was over-hyped when the technology was still immature, which was not conducive to technological development and was particularly harmful to start-up companies. Companies in the industry hope to avoid the quantum winter through patient development.
An IBM quantum computer
Some quantum computing observers claim that the quantum winter is coming. During the cold winter, large companies will significantly reduce their investment, and investors will also stay away from start-up companies in the industry. Sabine Hossenfelder, a physicist at the Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy, claimed in a November 2022 video: "The quantum winter is coming, and the bubbles that were once blown will burst. This is bound to happen sooner or later."
The current status of the quantum computing industry in 2022 may be confirming her prediction. The stock price of , , of the listed Quantum Company has plummeted, and small companies are also seeking to stay together for warmth. There are eight known ongoing mergers in the industry.
However, at Q2B, an industry conference in the industry in December 2022, industry insiders were still full of confidence. Various players are vying to show their progress, and researchers from large companies are actively discussing ongoing projects and are more optimistic about research and financing .
analyst Doug Finke of Global Quantum Intelligence said on Q2B that the statement of quantum winter is a bit exaggerated, but industry participants may suffer a little frostbite.
Quantum computing relies on the physical properties of microscopic particles to complete tasks that conventional computers (existing mobile phones, computers, and even supercomputers) cannot complete. The advent of large-scale quantum computers that can be used for practical applications will take at least several years.
However, as the performance of conventional computers has developed to a high level and it is difficult to squeeze out more oil, the progress in the field of quantum computing is still encouraging. Even current quantum computers are still experimental prototypes and cannot do most of the things that conventional computers can do. People are still full of expectations for quantum computing, expecting it to revolutionize the world, develop better batteries, accelerate financial calculations, design more efficient aircraft, discover new drugs and improve AI computing performance.
Experts and entrepreneurs in the field of quantum computing have been keenly aware of the risks of quantum winter. The development experience of AI technology is often used as a reference. Since its birth, AI has been unable to bring real benefits for decades until it suddenly exploded. During the Q2B meeting, many participants mentioned that quantum computing needs to avoid the lessons learned from the over-hyped AI in its early stages.
A Finnish quantum computer
People in the industry are most concerned about how to put quantum computing into practical applications. Although quantum computers can only solve relatively simple problems in various fields, large companies in traditional industries, including JPMorgan Chase, Ford, Airbus, BMW, Novo Nordisk, Hyundai and BP, are all investing in research and development and exploring pilot projects (proof-of-concept, POC).
Large companies in traditional industries generally choose large and small technology companies as partners to invest in this field. IBM, Google , Amazon , Microsoft and Intel have all invested a lot of resources in the field of quantum computing. In addition, governments such as the United States, France, Germany, China, and Australia are also allocating funds to support quantum computing technology.
The underlying technical foundation of conventional computers is binary arithmetic, where a bit is either 1 or 0. The underlying technology of quantum computing is completely different. Its smallest unit is qubit (qubit), which can record the combination of 1 and 0 through superposition state. Superposition states are connected through a microscopic phenomenon called entanglement, which can provide states far beyond what a conventional computer's binary system can store.
The problems faced by existing quantum computers are that it is difficult to increase the number of qubits (IBM's Osprey quantum computer has 433 qubits), and that qubits are difficult to control. Qubits are very easily perturbed, thereby disrupting calculations, thus limiting the number of possible operations. The error rate of a single operation of the most stable quantum computer available is about one thousandth, which is much higher than the error rate of conventional computers. The current method is to run quantum calculations multiple times and obtain useful results through statistical means.
The existing quantum computer is a noisy intermediate-scale quantum type (Noisy Intermediate-Scale Quantum, NISQ). It is still uncertain whether this type of quantum computer can actually be used to solve practical application problems.
Quantum computing experimental device
All quantum computer designers are working hard to move towards a more advanced fault-tolerant type era. The qubits of fault-tolerant quantum computers are more stable and can be aggregated to form long-term surviving logical qubits. Logical qubits can self-correct errors to survive longer. In the fault-tolerant era, quantum computers will truly show their power. It is generally believed that we need to wait at least 5 years.
Preventing over-hyping is one of the challenges that needs to be faced during the development of quantum computing technology.
Google released the very eye-catching " quantum supremacy " results in 2019. Although in fact, in the results displayed at that time, the quantum computer only defeated conventional computers in an academic task that was not practical. Caltech physicist John Preskill has been urging for years to avoid overhyping. Companies in the industry now pay more attention to producing results that exceed those of conventional computers in practical applications.
Quantum computing technology itself has great potential for change, and the change is groundbreaking, which has aroused the interest of investors.In the past 14 months, three quantum computing companies have successfully gone public, all choosing the faster SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) method instead of the traditional IPO. First came IonQ in October 2021, followed by Rigetti in March of that year and D-Wave in August.
However, secondary capital markets have not been friendly to technology companies in recent months. IonQ is trading at half its listing price, D-Wave is down about three-quarters, Rigetti is trading at about one-tenth of its initial price, and the founding CEO is about to leave.
Although there have been no cases of quantum computing startup failure, some acquisitions and mergers indicate that the prospects for small companies to work together for warmth will be more optimistic. Among them, Honeywell Quantum Solutions merged with Cambridge Quantum to form Quantinuum in 2021; Pasqal merged with Qu&Co in 2022; ColdQuanta (newly renamed Infleqtion) acquired Super.tech.
What is optimistic is that overhype in the quantum computing industry is not widespread. At the Q2B conference, quantum computing advocates were measured in their predictions and cautious about when a breakthrough might come. Comments that quantum computing technology will be "hyped" are for a few cases. Advocates of
are more willing to talk about the achievements of quantum computing technology in its continued and steady progress. Manufacturers have gradually increased the size of quantum computers, improving the software and reducing the qubit-perturbing noise that hinders calculations. Competition in the industry is more rational, and technology road planning in the next few years is also more patient.
