From last year to the present, the global chip market can be described as "ice and fire". As the United States continues to modify rules, the chip industry encountered a serious production capacity shortage crisis in 2021. In addition, some people maliciously hoarded goods, resulting in chip prices soaring. The chips that were originally sold for a few dollars were once speculated to three-digit numbers, which made many demand customers say they "can't afford to climb."
However, after entering 2022, the chip industry began to experience overcapacity. This dramatic reversal has made major leading companies in the world suffer. In order to clear inventory and recover funds, they have to start a "clearance" model. For example, a chip worth about 260 yuan from STMicroelectronics is now only sold for 20 yuan, but even so, customers still ignore it.
's "selling volume declines and price halved" phenomenon is almost a microcosm of the global semiconductor market in 2022, and Meixin, which mainly focuses on exports, naturally cannot avoid this "beating".
Just recently, the stock prices of US chip giants such as AMD, Intel , Nvidia, Microsoft , Philadelphia Semiconductor plummeted again, and overnight the US semiconductor market evaporated by hundreds of billions of dollars! In response to this, many netizens said that they deserved it. If it weren’t for the United States’ restriction of shipments, these American companies might not have suffered this “radical disaster.”
While US chips are "retreating step by step", TSMC's "cold winter" seems to have begun to come.
According to public information, TSMC's peak market value once exceeded US$750 billion in 2021, but before I knew it, TSMC's "value" has continued to decline, and now it is only about US$350 billion. In just one year, it has lost US$400 billion, about US$2.8 trillion! It's equivalent to falling out of Alibaba.
Moreover, as US companies such as AMD and Nvidia continue to cut orders, the decline in utilization rate of TSMC's advanced process has hit a record high. In addition, Apple has temporarily suspended the use of the 3nm process, even if TSMC has shut down some EUV lithography machines to save operating costs, it is still difficult to hide the decline.
As the saying goes, " leaks and rains all night long, ". After losing the second largest customer of Huawei , TSMC was also "studying" by US companies such as Apple. Apple and Nvidia's rejection almost made TSMC's price increase plan in 2023 fail. Although after a few days of stalemate, the farce finally ended with Apple's compromise, TSMC's right to speak in the supply chain has obviously been shaken.
The fundamental reason for this situation is that TSMC is too dependent on American technology and American chip orders, and even bows down. However, the United States does not regard it as its own person, but instead attempts to transfer its core technology.
This can be seen from the series of unfair treatments encountered by TSMC after he went to the United States to build a factory. Not only was the priority purchase right of EUV equipment deprived, but the factory construction subsidy funds obtained were far inferior to Intel. Even in terms of shipment licenses, it lags behind Korean companies such as SK Hynix , Samsung , etc.
On October 12, SK Hynix issued an announcement claiming that it reached an agreement with the United States that can ensure that the required semiconductor production equipment or components are supplied to Chinese factories within one year without obtaining individual licenses, thereby maintaining production and operation in the Chinese market.
According to Bloomberg, Samsung Electronics also received a temporary "waive" from the United States. On the contrary, TSMC cannot expand its production capacity in the mainland market. Perhaps in the eyes of the United States, Korean companies such as Intel and Samsung are more likely to control them, so they take special care of them and intend to support them to replace TSMC.
In the eyes of the outside world, if TSMC wants to stand up and bid farewell to the "cold winter" as soon as possible, the best choice is to work with the mainland market to gradually reduce its dependence on US technology.
It is undeniable that TSMC's business accounts for most of its US chip market, with only about 10% of the mainland market, but it should be understood that the ultimate sales of US chips are still the mainland market.In other words, the only one who can support TSMC's "one sky" must be his compatriots.
my country has the world's largest chip consumer market. If TSMC can recognize who is the real "father" and make the right choice, it will definitely not be a problem to have a "full fill".
But what I never expected was that when TSMC founder Zhang Zhongmou was interviewed by CBS recently, he no longer concealed his rejection of Chinese people, clamoring that if someone wanted to use force to nationalize TSMC, he would only end up with ruins. This is obviously unwilling to look back.
The lessons of Foxconn are still vivid in my mind. I wonder how long can TSMC last in the face of the excessive demands of the United States and its greed for its core technology?
