each other, the sub-brands also restrict each other. In the context of the gradual convergence of smartphones, this method is very effective. The same functions and accessories are priced much lower than other brands. Although it is indeed insufficient in terms of profitability, it is indeed very effective in hitting the market and capturing sales.
So if Huawei wants to enter the US$800 market, it means that Huawei has to give up part of the market and lose part of its sales. After all, the main source of Huawei's sales is also that segment. Is Huawei willing? It is said that Honor was established to block Xiaomi, which focuses on cost-effectiveness, so the answer is obvious.
Since Huawei is unwilling to abandon the market and lose sales, the competition between the two parties is bound to continue. Under such circumstances, if it wants to increase prices, there is no strong and reasonable opportunity and reason. Is it easy to increase prices? The answer is self-evident!
So, Huawei looks very powerful now, but I guess in the field of smartphones, if there is no US suppression, it will be difficult for Huawei to surpass Apple in the price range of 600~800 US dollars!
This is not a denunciation of Huawei, but there are some things that you can't change if you want to.