For example, Google achieved its first error correction milestone in 2022, expects the next milestone around 2025, and then has two more milestones planned before delivering a truly powerful quantum computer in 2029. Roadmaps from companies like Quantinuum and IBM are equally detailed.
A Google quantum computing device
New quantum computing projects continue to emerge. AWS previously rented a third-party quantum computer and opened the Braket service on the cloud, and now it has also announced plans to build its own quantum computer. At Q2B, the Novo Nordisk Foundation, run by the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, announced that it will provide funding for a bioscience quantum computer project at the Niels Bohr Institute of the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. The long-term project aims to use quantum computing to solve life science problems by 2035. Physicist Peter Krogstrup Jeppesen left his quantum computing research position at Microsoft to lead the project.
Some startups have already felt the chill of the capital market. Qedma CEO, Asif Sinay said that financing is more difficult. The company's error suppression technology is designed to help squeeze more available computing power from quantum computers. However, Asif Sinay is relatively optimistic about the current situation of the company and the industry. The existing funds are still sufficient and there is no need to rush to attract investment.
Duncan Stewart of the Business Development Bank of Canada admitted that keeping up with the technology roadmap is crucial for startups. Quantum computing startups in which the bank has invested, including Quebec's Nord Quantique, "will live or die based on whether they can complete technology milestones in 18 months," the investment manager said.
But Tony Uttley, chief operating officer of Quantinuum, believes that entrepreneurial difficulties will not cause a quantum winter. He believes that there may be two scenarios that can trigger a quantum winter: a large quantum computing company stops investing or the technological progress of the entire industry stagnates.
The quantum computing industry does not put all its eggs in one basket. The industry is exploring a variety of technology implementation routes, including ion trapping, superconducting circuits, neutral atoms, electrons on semiconductors and optical quantum bits. Oskar Painter, a physicist responsible for quantum hardware at
AWS, said: "The entire industry is still quite far away from a universal quantum computer that can handle practical business problems." But even though he claims to be a pessimist, he believes that the path to exploration of quantum computing is clear, and breakthrough progress may not be far away.
In the past 14 months, three quantum computing companies have successfully gone public, all choosing the faster SPAC (Special Purpose Acquisition Company) method instead of the traditional IPO. First came IonQ in October 2021, followed by Rigetti in March of that year and D-Wave in August.However, secondary capital markets have not been friendly to technology companies in recent months. IonQ is trading at half its listing price, D-Wave is down about three-quarters, Rigetti is trading at about one-tenth of its initial price, and the founding CEO is about to leave.
Although there have been no cases of quantum computing startup failure, some acquisitions and mergers indicate that the prospects for small companies to work together for warmth will be more optimistic. Among them, Honeywell Quantum Solutions merged with Cambridge Quantum to form Quantinuum in 2021; Pasqal merged with Qu&Co in 2022; ColdQuanta (newly renamed Infleqtion) acquired Super.tech.
What is optimistic is that overhype in the quantum computing industry is not widespread. At the Q2B conference, quantum computing advocates were measured in their predictions and cautious about when a breakthrough might come. Comments that quantum computing technology will be "hyped" are for a few cases. Advocates of
are more willing to talk about the achievements of quantum computing technology in its continued and steady progress. Manufacturers have gradually increased the size of quantum computers, improving the software and reducing the qubit-perturbing noise that hinders calculations. Competition in the industry is more rational, and technology road planning in the next few years is also more patient.
For example, Google achieved its first error correction milestone in 2022, expects the next milestone around 2025, and then has two more milestones planned before delivering a truly powerful quantum computer in 2029. Roadmaps from companies like Quantinuum and IBM are equally detailed.
A Google quantum computing device
New quantum computing projects continue to emerge. AWS previously rented a third-party quantum computer and opened the Braket service on the cloud, and now it has also announced plans to build its own quantum computer. At Q2B, the Novo Nordisk Foundation, run by the pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk, announced that it will provide funding for a bioscience quantum computer project at the Niels Bohr Institute of the University of Copenhagen in Denmark. The long-term project aims to use quantum computing to solve life science problems by 2035. Physicist Peter Krogstrup Jeppesen left his quantum computing research position at Microsoft to lead the project.
Some startups have already felt the chill of the capital market. Qedma CEO, Asif Sinay said that financing is more difficult. The company's error suppression technology is designed to help squeeze more available computing power from quantum computers. However, Asif Sinay is relatively optimistic about the current situation of the company and the industry. The existing funds are still sufficient and there is no need to rush to attract investment.
Duncan Stewart of the Business Development Bank of Canada admitted that keeping up with the technology roadmap is crucial for startups. Quantum computing startups in which the bank has invested, including Quebec's Nord Quantique, "will live or die based on whether they can complete technology milestones in 18 months," the investment manager said.
But Tony Uttley, chief operating officer of Quantinuum, believes that entrepreneurial difficulties will not cause a quantum winter. He believes that there may be two scenarios that can trigger a quantum winter: a large quantum computing company stops investing or the technological progress of the entire industry stagnates.
The quantum computing industry does not put all its eggs in one basket. The industry is exploring a variety of technology implementation routes, including ion trapping, superconducting circuits, neutral atoms, electrons on semiconductors and optical quantum bits. Oskar Painter, a physicist responsible for quantum hardware at
AWS, said: "The entire industry is still quite far away from a universal quantum computer that can handle practical business problems." But even though he claims to be a pessimist, he believes that the path to exploration of quantum computing is clear, and breakthrough progress may not be far away.
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